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The Long Emergency

17K views 259 replies 83 participants last post by  salmontree 
#1 ·
(Mods, I would like to have a discussion of the issues in this book relating to finances, rather than a literary discussion.)

Are other mamas here familiar with this book by James Kunstler? (There's an article that very briefly recaps the material in the book here, bear in mind the numbers given in that article are from 2005 and the price of oil is already more than double the value cited there.) I read it a couple years ago and it seriously scared the pants off me. I was horribly depressed for like a month. Then I guess I became resigned, like, whatever's going to happen will happen regardless of how much I fret about it.

We're now IMO well into the beginning stage of the scenario Kunstler outlined, where food prices have skyrocketed partly because of the increased cost of oil, and partly because a large amount of food crop has been diverted into "alternative energy".

When I read some of the other threads on this forum, I'm a little shocked at how a lot of people are perceiving the increased food and energy costs as merely an inflation problem, or signs of a recession. In other words, something that will be tough for a while, but will pass or we'll somehow adjust to. I see threads about what kind of car would be a good purchase, or if increasing gas costs would encourage one to move closer to work, with the pros and cons kind of coming down to budget and lifestyle preferences.

I hate to be all chicken little about it, but under Kunstler's scenario, private vehicles wil become obsolete. Subdivisions located beyond reasonable biking distance (or accessible public transport) from employment centers are predicted to become slums. It just seems like by the point the majority of people realize the severity of the crisis, they are not going to have the availability of choices in housing and transportation they are expecting to have.

We have done what we can. We have chickens, and a garden, and live within walking/biking distance of virtually anywhere we need to go. I still have a car, but only because being that it's paid off and I drive very little, there's no financial gain in giving it up. Might as well hang on to the convenience as long as gas can still be bought.

Just wondering where other MDC families are at on this issue. Do you know about it? Have you made lifestyle choices/changes in anticipation? Do you think we're really now IN "The Long Emergency"? Or do you think the predictions are exaggerated and things will somehow work out?
 
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#153 ·
Has anyone started conversations with their extended families about these issues? We tried with each set of parents/step-parents with mixed results. The most poignant for me was a discussion about how life will have to change with FIL and SMIL. They made several justifications of how frugal/eco-sensitive they were their SUV was mid-sized after-all, and they decided not to move into the 3500 sqft house nearby. Instead they stayed in their 2500 sq ft house. Didn't I realize both were smaller than their neighbors?!?
(BTW - this isn't a laugh at all SUV owners or families with mid-sized houses. It is intimately knowing this particular couple's love of excess and their ability to justify anything.)

Anyone else an apple that fell far from the tree? Tips for how to talk about the issues of food and energy scarcity and the possibility of a coming emergency?
 
#154 ·
Seeking Joy, I am another apple that fell far from the tree. My parents take on rising gas prices was, oh , maybe we will have to try and combine some of our errands. This from retired people who truly don't have many places they have to be but are constantly running around anyway. I've preferred doing things "the old-fashioned way" for as long as I can remember. Mom kept trying to give me a mixer but finally understood that a plain ole wooden spoon was my favorite tool. A long time ago I read a book about the Plain people titled How do they live without electricity? It was quite interesting.
 
#155 ·
Quote:

Originally Posted by majazama View Post
Just wondering; Is the long emergency supposed to be centred in the states? Does he mention other countries, such as the canadian neighbours?

It's fairly US-centric in talking about the policies and denial/lack of planning that have got us to this point. But the overall issues are going to affect anyone around the globe who wants to, say, drive a car, or keep their house warm in winter, etc. Also an American economic crisis is expected to affect other nation's economies pretty significantly as well.
 
#156 ·
One fun way to prepare with children is to join a group like the SCA (society for creative anachronism http://www.sca.org/). From the homepage:

Quote:
The SCA is an international organization dedicated to researching and re-creating the arts and skills of pre-17th-century Europe. Our "Known World" consists of 19 kingdoms, with over 30,000 members residing in countries around the world. Members, dressed in clothing of the Middle Ages and Renaissance, attend events which may feature tournaments, arts exhibits, classes, workshops, dancing, feasts, and more. Our "royalty" hold courts at which they recognize and honor members for their contributions to the group.
For a small membership fee you can learn to cook, sew, hunt, spin, weave, build, forge, grow, navigate, debate, dance, brew, design, etc. You can find experts/teachers for more or less anything any of the European societies did between ~700ce and 1600ce. From the seriously practical (identify wild foods, start a fire, clean a rabbit, hunt with a dog, prepare safe food without running water/artificial cooling systems) to the more elaborate skills (lampwork, forging, tanning, weaving). And it's all done with a huge sense of fun and play and shared experience.

Not to mention SCA events are inexpensive "learning" holidays for a larger family or family with children since events usually have a few free classes, activities just for children, camping, feasting, and more for under 10 dollars/person. And how much fun is it to watch knights in armor fighting with long swords or rapiers, to watch an artisan at their craft, and to take part in the dancing/singing yourself (or learn the arts, including sword work if you like).

And although it's a bit "odd" as a hobby, it's certainly easier to get people interested (and learning despite themselves) if you're not phrasing it as "the world as we know it is coming to an end and we must all know how to live without a fridge/freezer".
 
#157 ·
Quote:

Originally Posted by p.s View Post
as in ....." when I was a kid, there used to be disposable plates, and spoons and forks.
And people used to drive cars the size of a house!
And there used to be something called a lawn, and neighbors would compete on who had the greenest, weed free lawn.
And some places, everybody had a swimming pool."

maybe change is a little good, huh?

Try explaining airplanes!!
 
#158 ·
Quote:

Originally Posted by SeekingJoy View Post
Has anyone started conversations with their extended families about these issues?


Let's just say we're the only ones in my family with a house that's less than 2000 sq. feet.
 
#159 ·
Quote:

Originally Posted by wombatclay View Post
One fun way to prepare with children is to join a group like the SCA (society for creative anachronism http://www.sca.org/). From the homepage:

For a small membership fee you can learn to cook, sew, hunt, spin, weave, build, forge, grow, navigate, debate, dance, brew, design, etc. You can find experts/teachers for more or less anything any of the European societies did between ~700ce and 1600ce. From the seriously practical (identify wild foods, start a fire, clean a rabbit, hunt with a dog, prepare safe food without running water/artificial cooling systems) to the more elaborate skills (lampwork, forging, tanning, weaving). And it's all done with a huge sense of fun and play and shared experience.
It looks interesting, but I have zero interest in wearing costumes.
 
#160 ·
I'm almost done readaing this book- it is so fascinating! And true...

I've been following this thread (though this is my first contribution to it) as I've been reading and I just ahve to say you all have some great views and ideas, and I've learned quite a few things reading here!

Quote:

Originally Posted by SeekingJoy View Post
Has anyone started conversations with their extended families about these issues?
Absolutely. I don't think my IL's take it all very seriously, but my mom is totally on the same page as me, so we talk about it a lot.

Quote:

Originally Posted by zeldabee View Post
It looks interesting, but I have zero interest in wearing costumes.

You totally do not have to wear costumes. Most do, but not all. When I was younger my best friends family was way involved in the SCA and I went to several events with them, I rarely wore any sort of costume, and nobody seemed to mind, there were always at least a few others without costumes too. It is way fun stuff, even if you don't like the idea of costumes, if you like the other stuff it is definately worth giving it a try!

ETA I see you're in Beaverton- there is an SCA group based in Washington County their website: http://www.dragonsmist.org/
 
#161 ·
Quote:

Originally Posted by A&A View Post
Try explaining airplanes!!
I haven't read this thread thoroughly yet, but I do occasionally read Sharon's blog, which I saw was mentioned earlier, and I've been thinking about this subject a lot lately. Just yesterday, as my friend and I were pointing out an airplane to our kids -- not unusual since we live fairly close to a major airport -- I thought, "I wonder if someday, in my son's lifetime or even in mine, this won't be such a common sight?"

This topic scares the hell out of me. I know in some ways it would be better to go back to simpler times. But generally it makes me feel as if the whole world is ending and that there's ultimately not much I can do to prepare. I mean, we live just outside a major metropolitan city in a lovely older walking community and I REALLY don't want to move somewhere with bigger yards or out in the country. I just don't. I do plan on developing our tiny yard into raised bed gardens and learning how to grow our own food on a bigger scale, and hopefully how to can food as well. But we can't have chickens so I'm not sure what else we could do.

I am thinking of putting a wood-burning stove insert into our fireplace (we have a 79-year old house with a traditional fireplace in it that needs chimney work anyway). Does that seem wise?

I guess one good thing is that we're right on one of the great lakes (1-2 miles away). Another is that we can walk to almost everything. But the food thing scares me.

Maybe I should read the book and this thread...
 
#162 ·
I was surprised to hear my husband say last night that we might be forced to be a one car family. We are trying to figure out a preschool for DD. While a nearby option is expensive, it's right on the frequent bus line. So right now it is feeling like a front-runner.

I was surprised that he is thinking along the lines of long term societal changes, too.

Cities will still be sustainable, I think. But they will definitely be changed. More limited (seasonal) produce options, more locally produced foods, more self-produced food. I think electricity (any power, really) will become more and more expensive and some uses will be a luxury. I'm already going through the house turning off all the lights and fans in the rooms we aren't in.
 
#163 ·
SCA- yeah, costumes/garb are optional though obviously the group is geared towards medieval stuff so most people are going to dress up. Large events tend to be "please wear garb" but the smaller meetings and classes are generally in street clothes. DH and I have been members since we were little (our parents are/were in the SCA) and we grew up knowing how to do a lot of the things people are now thinking about learning... like "what do you do if there isn't a fridge/freezer and no hot running water and you've only got a wood oven and an open fire but you still have to feed a dozen people without risking food poisoning?". Even if you don't attend meetings, there are lots of SCA websites that present this sort of stuff in a fun atmosphere... which can help get family and friends (or children) on board with preparations.

Which is why I mentioned it
The SCA isn't a "survival/homestead" type group but it does teach members useful "survival/homestead" skills while keeping the whole thing fun/interesting/non-threatening. Which means it may be easier to get other people on board... you avoid the whole "society is dooooOOOOOooooommmmmmed" (thank you Zim!) discussion with the henny penny accusations. Of course, some family and friends will probably still think you're crazy, but such is life!
 
#164 ·
Quote:

Originally Posted by wombatclay View Post
open fire but you still have to feed a dozen people without risking food poisoning?".
I had to comment on this. A friend and her DH are Civil War reenactors. Their kitchen is being remodeled and she was joking about cooking over an open fire in the backyard - since she has always cooked over an open fire for reenactments.
 
#165 ·
Yup, almost any of the historical reenactment or recreation groups will teach you these skills (assuming you want to learn, and you're not going to just stick a cooler and a coleman under a tarp). Just look around and see what is available!

EcoVillages, Modern Primatives, Outward Bound, even scouting are all other options for learning these skills in a hands on way while having fun focusing on other things.
 
#166 ·
Oh yeah, I have friends who do Rendezvous, the whole wagon train bit. (Maybe that's bigger in the Midwest.)

Did anyone watch 1890s House? They lived in a Victorian in the city, but in that tiny backyard they had a garden and chickens. I think (I hope!) that as the foodscape changes, maybe the rules against chickens will be changed.

As my midwife's bumper sticker says: "When chickens are outlawed, only outlaws will have chickens!"
 
#167 ·
I am reading this book right now and have been blown away by what I'm seeing. The things he's written down are what have been floating thru my head recently. All the systems we have built are based on a finite, non-renewable resource that is quickly running out. The future looks very scary. I am normally an optimistic person but not so much this time.
I am just doing every thing I can to try to insulate my family from the effects of the coming times. Someone asked about retirement and I am thinking similar thoughts. We plan on trying to be as self-sufficient and as low maintenance as possible during our senior years.

A lot of the things in his book are ALREADY happening. Like suburbs turning into slums. Recent foreclosures have caused this already in parts of the country and I heard about this on CNN. Gas is going to go UP, not down. Why would they lower prices, if we're already paying 4 bucks a gallon? I just traded my SUV for an economy car and have already felt the difference.

I'm trying to grow some tomatoes, dry clothes on the line, reduce electricity, set thermostat at 79 (and I live in HOTTTTT southern Georgia), condense shopping trips, cloth diaper, and am teaching myself to sew. I am preparing myself and family for hard times, because I believe they are coming.

Those with skills (carpentry, growing, building, sewing, etc) are going to be the ones we will need as our communities move more towards a local economy out of necessity. The signs are already here, I just hope it's not as bad as he predicts.
 
#169 ·
I just waded through this whole thread for my exciting Saturday night.


I'm not a huge fan of Kunstler but I do love Sharon Astyk. Kunstler is just a little too gleeful at the prospect of what effectively works out to the deaths of millions for me. But I am glad that Kunstler came up with the title The Long Emergency because it fits the situation perfectly.

Quote:

Originally Posted by MomInFlux View Post
I find myself baffled by those (not necessarily in this thread) who believe that technology and innovation and the powers that be will save us and all will be just fine. And that people survived just fine before petroleum and will survive after petroleum. As A&A pointed out, pre-oil, there were a whole lot FEWER people, and a whole lot MORE resources to go 'round. And we're not just talking peak oil. We're talking peak oil and climate change and looming financial crisis. Hydrogen cars alone aren't going to reduce carbon emissions enough to head off global warming.
I am of two minds about this. I do think that the forces of human innovation and the market will bring us out of the current mess eventually (probably at the same time landing us into a new one that we're not even aware of now that will eventually become the next problem to solve). However, I don't think of it as "saving" because I don't think that process will be a very pleasant one for most of us. So, will we get through it? Yes, eventually we'll muddle through, and I think innovation and technology will come with that process, but it's going to be very, very hard.

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Originally Posted by wombatclay View Post
This may have been addressed I read the first two pages then skimmed) but if the assumption is a total lack of resources for personal vehicles, how does this integrate with the idea of moving back to the land?
One of the major problems I have with Kunstler and his cohort is that I think they've got an unrealistic and borderline fetishistic view of living in the country. I'm from an extended family of homesteaders, people who live off the land significantly. I have a lot of first-hand experience with that life, and the idea that people can just homestead as a solution to peak oil strikes me as naive and ignorant. Rural living now, even for those who homestead, is tremendously dependent on cheap oil. Living a rural life without oil is extremely difficult (of course this really depends where you are, but speaking in generalities here).

I think urban, walkable areas might perhaps have more likelihood of violence but in a post-peak-oil world, in general I think they'll be easier places to live.

Quote:

Originally Posted by p.s View Post
Firstly it may be worth remembering that until recently, life for most humans was a miserable and mean existence. You start working very young, you do a lot of work while there is light, then you go to bed when dark and repeat when the sun again rises. You do this 7 days a week (weekends being a recent phenomenon) and die sometime in your 30's-40's. Food and shelter were the main goals and hunger was a common feeling.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dar View Post
All my books are packed away now 'cause we're moving, but I read an anthropological study of (I think) the !Kung San in southern Africa, done maybe 50 years ago, that found that everyone got more than enough to eat (including enough protein, fat, etc), people under about 18 and over 60 or so didn't really work at all, and the typical adult worked an average of about 18 hours a week. By "work" he meant food gathering, hunting, food preparation. This isn't true of the !Kung San any more, but it was then.
I think it's reasonable to say that for a lot of human existence, life was pretty miserable. Even in communities that had luck with the weather, no major natural disasters, luck with war for a period of time, natural abundance (e.g., the !Kung San at the time of the study) still lived very, very hard lives. For starters, for the majority of human existence, humans have lived with very high rates of infant mortality, infanticide, etc., even in those places with otherwise serendipitous circumstances. Add to that accepted practices like slavery, rigidly enforced social rankings and other problems, and it's not a pretty picture. (I'm not saying we're really enlightened now about all this. I doubt there is a consumer in the entire western world who hasn't bought something made with slave labor at some point; just that we shouldn't idealistically whitewash life before oil.)

Quote:

Originally Posted by JTA Mom View Post
Not only that, but in MIL's HOA she is not allowed to run the dishwasher/washer/dryer before 8am or after 10pm.


That is crazy-making.
 
#170 ·
Okay I have clicked on this thread at least four times.
  • I'm scared to read the posts because I'm worried I'll become anxious about the state of things
  • I checked out the book but I'm also scared to read it.
  • I feel like we're moving in a direction of preparedness but I really don't want to feel helpless and afraid that something will come crashing in at any moment
  • I alread feel this way a little bit and am afraid this book/thread will feed it, and yet I still click...
:
hale:
 
#171 ·
Quote:

Originally Posted by wombatclay View Post
One fun way to prepare with children is to join a group like the SCA (society for creative anachronism http://www.sca.org/).

I love SCA! If the local chapter had actually formed (but the lady spearheading it died) we so would have joined! The closest chapter is 40 min away
I did get to go to a couple of meetings though, so much to learn, so little time!
 
#172 ·
Quote:

Originally Posted by leerypolyp View Post
Oh yeah, I have friends who do Rendezvous, the whole wagon train bit. (Maybe that's bigger in the Midwest.)

Did anyone watch 1890s House? They lived in a Victorian in the city, but in that tiny backyard they had a garden and chickens. I think (I hope!) that as the foodscape changes, maybe the rules against chickens will be changed.

As my midwife's bumper sticker says: "When chickens are outlawed, only outlaws will have chickens!"

Oh! Did you see ranch house! That was so much better! IMO.

Just finished my first look through of The self-reliant homestead. Has lots of interesting things, most of it is geared toward those with land though. Still good reading.
 
#173 ·
Quote:

Originally Posted by tinybutterfly View Post
Things would be bad at first, people would have to make changes and they would.

Honestly, I would be more afraid to live in an urban area during such a crisis if it should occur.

Life would change. It might be more like our grandparents or great-grandparents lives and they managed.

In general, people are adaptable, resourceful and clever when they have to be.

But...I am an optimist.

Excellent points
 
#174 ·
Quote:

Originally Posted by A&A View Post
Yes and No. Kunsler's point is that subdivisions have neither the benefits of the rural areas NOR the benefits of the city. So, "suburbia" is the WORST of both worlds. I think Kunsler actually leans toward rural living.......where supposedly less violence will take place because you'll have fewer people.
Urban design theorists have been writing about this for years. "The Geography of Nowhere" is a good one. Going back further, any of the Jane Jacobs books are great.
By the 1950s, we had forgotten everything we ever learned about building functional towns. The automobile lobby had incredible success in killing public transit. It's sad all around.
 
#175 ·
Quote:

Originally Posted by Azuralea View Post

I think it's reasonable to say that for a lot of human existence, life was pretty miserable. Even in communities that had luck with the weather, no major natural disasters, luck with war for a period of time, natural abundance (e.g., the !Kung San at the time of the study) still lived very, very hard lives. For starters, for the majority of human existence, humans have lived with very high rates of infant mortality, infanticide, etc., even in those places with otherwise serendipitous circumstances. Add to that accepted practices like slavery, rigidly enforced social rankings and other problems, and it's not a pretty picture. (I'm not saying we're really enlightened now about all this. I doubt there is a consumer in the entire western world who hasn't bought something made with slave labor at some point; just that we shouldn't idealistically whitewash life before oil.)
I'm back! lol

As for the !Kung San and natural abundance, they lived in the harshest region with the least natural abundance and still did pretty well.

What I was trying to say was not that life wasn't hard, but that it STILL is hard, kwim? Back then, yes, many infants died. They still do outside of the Developed countries. So there hasn't been much change there.

But, back in the day, people were also not killed in driving accidents. Wars were horrible (still are), but one could run away without worrying that bombs were falling from the sky. Etc, etc, etc.

Life, I think, OVERALL, hasn't gotten much better or worse, just DIFFERENT. Yes, we don't need to worry about 3/4 of our children dying young, but people back then didn't have to worry about getting killed/maimed by cars, massive hard-core drug problems (think heroin, meth), etc. Then again, right now, we are sorely missing the close physical connections to friends & family. Until recently, humans have lived very close to family & friends. How many of us can say we live next door to either a close friend or family? This creates a different type of stress on us. So while life wasn't easy in the past, I don't think it's much easier now. I think we just have gotten too attached to creature comforts to think about it being otherwise.

Ami
 
#176 ·
I haven't read the book, but I'm reading about this more in general now, and have a couple other books on order. The thing that bugs me about the indictment of suburbia is that it's often painted with a (biased) general brush. I used to rent in a suburb that was on the city transit line, and was more like an extension of the city. I also grew up in a quiet suburb that was on the train line, had a small central uptown, and I walked everywhere- to school, the library, parks. My mom biked to get groceries. I'd rather be in a suburb like that than a more crowded city should things disintegrate. Isolated, car-culture suburbs are not at all ideal, but around here they're often cheaper too, which is why I guess some people choose to live there. But not all of "suburbia" is subdivision urban sprawl, so I guess when some people go on about the "suburbs" the generalizations get on my nerves a bit.

I'm looking forward to reading "the Party's Over" and a few others I found on amazon reading reviews. I also just pulled Jared Diamond's (of Gun, Germs, and Steel fame) Collapse off of my shelves. I had forgotten about it. I"m hoping those are informative without being alarmist.

I'm inclined to think that a our economy will be forced to go more green and most Americans will be forced to follow suit. If that's where the money is, that's what happens. Incidentally I know of more and more people- educated, traveled people- moving closer to extended family. I think there is already a huge trend toward localing food sources, moving closer to family, slowing down, working less, being greener, downsizing lifestyles. But maybe that's just me or maybe it's just trendy and not substantial.


Before reading some of this stuff, I assumed we'd go the way of Europe and, with these higher gas prices, just stop driving so much and adapt. I think our economy will go greener b/c it has no choice. Reading some captions from his book, my first reaction is that he enjoys coming up with scary scenarios. To answer the OP, I've had some alarm for awhile just about the economy, and the more I read the more I might worry about food shortages, violence, etc. I tend to be a worrier, and I'd like to be more self-sufficient for a lot of reasons. But from what I've read of his predictions, I'm not worried that much.
 
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