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I don't understand vaccine statistics!  

post #1 of 11
Thread Starter 
Ah, researching vaccines . . . one of the most proven ways to give myself a headache. Basically my situation is that I gave birth back in California where I took it for granted that finding a nonvaxing friendly pedi wasn't TOO much of a hassle. Now our family is stationed over in South Korea where there is only 1 pediatrician! I have researched vaccines long ago but since all the information made me flip flop between no vaccines to delaying to selective to none etc. I decided to give it a rest and delay until my daughter is at least 2.

Well, I wanted to take my daughter to a check up because I wanted to get to know the doctor better. When the topic came to vaccines, I claimed we didn't for religious reasons. Other doctors I've seen just went, "Okay," so when the doctor asked what religion I was I went something like, "We're Catholic. There are aborted fetuses, uh, CDC, er, books I've read . . . no, I don't believe the autism link . . . okay, we might delay until 2, immunity wears down, yeah. . ." So he gave me a bunch of links to look at and I've been researching a little more because we have another appointment today.

From many sources, I read that these vaccine preventable diseases aren't as bad as many statistics write up, if you redo the math and take into consideration how many of the cases were otherwise healthy. Then I looked at a couple of websites my pedi gave me and they made me scared.

http://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/vac-gen/6mishome.htm
Risk from Disease vs. Risk from Vaccinations have really extreme statistics especially for DTaP. I don't get it. Where do all these different numbers come from and how do you get a "correct" statistic? Take the average from studies done by the vaccine companies and from anti-vaccine sources? Haha.

http://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/pubs/pro...oning-vacc.htm
Oh, the link to the page sounds so welcoming already.
"Excluding patients from your practice whose parents decline immunizations is not deemed the best public health strategy. Remember, unimmunized young children did not decide for themselves to forgo vaccination. If you don’t care for them, who will?"
Oh doctor, save my daughter from myself.

What should I do? I want to keep WBVs because I don't want it to look like I'm neglecting my child but I can't shop around for another doctor here. I was thinking of printing out the modified AAP refusal to vaccine form before he whipped out the unmodified version.

Gah, I should have just went, "I don't wish to discuss my religious beliefs with you," and nipped it in the bud! But then wonderful dh also said, "Is that the recommended vaccine schedule?" We have it at home, in at least 3 of our books! Way to make it look like we don't even know what vaccines are.
post #2 of 11
Cancel the appointment an take some time to discuss this on here. That's my suggestion.
post #3 of 11
Agree@Gitti. Also, if your child is healthy and happy, the only thing you can be accused of is not being paranoid. At first I was worried about WBVs, but as time has passed, I feel much better about it. Plus, after seeing how poorly the pediatrician handled my DD's rising bilirubin level and breastfeeding, I think I'd trust an ER doctor more in an actual emergency.
post #4 of 11
"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies and statistics." Mark Twain.

Good luck!
post #5 of 11
http://insidevaccines.com/wordpress/...ry-statistics/

insidevaccines is doing on series on disease statistics! Some of the articles are a bit challenging, but it does give a good picture of how the statistics are put together. Basically there are two approaches. One is to look at the actual cases pre-vaccine. The other is to make up numbers. Coincidentally, insidevaccines came across two studies being touted in some news stories, one of each flavor. You wouldn't have known it from the news stories, which make it sound as though the two studies AGREED WITH EACH OTHER.

Anyway, I hope this helps.
post #6 of 11
It's just like the HepB stats. CDC claims that there are 16,000 infections each year in children under 10.

During 80s-90s (before the vax) there was 1 case per 100,000 children age 0 - 9.(MMWR 2002). 36,000,000 kids 0-9 in US. Simple math and we have ~ 360 cases/yr. Where do they get 16,000? They probably don't know themselves.
post #7 of 11
Quote:
Originally Posted by michelleklu View Post

http://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/vac-gen/6mishome.htm
Risk from Disease vs. Risk from Vaccinations have really extreme statistics especially for DTaP. I don't get it. Where do all these different numbers come from and how do you get a "correct" statistic? Take the average from studies done by the vaccine companies and from anti-vaccine sources? Haha.

l
I'm not positive--(PLEASE someone who is more familiar with statistics correct me if I'm wrong), but to me it looks like this site above shows deaths attributed to those who actually GOT the disease, vs. damage associated with vaccination. It's comparing apples to oranges. You need to see what the chances of getting the disease are (total numbers in the population for a given year), then calculate the deaths based on that number, then compare that to deaths from vaccine to be fair.

For example, it appears that there have been ZERO "provisional reported cases" of diptheria from 2004 to the present:
http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwr...803md.htm#tab1
So if you caught the disease, the likelihood of death would be 1 in 20, but your chances of catching the disease since 2004 in the US appears to be ZERO. If you compare that to the listed reactions to vaccine, your chances of problem from vaccine are much higher than likelihood of being damaged by the disease. Apples to apples, or at least a more honest comparison. What I'm saying is they're banking on the fact that most people can't do statistics math.

Also the statistic that there are "Death: None proven" from DTaP is questionable, especially since a search of VAERS for {"DTaP, deaths, all cases", comes back with the results of "suppressed". In other words, they're not telling, so good luck with finding honest data on that.:

Can someone else who is better at math and familiar with reading this MMWR stuff confirm or enhance what I'm trying to say? Please...
post #8 of 11
thats how I see it graden mom. the chance of getting the disease needs to be factored in, but that wouldn't skew the numbers in their favor so they don't do it that way. It's not really a fair comparison otherwise. you are trying to figure out which way you are more likely to have adverse effects- from not getting vaccinated or from getting vaccinated. but if not getting vaccinated then you are only at risk if you catch the disease to have adverse effects to the disease. if you get the vaccine, you are automatically at risk to have adverse effects to the vaccine.
post #9 of 11
if you have two different sources giving you different statistics and you don't know who to believe, i suggest click on "contact us" and ask BOTH sources for references. it will only take you a minute to email them this question so why wouldn't you? if one side refuses to give you a reference then be distrustful. they should have some reference to back up anything they are writing on their websites. just last week i found a gleaming error on one anti-vax site, wrote the contact person and asked for a reference for the statement he had made, which of course he couldn't give me. i just want to make the point that people make mistakes and that's why you should make sure that people can provide references for what they are saying and that the references they provide are actually saying what the people say. sometimes it's an honest mistake. if you need help accessing full-text for the references you are given, let me know and i can probably help you.
post #10 of 11
I encourage you to read the CDC pink book and ask the CDC for references, please.

Someone really ought to call them on the crap they are putting out there.

post #11 of 11
Quote:
Originally Posted by Deborah View Post
http://insidevaccines.com/wordpress/...ry-statistics/

insidevaccines is doing on series on disease statistics! Some of the articles are a bit challenging, but it does give a good picture of how the statistics are put together. Basically there are two approaches. One is to look at the actual cases pre-vaccine. The other is to make up numbers. Coincidentally, insidevaccines came across two studies being touted in some news stories, one of each flavor. You wouldn't have known it from the news stories, which make it sound as though the two studies AGREED WITH EACH OTHER.

Anyway, I hope this helps.


This article was eye opening. The CDCs numbers are nothing close to objective considering their ties to vaccine manufacturers and border on outright lies in some cases. I know it is more difficult and hard to muddle through but I always look for the original research - that's what inside vaccines does and they uncover tons of flaws (and huge jumps) in logic.
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