Thinking through the numbers

[shanniesue2]

I'm thinking out loud... trying to wrap my brain around all of this....


According to this article

Pertussis affects an estimated 600,000 adults every year, aged 20 to 64 years, and can result in weeks of coughing, cracked ribs from severe coughing spells, pneumonia, and other complications.

And according to this article

In the United States during 1934--1943, an annual average of 200,752 pertussis cases and 4,034 pertussis-related deaths were reported

And

Since the 1980s, the number of reported pertussis cases has been steadily increasing, especially among adolescents and adults

So, in the 9 years before they really started pushing the DTP vax, there was an average off about 200,000 reported cases of pertussis every year. and 4034/200752=.02

So out of all the cases of reported pertussis every year, .02% of those ended in death, right?

Now, they are reporting that between 2000 and 2004, there were an average of 600,000 cases of pertussis reported in adults.

So basically, today there are 3 times the number of reported cases of pertussis than there were before they started pushing vax on everyone? And that 600,000 only accounts for one portion of the population? Does the 200,752 before vax account for the total population? Or only infants and children? If it accounts for only infants and children, then the numbers are like comparing apples to oranges. However, if that 200,752 includes the total population.... well, that really holds a lot of implications.

Am I interpreting this correctly?

[shanniesue2]

p.s. .02% is a pretty small number

[tanyalynn]

I think those numbers mostly mean that it's really, really hard to know exactly how many people are infected with pertussis each year. Are you just trying to see how many people pertussis really makes ill, or do you want to know how many are infected? How are you distinguishing between pertussis and coughing due to other illnesses or underlying conditions? Comparing between different studies at different times, with different methodologies and technologies and definitions of illness is enough to make a sane person nuts. Especially frustrating that this is one of the illnesses that we're most likely to deal with, and it's not fun and not short, and it'd be nice to have a more solid information about it.

[Claire and Boys]

I wonder as well if the figures are actually even higher now based on Drs not diagnosing pertussis in the vaccinated.

Doesn't really seem like the vax has done much to prevent people actually getting pertussis does it?

[shanniesue2]

Originally Posted by TanyaLopez

I think those numbers mostly mean that it's really, really hard to know exactly how many people are infected with pertussis each year. Are you just trying to see how many people pertussis really makes ill, or do you want to know how many are infected? How are you distinguishing between pertussis and coughing due to other illnesses or underlying conditions? Comparing between different studies at different times, with different methodologies and technologies and definitions of illness is enough to make a sane person nuts. Especially frustrating that this is one of the illnesses that we're most likely to deal with, and it's not fun and not short, and it'd be nice to have a more solid information about it.

The reason that I'm asking about these numbers is that DH and I are trying to decide about getting any future shots for DS. This morning the question that I told DH I was curious about was the risk of getting the disease vs the risk of having a reaction to the shot... and even further the risk of having a severe complication of the disease vs. a severe reaction to the shot.... It is the one question that I have brought up so far that has given him pause...but he won't accept obviously anti-vax sources of information (or information that I find here on MDC... he's not a fan). So I'm simply trying to sort through what I can find that I think he will accept as valid.

And these numbers made me ask some more questions.

[mamakah]

Thats how I interpreted it too. The 2nd article makes it sound as if there were 200,000(and some, I don't remember the exact numbers) total cases, not just in children and adolescents. Pretty interesting...

[peainthepod]

Many doctors won't even consider a pertussis diagnosis if the patient has been vaccinated. In their mind, if the child has had the DTaP, it can't be pertussis. :

For that reason alone I'm inclined to believe that it's grossly underdiagnosed, especially since a lot of children don't ever develop the signature "whoop" and just have a lingering cough.

[shanniesue2]

it makes me wonder about a nasty cough that I got after a cruise I went on 2/12 years ago.... the cough lasted for several months, during whic I saw the doctor twice. I would have coughing fits so bad that they made vomit and pee on myself. tmi...sorry

[Scattershoot]

In one respect this is similar to what happened with smallpox. They kept giving more and more boosters until some people were getting them monthly. If someone died from smallpox, and they had been vaccinated in the past, they'd just say they were unvaccinated because no matter what the time period of vaccination, it wasn't enough as evidenced by the death. Death = unvaccinated, even if the person had been vaccinated many times.

[shanniesue2]

Originally Posted by Scattershoot

In one respect this is similar to what happened with smallpox. They kept giving more and more boosters until some people were getting them monthly. If someone died from smallpox, and they had been vaccinated in the past, they'd just say they were unvaccinated because no matter what the time period of vaccination, it wasn't enough as evidenced by the death. Death = unvaccinated, even if the person had been vaccinated many times.

what's your source for that?

(not trying to be snotty... I just want to know)

[Juvysen]

I wonder how much the population of the US has changed in that time. considering the pop of the world went from, like, 1 billion to 6+ billion in that time... A tripling of the numbers could be related to population trippling, no? Or... well, what's the percentage of the population that's been diagnosed with pertussis, now?

Also, if there's so many adults getting it, why aren't they vaccinating adults for it or are they?

[shanniesue2]

Originally Posted by Juvysen

Also, if there's so many adults getting it, why aren't they vaccinating adults for it or are they?

Yes, they are starting to recommend vax for adults... they are recommending the new Tdap to replace the one that adults currently get when they need a tetanus boosted (the Dt... can't remember which initials are capitalized)

[Full Heart]

Originally Posted by Juvysen

I wonder how much the population of the US has changed in that time. considering the pop of the world went from, like, 1 billion to 6+ billion in that time... A tripling of the numbers could be related to population trippling, no? Or... well, what's the percentage of the population that's been diagnosed with pertussis, now?

Also, if there's so many adults getting it, why aren't they vaccinating adults for it or are they?

the 1940 census said there were 132,164,569 people in the US. In 2000 there were 281,421,906 so even with that much of an increase there are still more wc cases now. I also believe it to be grossly under and mis diagnosed than it would have been in th 30s and 40s when drs were used to seeing it. So many drs today have no clue what they are looking at. Since they have been told that its virtually non existent, told its a terrible, terrible disease when it does occur, they think mild coughs can't possibly be WC. Esp if the person is vaxed. Vaxes work, it can't be wc.

CDC says its because of better reporting that there is an increase (not really an increase, just looks that way). If that were the case then why would we believe vaxes worked. All along there have been this many cases, they just haven't reported them? But vaxes work despite the numbers? Gives me a headache their logic does.

[Scattershoot]

Originally Posted by shanniesue2

what's your source for that?

(not trying to be snotty... I just want to know)

I don't take that as snotty at all. It's a fair question. Back in my much younger days, I was very fascinated with Charles Darwin and carried around Origin of Species (not that I agree or disagree with Darwin's ideas). That research led me to Alfred Russel Wallace. He was extremely well-regarded in his day as a man of great intellect. Anyhow, to make a long story short, Wallace was one of the main people to really question the smallpox vaccine program. He got attacked by the medical community, which did not like his questions and research. A larger library, such as found at a university, would have many of his writings. You could probably find some info on the internet as well.

There was actually a very large anti-vaccination movement in the 19th century. People were much more adamant, even violent, in their opposition to the vaccinationists. Entire towns kicked health authorities out. You could look up the National Anti-Vaccination League.

[ASusan]

Originally Posted by Juvysen

I wonder how much the population of the US has changed in that time. considering the pop of the world went from, like, 1 billion to 6+ billion in that time... A tripling of the numbers could be related to population trippling, no? Or... well, what's the percentage of the population that's been diagnosed with pertussis, now?

Also, if there's so many adults getting it, why aren't they vaccinating adults for it or are they?

I believe the population in the US has (approximately) trippled in the past 100 years.

1900 = 1 million Americans
2000 = 3 million Americans

As a starting point.

[Mosaic]

If you click on the link in the bottom of the CDC page, it takes you to this page which states:

In the United States, 5000-7000 cases are reported each year. Incidence of pertussis has increased steadily since the 1980s. The incidence in 2002 was 3.01/100,000 when 8,296 cases of pertussis were reported.

That makes me think that the 600,000 number is likely worldwide, not just for the US, so that's still comparing apples to oranges. I think?

[Mosaic]

More info:

During the 6-year period from 1940 through 1945, more than 1 million cases of pertussis were reported, an average of 175,000 cases per year (incidence of approximately 150 cases per 100,000 population).

Following introduction of whole-cell pertussis vaccine in the 1940s, pertussis incidence gradually declined, reaching 15,000 reported cases in 1960 .... A total of 25,827 cases was reported in 2004, the largest number since 1959.

Those are the numbers, but I'll let you all figure out what they mean because I sure don't know!

ETA: there are more incidence rates at that link as well.

[Gitti]

I look at it this way:

If my child gets pertussis, I know how to deal with it and it may be a 3 months long illness at worst, but then it's done with.

If my child has a vaccine reaction, that may destroy the child's life totally and no one knows how to deal with it. No one is even going to acknowledge it.

So far out of 3 grandchildren and 3 kids, none have had wc.

[esmicosaquehago]

The other factor to consider with those numbers is the population of the U.S. I'd imagine there are a LOT more people now than in the earlier part of last century, which could account for part of the discrepancy. Just something to think about.

[shanniesue2]

argh! There's a reason I didn't major in statistics!

So, I talked to DH some more about it... and here's the basic question.... of the people who end up with pertussis, how many of them were vax'd?

And where can I find this info? Honestly, I think I could spend years searching through the CDC articles and still not understand the whole thing