What would happened if no one got vaccinated? - Page 3

[rhiandmoi]

Well lets say that no-one vaccinated for measles anymore. In the US we'd see between 600,000 and 1,000,000 cases and between 1800 and 3000 deaths.

In Africa, there would be be 3 times as many cases and 100 times as many deaths.

[runes]

Originally Posted by rhiandmoi

Well lets say that no-one vaccinated for measles anymore. In the US we'd see between 600,000 and 1,000,000 cases and between 1800 and 3000 deaths.

In Africa, there would be be 3 times as many cases and 100 times as many deaths.

Do you have any sources to back those numbers up? Thanks!

If these numbers are true, then the main point that I derive from them is that we need to help the people of Africa fight disease and stay healthier, with clean water, access to good food, better sanitation, and better access to health care.

[applejuice]

Originally Posted by kidspiration

Do you have any sources to back those numbers up? Thanks!

If these numbers are true, then the main point that I derive from them is that we need to help the people of Africa fight disease and stay healthier, with clean water, access to good food, better sanitation, and better access to health care.

Which is exactly what is done in Africa, followed by a mass vaccination program --- and the vaccines get the credit.

[schreiberwriter]

If no one was vaxed, wouldn't the same thing happen here that happens in other countries? Aren't preventable diseases more common?

[rhiandmoi]

Originally Posted by Murihiku

I wonder if that would have any effect on two-income families? Would one parent have to compromise his or her (probably her) career to stay home at regular intervals to look after sick children? Let's say a couple have two children who each catch the four diseases mentioned above and each need six school days off. Let's say the five days overlap so that a total of ten schooldays are missed. Ten schooldays x four diseases is 40 days of missed work for parent(s). Let's say the 40 days took place over two years--that's about three work-weeks per year.

(Figures aren't my strong point--feel free to correct me.)

This scenario presents some interesting changes to our current culture. While over-consumption might decrease and breastfeeding might increase if families reverted to single incomes, there might also be some negative results for some women.

In many ways routine childhood vaccinations have allowed women to fully participate in the workforce. Honestly, I think if vaccinating completely stopped very few women would be able to work when their children were small because employers don't want their employees taking 40 sick days for children in 2 years. And that's just for those 4 illnesses. Not even taking into account the other sniffs, sneezes, and stomach things that kids get.

In someways, it could sort of be "good" if the workforce decrease by 10-20% (WOHM of young kids). The people who were left to work would be in much higher demand and might even be paid more, and there might not be that big of an impact on personal wealth or GDP.

[runes]

Originally Posted by rhiandmoi

In many ways routine childhood vaccinations have allowed women to fully participate in the workforce. Honestly, I think if vaccinating completely stopped very few women would be able to work when their children were small because employers don't want their employees taking 40 sick days for children in 2 years. And that's just for those 4 illnesses. Not even taking into account the other sniffs, sneezes, and stomach things that kids get.

I completely disagree. The increase in women in the workforce has nothing to do with vaccinations. As is said quite often in regards to vaccinations...correlation doesn't equal causation. Has anyone ever met a woman who cited the availability of vaccinations as one of the deciding factors to work outside of the home? I sure haven't. I also have never heard of an employer asking an employee their children's vaccination status. If what you say is true, don't you think that this would be taken into account in hiring practices? But that's illegal, and it would be discrimination.

The MMR has been around for a while, but the chicken pox vaccine was introduced in 1995. Show me the surge of mothers that entered or returned to the workforce in the mid 90's because of that vaccine.

[rhiandmoi]

Originally Posted by kidspiration

Do you have any sources to back those numbers up? Thanks!

If these numbers are true, then the main point that I derive from them is that we need to help the people of Africa fight disease and stay healthier, with clean water, access to good food, better sanitation, and better access to health care.

Well, worldwide the incidence of measles is about 250/100,000, which is what it was in the US in the pre-vaccine era. With access to clean water and good nutrition there are about 1-3 deaths per 1000 cases. Measles causes diarrhea, which is how it kills in most of the world, in some areas as high as 1 in 4 die.

Like a PP said every action has a consequence. This is an issue that extends far beyond vaccinating. This is about family planning, world governments, local infrastructure building, wealth building, job creation, and the dispersal of technology. Everyone that doesn't die from a childhood disease has to have a way to feed and shelter themselves for the rest of their life. They will probably want to have some children of their own, who will need food and shelter and on and on. Is a life really saved if it is doomed to be spent in absolute poverty and near slavery conditions? Should countries with a rapidly declining childhood mortality rate be encouraged to have smaller families? With the US sending our health technology to places like India, do we have a moral imperative to also send jobs there to support all those people that aren't dying? Lots of tough questions, and I am glad I am not a global health policy maker.


Some links to numbers:
http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/00001237.htm
http://www.who.int/mediacentre/facts.../en/index.html
http://www.sanofipasteur.us/sanofi-p...odeRubrique=19
http://books.google.com/books?hl=en&...eoV90#PPA95,M1
http://books.google.com/books?id=L9p...cine#PPA511,M1
http://books.google.com/books?id=hst...re-vaccine&lr=

[rhiandmoi]

Originally Posted by kidspiration

I completely disagree. The increase in women in the workforce has nothing to do with vaccinations. As is said quite often in regards to vaccinations...correlation doesn't equal causation. ... [snipped]...
The MMR has been around for a while, but the chicken pox vaccine was introduced in 1995. Show me the surge of mothers that entered or returned to the workforce in the mid 90's because of that vaccine.

http://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/1999/12/art1full.pdf

You're right, correlation doesn't equal causation. A lot of things happened in the 60's to make it easier for women to participate in the labor force. But one of those things was a huge decrease in the number of days they would have to miss work to care for sick children. Whether or not anyone consciously thinks "Hey if I vaccinate my children I will be able to work!" I don't know, but on the flip side, who worries about missing work and maybe getting fired to take care of 2 kids who get measles back to back?

[ema-adama]

Facinating discussion.

One of the considerations I made when deciding to SAH, was that my children will be unvaxed and getting diseases that require me to be at home nursing them. I did not want to be dealing with a place of work that would not support my choice. This is only one of the factors in why I have made this choice, but it definitly was a factor. Just generally I did not want to be choosing between nursing my child and working out of the home, even for a cold. The culture around me is 'give the child antibiotics/steroids and send them to the kindy/school'. This does not appeal to me.

[runes]

Originally Posted by rhiandmoi

Well, worldwide the incidence of measles is about 250/100,000, which is what it was in the US in the pre-vaccine era. With access to clean water and good nutrition there are about 1-3 deaths per 1000 cases. Measles causes diarrhea, which is how it kills in most of the world, in some areas as high as 1 in 4 die.

Some links to numbers:
http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/00001237.htm
http://www.who.int/mediacentre/facts.../en/index.html
http://www.sanofipasteur.us/sanofi-p...odeRubrique=19
http://books.google.com/books?hl=en&...eoV90#PPA95,M1
http://books.google.com/books?id=L9p...cine#PPA511,M1
http://books.google.com/books?id=hst...re-vaccine&lr=

http://insidevaccines.com/wordpress/...-grim-reality/

[applejuice]

Gee, what did "Rosy the Riveter" do during WWII with the war effort? This was before mandatory vaccination laws had been in place and fewer vaccines were used. Sure the birth rate was lower during the war, but there still were young children around with working mommies.

Editted to add, women would not have to take off work to take their children to special education classes or physical therapy because of a vaccine damage.

Special education teachers and teacher assistants could work in the mainstream classes. Class size could increase. ADHD may decrease. VAERS would close down. Federal Vaccine Court would downsize and disappear.

My niece has juvenile arthritis because of a vaccine reaction. She has been going to physical therapy and has been hospitalized for it for years. My sister has been unable to hold a job because of her constant needs.

[jenneology]

Originally Posted by Dmitrizmom

Gotta agree with MamatoPeach...

I think we would see a relatively brief resurgence of some "VPD". Real immunity would be developed by the herd, cyclical re-exposure to the disease would increase the numbers with immunity and serve as boosters for those with wanning immunity - the way true herd immunity works. Moms would have immunity to pass to their babies via breastmilk, thus decreasing the likelihood of an infant contracting one of those diseases while most vulnerable. Children would get the diseases as children and have appropriate development of their immune systems. We would see a decrease in allergies, asthma, autism, and neurologically related behavioral disorders.

There will always be some portion of the population that has negative outcomes from exposure to the diseases. Given that our medical knowledge and sanitation have improved considerably from when vaccination began, I would expect to see far fewer problems in the long run. Initially, there will probably be a negative impact in the community of immunocompromised/suppressed individuals.

This is a great description of my opinion. I'd also add the sarcastic remark that we wouldn't be seeing vaccine related injuries and adverse effects. I do believe that we would see periodic outbreaks of diseases and it would be the immunologically weak groups where the most deaths would be seen. I think we would continue to see those dieoffs over time.

[Super Glue Mommy]

my kids arent vaccinated and I could totally work if I wanted to (I dont) and not take sick days.

[ema-adama]

Originally Posted by Super Glue Mommy

my kids arent vaccinated and I could totally work if I wanted to (I dont) and not take sick days.

I am not sure if what I quoted is in response to me choosing not to work out of the home in part because I will need to nurse my sick children, VPD or not.

My question is not to you specifically - but to all mums. What are your options for providing care for your DC when they are sick - whatever the illness? What is your support network for the times you are not available to nurse your child yourself (like if you work, have a newborn, are sick yourself etc)

[Super Glue Mommy]

i would probably have to stay home if I worked in that care, or hire a babysitter. I'd probably use in home daycare though, like I used to provide for a little girl and I watched her when she was sick too.

and you make a great point. my son who was vaccinated until age 2 gets sick way more then my children who were vaxxed less, and then not vaccinated at all.

ds1 - fully vaxxed to age 2 - neurological disorder, gets sick a lot.
dd - selectively vaxxed until 18 months - gets sick sometimes
ds2 - never vaccinated, rarely gets sick

[Murihiku]

Originally Posted by Super Glue Mommy

Natural Selection or Government Selection.

Thanks, I think I get it now. You would rather have natural "natural selection" at work than vaccination "natural selection" at work.

That makes sense.

[Murihiku]

Originally Posted by kidspiration

Has anyone ever met a woman who cited the availability of vaccinations as one of the deciding factors to work outside of the home?

I certainly would not have until I came to this forum. Before that, I took my children's health for granted. Then I came here and read the "I had chickenpox (mumps/measles) when I was a child and I got a fun week off school" posts and thought "Oh my--they must have had a Stay at Home Parent, or that would have been really stressful." Now I realize that some vaccinations result in me being able to work outside the home with less stress. I also read several times about the chickenpox vax being developed for the convenience of working parents, and had much the same epiphany.

ETA: I wouldn't argue that more vaccinations being available are a cause of women getting into the workforce, but rather that women being in the workforce may be a cause of more vaccinations being available. (Notice that I say "a" rather than "the": these matters are always complex.)

[Murihiku]

Originally Posted by applejuice

Gee, what did "Rosy the Riveter" do during WWII with the war effort? This was before mandatory vaccination laws had been in place and fewer vaccines were used. Sure the birth rate was lower during the war, but there still were young children around with working mommies.

Taking a wild guess here that more women lived in the same town as extended family in the '40s than do today, and thus had more childcare options.

I moved from NZ to North America for my career, and I'm not the only one to be part of a "brain drain." Hardly any of my good friends live in within driving distance of their parents or even their siblings.

[Murihiku]

Originally Posted by PaigeC

So maybe less vaccination would help pass family friendly laws?

That never occurred to me! I like the optimistism--and it's not completely impossible either.

[plunky]

Originally Posted by MamatoPeach

Natural Selection.

We would have less chronic disease.

Wow.

Originally Posted by applejuice

I do not think there is anything natural about vaccinating. I do not believe in the Darwinian concept of survival of the fittest or any kind of natural selection, but that is another thread altogether.

Do you also disagree that certain vaccinations are not helpful because they work on different strains of diseases? Those mutations are examples of natural selection at work.