Science-Fictionesque S/O to "What Would Happen if No one Got Vaccinated?"

[Murihiku]

You can travel through time. You can go to every moment in human history when someone thought up the idea of a vaccine and tried it out. According to Wikipedia () that includes India or China B.C.E. ("smallpox inoculation was started in China or India before 200 BC.") You can stop the experiment.

So let's say you do, and not one single vaccine is ever developed.

What would the world look like now?

(Remember that in time-travel stories you are always at risk of negating your own existence in the present.)

This is a very different question from what would happen if everyone stopped vaccinating starting in 2009.

[Super Glue Mommy]

I think, since we saw these diseases dying off at a steady rate, and not a dramatic change since introducing many of these vaccines that:

natural immunity would be developed in society. we would have something much closer to herd immunity. We would have less cancer, autoimmune disorders, neurological disorders, and "unknown diseases"

(by less I don't mean vaccines are the sole cause for these things or that they wouldn't exist - im only talking about if we removed vaccines, and therefor their risks)

this is of course, assuming that other things still advanced - such as health care and learning about proper diet and nutrition.

I think the diseases would still come in waves, effecting mostly children since the adults most likely would have already acheived life long immunity. I think some would be born naturally immune from their mothers. I think there would still be deaths from diseases (but less then there are currently from vaccines). I think more mothers would breastfeed as that is a natural immune booster.

thats some of my theory

[plunky]

It's an interesting question. An expert in medical history would be nice to have here. You'd have to write off all advances in medicine that were byproducts of vaccine research as well.

Looking at current portions of the world that don't have vaccines would be somewhat useful also, although not really a direct glimpse at the past.

Smallpox would have to have been eradicated in a separate way.

[anewmama]

This reminds me of the pea under the shell game. No one knows....

Even claims about "less cancer, autoimmune disorders, etc" are just PURE speculation. It really is all speculation. Too many factors are in play. Diseases going down for some reasons (advances in health care, sanitation, etc). But autoimmune diseases increasing DUE to increases in sanitation/bleach, etc. We live longer due to better nutrition and decent water quality... and that helps . Despite the bad rap in antibiotics, they allow thousands of people daily to undergo operations and procedures which would without the antibiotics, likely carry a high risk of infection and death. And without the operations, people would die. VPD's that cause dehydration are not as fatal due to IV and other modern hydration methods where everything else has failed. I personally would NOT want to rely on an acupuncturist, chiropractor, homeopathic doctor ONLY for my healthcare. I welcome the blend of eastern/alternative and western medicine. I hope it continues to blend so we can all reap the benefits of all systems.

You can't just look at the puzzle and make conclusions by looking at one piece only.

[ema-adama]

Originally Posted by plunky

Smallpox would have to have been eradicated in a separate way.

I have heard and read that this could have been possible with isolation as smallpox is only contagious when you already have the pox.

[ema-adama]

Originally Posted by anewmama

You can't just look at the puzzle and make conclusions by looking at one piece only.

Agreed. There is much more wrong with our health today that just vaccination. I do not see vaccination alone as being responsible for all the ills in the modern world. It's not helping, but neither is pollution, stress, mineral deficient diets, babies fed formula, mass use of antibiotics and steroids as a first choice rather than a last resort....... there are *way* too many other factors. Not a reason to rush out and get vaccinated. But just by not being vaccinated doesn't give you a ticket to perfect health either.

[Super Glue Mommy]

the whole point of this post was speculation

[anewmama]

Well, in some ways, I think a whole lot of discussions and opinions on this forum related to vaccines is just speculation. Some stuff is grounded in fact (both for and against vaccines), but some stuff is just personal bias and speculation. Not sure how this thread is any different.

[Super Glue Mommy]

because we get to do it on the grounds of speculating... i took it as kind of a way to voice what we *think* without having to try to prove ourselves or it be a debate. maybe i misunderstood the intent though.

[ema-adama]

oooops.

[Murihiku]

Originally Posted by Super Glue Mommy

because we get to do it on the grounds of speculating... i took it as kind of a way to voice what we *think* without having to try to prove ourselves or it be a debate. maybe i misunderstood the intent though.

It doesn't matter what the intent was--you can do what you like with it!

I proposed it because the other thread it spun off of had a few posts pointing out that although vaccinations may be a bad thing, stopping them at this point might be a worse thing. So I wondered what it would be like if they had never existed. I thought maybe some people might argue "There would be only five billion people on the planet and lots of people would have smallpox scarring on their faces" while others might say "There would be only one tenth of the allergies we have now, and smallpox would still have been eradicated."

It is indeed pure speculation.

[amnesiac]

Please keep in mind that we will not permit posts which criticize other discussions on the board.

[rhiandmoi]

Quarantines would be an ongoing political discussion and there would be accusations of quarantine hospitals being run like goulags and there would be celebrity gossip about pop tarts sneaking out of quarantine to go party. MDC forums would be dedicated to which diseases if any should be quarantined.

I think we would be able to repair nerve damage, because all the billions of dollars spent on vaccine research would have been spent on reversing the effects of polio, and that would trickle into other nerve damage issues.

[PaigeC]

Great thread! I think this is less speculative than we might imagine. Vaccination (mass at least, I don't know about China BCE) is a very modern experiment. For thousands of years humans lived in balance with viral and bacterial entities on our planet. There were epidemics, sometimes lots of people died. There were advances that helped humans in the balance - like sanitation. There were mutations that helped pathogens in the balance (i.e. species jumping, new strains, etc.). Over many years it is balanced.

This experiment in tipping the scales in humans' favor and "beating" the pathogens is the huge speculation! I don't think we will see the full effects of this imbalance for some time.

[Super Glue Mommy]

:bravo:

your insight is excellent paige. that really puts perspective on thing