When is the stock market going to stop going down?

[HipGal]

Seriously.

[Sonnenwende]

When it bottoms out. Some estimates have around 6500 or so. Some lower.

[freespirited]

I think there will be a rebound up to 10,000-ish and then it's going back down. My parents are planning on riding up the rebound and then gettng out for good before summer. Glad I don't have a 401k. This must be painful for those who do.

[Sonnenwende]

On what are they basing such an incredible rally?

[Denvergirlie]

It will only stop going down when investors have confidence again.
I don't see that happening in the near future.

I have a 401K, it's small, but it's in place. I seriously do not expect anything from it, I am prepared to lose ever single dollar in it. Investing is and always has been a risk.

Why do I keep putting money in it? Because I can also hope that it might rebound, and thus am preparing for both scenerios, a total collaspe and a rebound in the future.

Try not to watch the news, you might feel better in the long run.

[Juvysen]

I think we still have a ways to go. Take a look at the dow chart from, say 1940 on. HUGE bubble, HUGE.

[freespirited]

Originally Posted by Sonnenwende

On what are they basing such an incredible rally?

Possibly the stimulus passing and being signed today could start the trend, believe it or not. Signs that it's working would be very encouraging to the markets however I fear they might be false and it's probably just going to be a dead cat bounce leading into a difficult summer. This summer could mark the beginning of skyrocketing food prices.

That said, no one really knows what will happen, but it looks like a huge amount of money is going to be injected into the banks and they will be forced to start lending and that could kickstart a rally, and it looks like they are going to move very quickly with that. Of course, DDYD!

[dogmom327]

If I knew...I'd be rich

Seriously though, I think we're still a ways from the bottom but I am really glad I'm only 30 and my 401k has plenty of time to rebound.

[newbymom05]

Getting out my crystal ball! Not to be a bummer. but IMHO no way is there going to be a rally anywhere near 10K. I agree w/ the pp--6000-6500 is my guess. Once the 7500 floor breaks I think it'll go down pretty quickly into that range and stay there for a decade or more. But I also wouldn't be surprised if it were under 5000 based on current PEs.

The only thing keeping it up is 401 contributions. If those ended, pfffft.

The whole thing about "confidence" is such a crock of junk IMO. What the heck does that mean? People don't spend "confidence", they spend money. Wages need to go up. Confidence in the market? Who's got any money? The media markets that line of bull to people like the ones here on the board, but people like us are investing in 401s automatically; confidence doesn't enter into it. The big money is plowing it all into gold/foreign currency.

[p1gg1e]

Originally Posted by Juvysen

I think we still have a ways to go. Take a look at the dow chart from, say 1940 on. HUGE bubble, HUGE.

Yep esp when they opened up the credit market more in the late 80's trough today...it was so inflated how it got this high is amazing!

[annethcz]

Originally Posted by newbymom05

The only thing keeping it up is 401 contributions. If those ended, pfffft.

I agree that 401K contributions are one reasons that market prices are as high as they are. Gives you something to think about, when you consider the number of baby boomers who will be retiring soon and will want to take out their money to put them in more stable investment vehicles. What will prices do then? You will have millions of baby boomers who want to sell stocks, and not enough Gen Xers and Yers to BUY the stocks. Supply and demand says that stock prices will decrease further when Boomers want to sell and not enough X and Yers want to buy.

The whole thing about "confidence" is such a crock of junk IMO. What the heck does that mean? People don't spend "confidence", they spend money. Wages need to go up. Confidence in the market? Who's got any money? The media markets that line of bull to people like the ones here on the board, but people like us are investing in 401s automatically.

While many people do make automatic contributions into 401Ks, I know of a lot of people (myself included) who have decreased 401K contributions in the last year. We DO have the money to invest in 401ks, our wages are more than adequate to support our family, but we're choosing to allocate that money differently this year, based on our personal circumstances and what we see happening in the overall economy.

[Sonnenwende]

Originally Posted by freespirited

Possibly the stimulus passing and being signed today could start the trend, believe it or not. Signs that it's working would be very encouraging to the markets however I fear they might be false and it's probably just going to be a dead cat bounce leading into a difficult summer. This summer could mark the beginning of skyrocketing food prices.

That said, no one really knows what will happen, but it looks like a huge amount of money is going to be injected into the banks and they will be forced to start lending and that could kickstart a rally, and it looks like they are going to move very quickly with that. Of course, DDYD!

I dunno. Today's market drop was on the fact that investors don't trust the stimulus to do anything ultimately. I think it will take at least until next year to see any real results and probably 2-5 years to know if it really worked or not. Right now, I am still not seeing a bottom. People are still getting laid off left and right. Real estate is still looking for bottom in bubble cities. People and businesses aren't buying anything they don't have to. Other countries are doing just as poorly or will soon be joining us, so no hope there either for the short-term.

It is correction. We made more and bought more than we ever possibly could need. Reality sucks.

[Violet2]

There have been threads on this before. Basically, I don't believe the stock market will ever come back like it was.

It was a house of cards based on lies. If it ever rebounds we should be deeply suspicious.

V

[freespirited]

But you all are talking like the stock market is rational, and it isn't, that's why I predict a rally. I also think that certain conservative radio talkshow hosts like to say that the DOW is sinking because of the stimulus but in fact, it sunk before the first TARP was passed and then rallied after it was passed. And I wouldn't be surprised at all to see that happen again. Also there is the issue of bank nationalization. What will the effect of this happening be? I just don't think it's toast just yet. There will always be good stocks to invest in to, and people will do it because it won't be good to hold cash once the dollar gets devalued, but debt-free companies with cash will look very attractive.

Nothing makes sense right now, but I don't see going down to 6k anytime soon. I'm still thinking that will come later. I also don't think 401 contributions are moving the market very much. The bigger players are. Gold is risky, it will deflate a little bit next month, imho but overall looks very strong, but I just don't see a total shifting into gold for safety. For one thing, it's way too expensive for the average person. Banks might be buying it but banks are in trouble too. Who knows. Everything is awful but I still think there will be a rally soon enough, just when it makes the least sense for it to happen.

[Denvergirlie]

Originally Posted by Violet2

It was a house of cards based on lies. If it ever rebounds we should be deeply suspicious.

V

Not just the stock market, but the entire financial system of the US is a house of cards.

Look back to Sept 15th with the massive pull of money from the money markets, had the gov't not gaurenteed $250K in individual accounts, our entire system was hours away of complete collaspe.

No more dollar.
Default on all gov't debt - which is now more than the world's yearly GDP

Total collaspe of all fiat based money worldwide.
There is a lot more at stake than just the stock market.

I try not to be all doom and gloom and put my tinfoil hat away, but every day the facts are becoming more and more scary.


newbymom05 - You mentioned confidence.
We have little to none at this time, but we do have money we could invest if we in our house did feel this confidence. So yes, confidence is needed. If we had it, we could invest a very good portion of our take home pay, but for now, it's just funneled into an ING account were I know I will at least earn 2% interest on it.
Yes, some people are hurting in this economy, but there are also many people that have lost confidence in the stock markets that have changed from investing to saving.

[newbymom05]

Originally Posted by Denvergirlie

Not just the stock market, but the entire financial system of the US is a house of cards.

Look back to Sept 15th with the massive pull of money from the money markets, had the gov't not gaurenteed $250K in individual accounts, our entire system was hours away of complete collaspe.

No more dollar.
Default on all gov't debt - which is now more than the world's yearly GDP

Total collaspe of all fiat based money worldwide.
There is a lot more at stake than just the stock market.

I try not to be all doom and gloom and put my tinfoil hat away, but every day the facts are becoming more and more scary.


newbymom05 - You mentioned confidence.
We have little to none at this time, but we do have money we could invest if we in our house did feel this confidence. So yes, confidence is needed. If we had it, we could invest a very good portion of our take home pay, but for now, it's just funneled into an ING account were I know I will at least earn 2% interest on it.
Yes, some people are hurting in this economy, but there are also many people that have lost confidence in the stock markets that have changed from investing to saving.

Ha ha, to my mind you're confusing "confidence" w/ "common sense." How can anyone be confident that we don't have further to fall? Now it's mortgages, but there's a lot in the pipeline--CDOs and swaps, then credit card, personal and student loan defaults... Jobs and wages, that's the problem that needs to be fixed to restore confidence.

I'm with you on the tinfoil hat. I think the plan is to make us all wage slaves, enslaved to debt.

[Jenn_M]

Originally Posted by Juvysen

I think we still have a ways to go.

Yep, me too.

My sister and I were just talking about it tonight. She's much more optimistic than I am.

[Jenn_M]

Originally Posted by Denvergirlie

I try not to be all doom and gloom and put my tinfoil hat away, but every day the facts are becoming more and more scary.

Oops, meant to include this too.

I get this icky feeling in my stomach when I think about it too long.

[Sonnenwende]

Originally Posted by freespirited

But you all are talking like the stock market is rational, and it isn't, that's why I predict a rally. I also think that certain conservative radio talkshow hosts like to say that the DOW is sinking because of the stimulus but in fact, it sunk before the first TARP was passed and then rallied after it was passed. And I wouldn't be surprised at all to see that happen again. Also there is the issue of bank nationalization. What will the effect of this happening be? I just don't think it's toast just yet. There will always be good stocks to invest in to, and people will do it because it won't be good to hold cash once the dollar gets devalued, but debt-free companies with cash will look very attractive.

Nothing makes sense right now, but I don't see going down to 6k anytime soon. I'm still thinking that will come later. I also don't think 401 contributions are moving the market very much. The bigger players are. Gold is risky, it will deflate a little bit next month, imho but overall looks very strong, but I just don't see a total shifting into gold for safety. For one thing, it's way too expensive for the average person. Banks might be buying it but banks are in trouble too. Who knows. Everything is awful but I still think there will be a rally soon enough, just when it makes the least sense for it to happen.

You can't time markets, true, but I see no basis for a rally back anywhere near 10k. The fundementals are just too horrifying. Even the biggest fool can't ignore that. Odd sparks here and there, but nothing to base making a killing as your common, modern day peasant.

[freespirited]

Well today may just be the beginning of my predicted rally. I don't know, 10k in the next few months is possible imo, but it will be just another illusion because I don't think this house of cards can hold up too much longer. It will be a great opportunity for wise people to get out without losing too much. I don't know exactly when the real crash is going to happen but I am expecting sometime this year.

I have no doubt the playing-field is leveling across the globe. Globalization was the worst thing to happen for Americans, say good-bye to the standards of living you once believed were your birthright, or even the end result of a lot of studying and hardwork. There are people who study and work harder and accept 1/10th of our wages with much gratitude. Unfortunately, everyone wants to live like us and that is a physical impossibility due to lack of resources. With a population of over 6 billion and growing exponentially, we may all be living much simpler lives in the future. How much wood, metals, oil, clean water and food do we really have left on earth? Certainly NOT enough for everyone to have appliances and running water and ample food and cheap fuel. I worry for my children's future, and I have been saying this for years and been called a doomer and gloomer but now, only now are those same naysayers starting to listen to me.

P.S. If the rally doesn't start soon, I still don't think we will touch the 6000s, maybe low 7000s. JMHO. Try not to panic if it does go lower, I really see it stopping before the 6k's.