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WTSHTF... is it coming?

post #1 of 107
Thread Starter 
Alright, most longtime posters here on F&F know I'm not a big food hoarder. now though, I don't know. What has been happening over the past 2 y is very worrying. Then I was sent some article on Gerald Celente, which I haven't yet found a link, and I'm not sure if I can copy and past. But the jist can be also seen here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9nJ7LM3iyNg
http://www.truthnews.us/?p=964
http://video.google.com/videoplay?do...54511319341405
thoughts? I'm thinking of Violet2's reference to sustainable economy.
post #2 of 107
Yeah its not looking good. Celente does tend to be a doom and gloomer though on Coast to coast.

DH is an accountant and is switching over to the "International accounting standard" by 2016 ( though I think DH said 2012.

http://www.economist.com/finance/dis...ry_id=12010009
post #3 of 107
I dunno, what makes you think it hasn't already hit? I mean, the GD wasn't like some horrible 9/11 event that everyone slowly recovered from, it was a long slow boil, y/k? In fact, I read on Market Watch that you could compare the recent bull rally to the last bull rally in 1933. And there were 7 more years of recovery after that.

I think we're already in the GD2. The employment numbers, for instance--total bs IMHO. It's way higher than 8%, since it's a national avg, and it only counts people who are actively collecting unemployment. If you've run out, or are working a part time job, or have taken a hiatus or early retirement, etc etc you don't show up. I read somewhere that the rate was more like 14%.

Anyway, I am not more worried than usual, b/c I've been worried since 2007! If you can keep your job, the deflation can work to your advantage. Unless you want to cash out something, of course.

I didn't read Violet2's post so I'm not sure what you mean about a sustainable economy. One would hope that's what would happen, but I don't think the oligarchs are going to let it. We shouldn't be afraid IMO but angry--why have we let 1% consolidate the wealth in this country? Why on earth would they voluntarily give it up? In France they're holding managers hostage b/c of layoffs--and that's in a country w/ excellent infrastructure, worker protections, a living wage, a good education system, health care and safety nets. And wth do we have??? Yet I read letters to the editor that we can't tax the wealthy (1%!!!) b/c they "give" us jobs.

You and I shouldn't be afraid, the 1% should. They should be afraid that we wake up and demand responsible use of our tax dollars and a more progressive tax system.

OK, my rant got sidetracked, sorry. I think if you have a frugal mindset, no debt and can keep your job(s), you will be fine.
post #4 of 107
Quote:
Originally Posted by newbymom05 View Post
I dunno, what makes you think it hasn't already hit? I mean, the GD wasn't like some horrible 9/11 event that everyone slowly recovered from, it was a long slow boil, y/k? In fact, I read on Market Watch that you could compare the recent bull rally to the last bull rally in 1933. And there were 7 more years of recovery after that.

I think we're already in the GD2. The employment numbers, for instance--total bs IMHO. It's way higher than 8%, since it's a national avg, and it only counts people who are actively collecting unemployment. If you've run out, or are working a part time job, or have taken a hiatus or early retirement, etc etc you don't show up. I read somewhere that the rate was more like 14%.

Anyway, I am not more worried than usual, b/c I've been worried since 2007! If you can keep your job, the deflation can work to your advantage. Unless you want to cash out something, of course.

I didn't read Violet2's post so I'm not sure what you mean about a sustainable economy. One would hope that's what would happen, but I don't think the oligarchs are going to let it. We shouldn't be afraid IMO but angry--why have we let 1% consolidate the wealth in this country? Why on earth would they voluntarily give it up? In France they're holding managers hostage b/c of layoffs--and that's in a country w/ excellent infrastructure, worker protections, a living wage, a good education system, health care and safety nets. And wth do we have??? Yet I read letters to the editor that we can't tax the wealthy (1%!!!) b/c they "give" us jobs.

You and I shouldn't be afraid, the 1% should. They should be afraid that we wake up and demand responsible use of our tax dollars and a more progressive tax system.

OK, my rant got sidetracked, sorry. I think if you have a frugal mindset, no debt and can keep your job(s), you will be fine.
I agree with you!

As for the OP, no I don't think it's over. Nowhere near over. It is just starting. The only question I have is, are we going to have a stabilization of the status quo for the short term and how long will that be? Probably not long b/c the commercial real estate collapse is supposedly in the works. And Russia along with China are openly calling for a new world reserve currency (which would be bad for the US) AND they are starting to mention that inflation is coming on the nightly news (PBS at least).

In the mean time, I am going to be learning how to grow food, as much as I can fit on my suburban plot.

The storm is building, this is the lull.

HOWEVER, be careful to always operate with facts and try to fact check particularly salient or alarming tidbits before basing any decisions on them.

V
post #5 of 107
My brain is on vacation today so I'll just ask. What does wtshtf mean...I know the shtf part but I can't figure out the wt part of it.
post #6 of 107
Quote:
Originally Posted by wednesday2004 View Post
My brain is on vacation today so I'll just ask. What does wtshtf mean...I know the shtf part but I can't figure out the wt part of it.
when the...
post #7 of 107
eek and here DH and I are trying to buy a house....maybe we should just keep renting.
post #8 of 107
I definetly don't think this is "over" by any stretch of the imagination. IMO what needs to happen first of all is we *NEED* to nationalize the banks and split them up into a hundred little banks again - any bank (or company) thats "too big to fail" is, IMO, just flat out *TOO BIG*!!! If we, the taxpayers have to bail them out, then obviously we've let them get too frigging huge and if we *must* bail them out we should split them up while we're at it. But of course, we can't/won't do that, cause' that would hurt that top 1% you were talking about - they might loose some of their money! And wouldn't we all just feel *SO* bad for them!?!
post #9 of 107
Thread Starter 
lol, when the...
my apologies, i couldn't remember the extent of the abbreviation.

here's a link to the meltdown in Iceland: wonder if the US would handle such an event so *calmly.*
http://www.vanityfair.com/politics/f...urrentPage=all

and is the US headed in that direction?
http://blogs.ft.com/maverecon/2009/0...e-uk/#more-428
post #10 of 107
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by claddaghmom View Post
eek and here DH and I are trying to buy a house....maybe we should just keep renting.
yk, we are going through the same debate.
we are moving to the D.C. area, to an area of the area (lol), that we love. Really hard to decide what to do. Vacillating back and forth. Started looking 3 mo ago in earnest, initially only for sale properties. Even put a bid on a home, the first weekend it came on the market. Beautiful home from the '30's, beautiful stonework, gorgeous lot abutting non-developable woods. Since it was the first weekend, the sellers didn't want to budge much, and eventually we just decided to let it go.
Funny thing now, 2 mo later, I'm sure they would have take the original offer considering how much they have dropped. Scarey thought if they would have accepted, huh? We are now decidedly looking to rent.
Rents across the US are dropping. Google dropping rents and you'll get a ton of articles in all different metro areas, even SF and NYC.

Every day I get OL, and the drops in rent/ asking price is palpable. Literally from Sunday to Sunday. Watching the market (greater economy) and the RE market (which is supposedly always local), I feel like we (as a nation) are on the very precipice..... and over the edge is a steep long fall.
post #11 of 107
I don't think anyone here is a food HOARDER. Hoarding is irrationally buying and keeping things you'll never use and will not give it up for any reason. Hoarding is buying things in bulk during a shortage just to own it. Hoarding is negative.

Stocking up is prudent no matter WHAT happens. Stocking up is positive.

I think that there are about 9 million people for whom the S has already HTF in the past 2 years and an additional 6 million who must be feeling a bit of despair as well (the UNDERemployed). I think that what we are seeing is a minor depression that will probably last at least 5-10 years. I don't think that the economy will completely disintegrate, even if the big automakers go belly up. I think we will see some variation of the 1930's. What worries me the most is the respected economists are worried. And I do NOT think that the citizens of the US will deal very well with the economic situation. The sense of entitlement is quite astounding in the US. A huge portion of the world's population is grateful for just clean water. The excesses of this country are staggering and TBH, I DO hope this economy will at least reset some of our values.

I think some people are really getting a wake up call and some people are still completely CLUELESS. Those that wake up and take proactive steps toward insulating themselves against the new hard times we're just starting to see will be much better off that those for whom it takes unawares. Those people who are prepared already have a sense of "Back to Basics" most likely because somewhere along the line they've learned (from friends, family, books, etc.) the art of what, in MHM, we call "Traditional" living skills.

You can only prepare for the worst and hope for the best. When is it coming? Who knows? Nobody, of course. But everyone better prepare for their own version of SHTF because it may be coming your way whether or not it is systemic, national, or global.
post #12 of 107
I dunno if anyone's heard the survival podcast, but he refers to his planning as "how to live well if things get bad and even if they don't." I have to agree. I want to know how to handle things if things DO get bad. I don't want to get caught with my pants down, so to speak, but I actually think it adds to my life even if things don't get bad ever. It's NICE to have enough of a stockpile of food that if you use a can or two of tomatoes you don't need to run out and buy more, you HAVE some in your cupboard, you know? You don't get caught without something you wanted to use in your recipe, or whatever.

Anyway, this worries me. Printing money because there's not enough money in the world to pay for our debts = higher costs of living for us (inflation). I just hope it doesn't get too out of hand, but it still is not an encouraging picture, to me.
post #13 of 107
I'm waiting for commercial real estate and the derivatives markets to collapse. That's when I think things will get much worse. The derivatives market alone is going to dwarf what's happened so far.

I do read Celente from time to time, and from what I've seen he's been pretty accurate so far. Honestly put, I just don't know any non-governmental long term forecaster who has a good track record that isn't glooming and dooming right now. That alone should be cause for people to pay closer attention.
post #14 of 107
Quote:
Originally Posted by krankedyann View Post
I'm waiting for commercial real estate and the derivatives markets to collapse. That's when I think things will get much worse. The derivatives market alone is going to dwarf what's happened so far.

I do read Celente from time to time, and from what I've seen he's been pretty accurate so far. Honestly put, I just don't know any non-governmental long term forecaster who has a good track record that isn't glooming and dooming right now. That alone should be cause for people to pay closer attention.


what's a derivative?


I'm quietly lurking and learning because I'm worried, being a person living on the edge right now.
post #15 of 107
Quote:
Originally Posted by krankedyann View Post
I'm waiting for commercial real estate and the derivatives markets to collapse.
The derivatives markets are collapsing already. That's what started this.
post #16 of 107
post #17 of 107
Quote:
Originally Posted by velochic View Post
The derivatives markets are collapsing already. That's what started this.
There's collapse, then there's 'collapse.' They've really only dropped so far, not really collapsed yet, though I do see what you're saying. I'm waiting for a much bigger drop than what has already occurred.
post #18 of 107
Quote:
Originally Posted by Juvysen View Post
I dunno if anyone's heard the survival podcast, but he refers to his planning as "how to live well if things get bad and even if they don't." I have to agree. I want to know how to handle things if things DO get bad. I don't want to get caught with my pants down, so to speak, but I actually think it adds to my life even if things don't get bad ever. It's NICE to have enough of a stockpile of food that if you use a can or two of tomatoes you don't need to run out and buy more, you HAVE some in your cupboard, you know? You don't get caught without something you wanted to use in your recipe, or whatever.

Anyway, this worries me. Printing money because there's not enough money in the world to pay for our debts = higher costs of living for us (inflation). I just hope it doesn't get too out of hand, but it still is not an encouraging picture, to me.
IMO the inflation of printing money will be nothing compared to the inflation in price due to resource constraints and competition. Wait until heating our homes triples and quadruples along with the price of car gas and water. That is what worries me the most and it is coming/already happening.

An economic crisis along without any other factors is survivable and doesn't worry me, with time it will work itself out. BUT an economic crisis with declining oil production, increased demand, and a dash of climate change in the form of drought in the world's breadbaskets is really disturbing.

Personally, I sift all news through the economic, resource limits, and climate change filters to shake out the true impact of factoids/data. A lot of articles only talk about one angle and don't look at any of others, imo you need to take all three together to get a good picture of what might happen.

V
post #19 of 107
Quote:
Originally Posted by Violet2 View Post
IMO the inflation of printing money will be nothing compared to the inflation in price due to resource constraints and competition. Wait until heating our homes triples and quadruples along with the price of car gas and water. That is what worries me the most and it is coming/already happening.

An economic crisis along without any other factors is survivable and doesn't worry me, with time it will work itself out. BUT an economic crisis with declining oil production, increased demand, and a dash of climate change in the form of drought in the world's breadbaskets is really disturbing.

Personally, I sift all news through the economic, resource limits, and climate change filters to shake out the true impact of factoids/data. A lot of articles only talk about one angle and don't look at any of others, imo you need to take all three together to get a good picture of what might happen.

V
You're totally right. And honestly the money printing is only the most recent thing that worries me. But the declining oil production is definitely scary, too. That and the food production issues... like the one you said, or the possibilities of farmers not being able to get the credit they need so they can plant this year... :

I'm planning to try my hand at growing as much food as I can this year... Maybe it's silly, maybe it'll be useful, but definitely it'll be a learning experience and hopefully delicious
post #20 of 107
Quote:
Originally Posted by Violet2 View Post
IMO the inflation of printing money will be nothing compared to the inflation in price due to resource constraints and competition.
...

Personally, I sift all news through the economic, resource limits, and climate change filters to shake out the true impact of factoids/data. A lot of articles only talk about one angle and don't look at any of others, imo you need to take all three together to get a good picture of what might happen.

V
*bold mine* : ITA. I don't presume I can predict what will happen. Rather, DH and I have started to eliminate things that are no longer likely to happen. It is no longer reasonable to assume the current US standard of living is sustainable.
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