or Connect
Mothering › Mothering Forums › Natural Living › The Mindful Home › Frugality & Finances › WTSHTF... is it coming?
New Posts  All Forums:Forum Nav:

WTSHTF... is it coming? - Page 2

post #21 of 107
Here is one opinion on what the collapse timeline will be: http://postcarbon.org/museletter_204

This guy is a peak oil, resource limit writer and has several books out.

BTW it's not just oil depletion we need to worry about, it's water too. Wait until we don't have enough water.

I'm currently reading 6 Degrees which talks about climate change. At 4 degrees we lose quite a bit of the water that feeds many of the world's river and many scientists think we are now locked into a 4 degree minimum increase.

V
post #22 of 107
subbing
post #23 of 107
I'm not a peak oil maven, so I can't comment on that.

But my gut feeling is that the administration KNOWS that we're going to have inflation like craziness within the next 12-18 months, and are going to go their damnedest to try to have wage inflation that at least tracks with the price and money supply inflation. I don't know if they're going to be successful in that, but I do think they're considering inflation inevitable at this point.

That's what we're trying to price in to our family financial plan -- and honestly, we're far better set for an atmosphere of high inflation than we are of deflation. We're still keeping up with buying in bulk and storing food, growing and providing for ourselves as much as we can. But we're also not stressing saving as much as we would be if we thought deflation would be constant (inflation decreases the value of savings) and are chosing to take on some debt (mortgage, school for DH) that we probably wouldn't if we thought that we weren't in for major inflation.

I very seldom agree with Sharon Astyk -- I used to fangirl her intensely, but have fallen out of love -- but I do agree with what she says about the "collapse" or serious change in our society: that it's not going to be a crash, it's going to be a long spiral. I think we're currently in a relatively 'flat' period on that spiral, but that things will head downward again in the fall and winter.
post #24 of 107
I don't know. I think things could get pretty bad pretty quick. Did anyone watch 60 minutes tonight, the segment on the clinic in NV that shut down chemo b/c they couldn't afford it and essentially denied life saving humane care to the down-on-their-luck-out-of-work middle class?

There but for the grace of God go I.

Warning: It is disturbing. I cried. We bail out the banks so that people can die.

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2009/...n4917055.shtml
post #25 of 107
Thread Starter 
re: the "flat" period of the spiral of change... the calm before the storm? a bear market rally?

I'm also thinking that we are going to see a seismic cultural/ economic shift, in the event the the US adopts an approach along the lines of Denmark, in dealing with our current economic crises. I think though, that if this administration and Congress, continue to pass stimulus pkg after bailout after more corporate handout, that we may enter a Japan-esque like situation. Propping up a unsastainable financial infrastructure and experiencing our own *lost decade.*

http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/200905/imf-advice
I think this guy was also interviewed by Terri Gross on Fresh Air.

Re: hoarding, vs. stockpiling, this is exactly what I am thinking. Here is an article hinting at more violent times: http://www.economist.com/opinion/dis...ry_id=13405314
And I consider the economist minimally tin-foil.
Stockpiling is for reasonable times, frugal practice during rational times.
Will we soon be facing chaos? Like not in 10 or more years, when peak water hits? Or later, when peak oil hits?
But in the next 1-2 y?
post #26 of 107
Quote:
Originally Posted by p.s View Post
re: the "flat" period of the spiral of change... the calm before the storm? a bear market rally?

I'm also thinking that we are going to see a seismic cultural/ economic shift, in the event the the US adopts an approach along the lines of Denmark, in dealing with our current economic crises. I think though, that if this administration and Congress, continue to pass stimulus pkg after bailout after more corporate handout, that we may enter a Japan-esque like situation. Propping up a unsastainable financial infrastructure and experiencing our own *lost decade.*

http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/200905/imf-advice
I think this guy was also interviewed by Terri Gross on Fresh Air.

Re: hoarding, vs. stockpiling, this is exactly what I am thinking. Here is an article hinting at more violent times: http://www.economist.com/opinion/dis...ry_id=13405314
And I consider the economist minimally tin-foil.
Stockpiling is for reasonable times, frugal practice during rational times.
Will we soon be facing chaos? Like not in 10 or more years, when peak water hits? Or later, when peak oil hits?
But in the next 1-2 y?
Well they think Saudi Arabia peaked in 2005 and that world oil production peaked in 2008 sooooo the only thing buffering us from peak oil is the demand destruction of the economic crisis. If Peak Oil theory is right, watch for us to get smacked down by high high oil prices the second the economy looks to be recovering and demand goes back up.

I am concerned that all this is going to unravel much faster than we realize.

Economically, stockpiling makes sense since, lately, it offers a higher return on investment than the stock market. So I am not surprised to see it mentioned, it has been mentioned in lots of non tin foil publications but no one has shouted it from the rooftops like the tin foiler group.

V
post #27 of 107
OK, I'm doom and gloomy. I think we're already in the GD2. But that being said...I think some people are going overboard. Seriously, worrying about peak oil and water? I've read the peak oil literature and agree that it's convincing, but we're decades away from it. If anything, right now there's too much oil--OPEC can't even stop supply enough to boost the price back up, which they need to do to protect their own economies. I think we have AT LEAST a decade or more before you have to worry about that, so just buy some Vespa stock and relax.

Global warming and water, truly disturbing, but the US will fare better than most countries, and again, what can you do about it? Start saving for one of those low use washers and dryers. Because the US will have water--NASA has developed technology to produce potable water from urine and sweat for goodness sake--water will just cost more than it does now. Lawns and swimming pools may become luxuries, but we're not going to run out of water in the US in our lifetimes.

There will be food. I can't believe people are really worried about this. Will you be able to get cheap off-season produce flown in from Chile? Probably not. But to think you'll have to grow your own food is going too far IMHO. Food production in the turn of the century was a lot different. No fertilizers, no hybrid crops, primitive refrigeration/storage, no global transportation systems...A Dust Bowl drought affected the entire country. Now there's a global supply chain. Food is a LOT cheaper now. Back then food was something like 45% of people's budget.

Anyway, I think we're in for some bad times, but the US has gone through boom and bust since it's inception. Some say it's part of the economic cycle. And while we don't have 1/2 of the safety net as other countries, we have much more than we did in the 1930's or other recessions/depressions, and we've had them about every 30 years since the 1700's. Each time people thought the world was coming to an end, but here we are.

So write your representative about what you think their priorities should be, save, pay off debt, live frugally, enjoy the important things in life like love and family, but don't fear the world is coming to an end.
post #28 of 107
Quote:
Originally Posted by Violet2 View Post
Well they think Saudi Arabia peaked in 2005 and that world oil production peaked in 2008 sooooo the only thing buffering us from peak oil is the demand destruction of the economic crisis. If Peak Oil theory is right, watch for us to get smacked down by high high oil prices the second the economy looks to be recovering and demand goes back up.

I am concerned that all this is going to unravel much faster than we realize.

Economically, stockpiling makes sense since, lately, it offers a higher return on investment than the stock market. So I am not surprised to see it mentioned, it has been mentioned in lots of non tin foil publications but no one has shouted it from the rooftops like the tin foiler group.

V
Oil prices will go up once inflation finally kicks in. I don't think you can say it'll be because of peak oil.

Why do you think it's going to unravel quickly? Quickly to the point that stockpiling is a better return on your money? (I hope I don't sound argumentative, imagine we're having coffee and I'm genuinely interested in your take, which I am).

The banksters are moving Hell, high water, and the next generation's tax receipts to make sure the oligarchy stays in power. An orderly, slow unwinding that serves big biz is happening as we speak, which is why I'm not concerned about derivatives. And really, IMO say that people finally get fed up and said enough w/ these crazy bailouts and let the whole house of cards fall, the only people that would be hurt are the investors. So the top 1% would take a big hit and come down to our level, give or take a million, there would be a generation that couldn't retire when planned, and a generation of retired that had their income decimated, but for the rest of us, eh, tack on another decade of earning, but other than that, so what? Yes, that would be totally suck for each everyone, but it wouldn't be as sucky as zombies breaking into your house to eat your brains and/or hoarded stash of food.

But I'm not worried about that because the sheeple are watching Dancing With the Stars instead of thinking about it.
post #29 of 107
Stockpiling actually *has* been a better return on your money than investing in the stock market for the past 6 months or so. Mostly because food costs are rising and the stock market is falling. There was an article in the Wall Street Journal (or ny times?) back in october or something about it.

ETA... maybe it was in April... http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120881517227532621.html
post #30 of 107
I think it's going to go quickly because the attrition of human cost and cost to communities is going to reach critical mass. Watching the 60 min piece I linked to really drives that concept home imo. Unless someone has lots of wealth reserves, a job loss in a struggling local economy will devastate entire families. I am starting to believe we will see riots and social unrest, how can you not take to the street when your mother was literally murdered by a financial collapse that rewarded banks and the ultra elite?

I also wanted to mention food was pointed out to offer a better return well before the stock market crashed, that's how fast prices were going up. Because, if you recall, the price of oil spiked before the crash and drove prices up. PO became mainstream in 2008 and I find it interesting that it coincided with an awful lot of speculation.

I hope we are decades from PO but many, many respected geologists and engineers think it is now. And further I don't doubt that PO can make the price of oil outpace inflation--PO price spikes will be in addition to inflation imo. Plus, the last major oil find was something like 30-40 years ago in Saudi Arabia. There has been nothing big enough to matter since then. I highly recommend the documentaries End of Suburbia and Crude Awakening (which won several awards) as they are succinct and quick ways to learn about the issue.

You can watch most (all?) of End of Suburbia here for free.


I think the US has lots of resources and could well be better off than a lot of nations, but I also think it's a fallacy t think none of this is going to touch us. And I personally am disturbed that other people elsewhere will starve due to the way we wield power in this world and control the supply chain.

And I am not full up on all the water facts at the moment, but I think we have this tendency to think 100 years from now doesn't touch us. But it does. It touches me through my children and through the incremental changes that happen over time to get to the big change at the 100 year mark. A 100 years from now is happening today. We may not be around for its peak, but we're marching up the mountain.

FREX California shut down irrigation due to water shortages this year, $1 billion in lost revenue, 40,000 jobs gone. CA is 50% of the US's fruit and nut supply. In a 100 years they don't think CA will be able to support large scale agriculture. There won't be enough water. There isn't enough water today. It's all connected. You can't ignore 100 years, because it the impact of those future changes is already hitting. In India, they already have to drill an additional 20 feet for a well, the water line has dropped that much, that fast as demand has gone up. Climate change will thaw the source water for the world's major rivers, which supply billions of people with water.

Climate change will bring dust bowl drought alternated with badly timed deluges of water (i.e. floods that wipe out crops or rain that falls outside the growing season). Right now, today, demand outpaces supply for grain and world stockpiles are dwindling. Right now today, 1/2 of the world's top exporters of grain have limited exports because they are not sure they can feed their own people. A large portion of the world's breadbaskets are experiencing drought. China was recently in the news with the statistic that 43% of their wheat crop is affected by drought, meaning their yields will be way down.

If China has drought and the US has drought (and floods) and Argentina has drought as does Brazil and India has made it illegal to export rice...exactly who is going to pick up the slack on grain production for this crop season? Russia is the only major grain producer without any drought and yet they've limited grain exports, which I find very interesting.

So yeah, I think you do need to garden. It says something that the Obamas are gardening and the Dept of Agriculture started a garden outside their building.

I think we could easily return to food being 45% or more of family's budgets. Easily. Food may be on the shelves, but we will be able to afford it? It's not just about availability, it's about price as well. Ask the people in Zimbabwe.

If scientists think we're locked into a 4 degree increase over the next 100 years, this means that in my lifetime we will see more and more drought, more intense storms, the coral reefs will be gone, most of the ocean's fish will be gone. It's not like nothing happens until the 100 year mark and then *poof* it all goes to hell in a nanosecond. We will be living through some catastrophic ecological changes. Our children could see even worse.

What can I do about climate change? Reduce my carbon footprint, buy local food, reduce, reuse, recycle. I can help others reduce their carbon footprint. I can be sure my family lives in a sustainable place with readily available water because, while it may not be an issue today, it will be an issue in the future and owning land with water will be valuable.

The world is not coming to an end. A way of life is. And geopolitics are shifting meaning the power chips are falling and where they land is anyone's guess. There is profound change ahead and I don't think Nasa's ability to turn my urine into potable water is going to take the edge off.

V
post #31 of 107
But based on your post, the world as we know it HAS to change. And I wish I could agree that it will, but I think the oligarchy isn't going to give up w/o a massive fight.

Not to offend anyone, but this fear--fear of 100 years down the road, for instance--while worth thinking about and acting on, detracts us from the real issues of now, which is...we're getting screwed! Right now! Our government is totally ignoring We, the People in favor of the uber wealthy. I think that's what we should be concerned about, and I think it's no coincidence that MM is suddenly so full of doom and gloom stories. It's like 9/11 all over again, except this time the banksters are the terrorists, and we're so focused on TSHTF that we're missing things like estate tax reform and breaking the unions and what little worker protections we have.

Yes, of course reduce your carbon footprint and everything else (and btw I'm doing the same thing so it isn't like I'm driving off in my Hummer on my daily grocery store run disregarding your points), but we need to write to our papers and our representatives and tell them to get their act together! And then we need to vote all those bums out. :

Worrying about our children's water supply is worthwhile and important, but I'm more worried about them not growing up in a banana republic. That, to me, is TrealSHTF.
post #32 of 107
Quote:
Originally Posted by Juvysen View Post
Stockpiling actually *has* been a better return on your money than investing in the stock market for the past 6 months or so. Mostly because food costs are rising and the stock market is falling. There was an article in the Wall Street Journal (or ny times?) back in october or something about it.

ETA... maybe it was in April... http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120881517227532621.html
Yeah, I remember reading that article at the time. But as I remember it, it was more pointing out the tanking of the market. I mean, you can't really say "return on your money" unless you're reselling your food vs. selling your investments. Believe it or not, I have some tstocks hat have gone up. Of course I have some that make me want to throw up...
post #33 of 107
Because we really needed one more thing to worry about in regards to TSHTF, I just found this article (regarding oil).

http://www.reuters.com/article/newsO...BrandChannel=0
post #34 of 107
Quote:
Originally Posted by newbymom05 View Post
Yeah, I remember reading that article at the time. But as I remember it, it was more pointing out the tanking of the market. I mean, you can't really say "return on your money" unless you're reselling your food vs. selling your investments. Believe it or not, I have some tstocks hat have gone up. Of course I have some that make me want to throw up...
I guess you might call it "savings" on food that you'd end up buying later anyway but at a MUCH higher price. Is it a return on your money? Yeah, sorta because you'd end up buying later no matter what (girl's gotta eat, yk?) but not in the sense that you're selling it later for profit (although, i guess you never know ).

To be specific, the article says:
Quote:
Food prices are already rising here much faster than the returns you are likely to get from keeping your money in a bank or money-market fund. And there are very good reasons to believe prices on the shelves are about to start rising a lot faster.
Basically you'll save a higher percent on buying food now (well, last april) than you would get as a return on your investments.
post #35 of 107
Quote:
Originally Posted by ~Boudicca~ View Post
Because we really needed one more thing to worry about in regards to TSHTF, I just found this article (regarding oil).

http://www.reuters.com/article/newsO...BrandChannel=0
Good find!

"Unless oil demand falls by 10 or 15 percent per annum, which it is not going to do, then we don't need to wait for oil demand to come back before we have a supply crunch," he said.

"Within a few months, we are going to realize our visible inventories are really tight -- squeaky tight -- and what would really be inconvenient is to see a recovery in the economy."

He sees oil prices eventually exceeding last year's high"

Matt Simmons was an advisor to W. Bush btw which I always find interesting. He's also interviewed for the documentary Crude Awakening.

On another topic, we have an outlier beyond the economy, resource limits and climate change; the sun is due for some major activity that could wipe out our grid. Sounds crazy I know, but it happened in the 1800s and wiped out the telegraph system.

Anyone else following the sun? I've been hearing about it for a while and now it's hitting mainstream media.

Is it just me or is everything going wonky at the same time?

V
post #36 of 107
Quote:
Originally Posted by Violet2 View Post

Is it just me or is everything going wonky at the same time?

V
2012 is coming...
post #37 of 107
Quote:
Originally Posted by obiandelismom View Post
2012 is coming...
:

Darn, where's that tinfoil hat smilie?

:
post #38 of 107
Quote:
Originally Posted by obiandelismom View Post
2012 is coming...
W hat did I miss about this year?
post #39 of 107
Quote:
Originally Posted by claddaghmom View Post
W hat did I miss about this year?
uh... well, there's a couple threads about 2012 on here somewhere, but...

here's the wiki: http://2012wiki.com/index.php?title=Main_Page

Basically, the Mayan (and other?) calendar ends in 2012 and it's predicted as a time of massive change (not the end of the world, per se, just big changes). It's also a galactic alignment of some sort, in terms of moving into the age of aquarius? or something? Sorry, I'm not overly clear on it, but I do know that it's predicted to have BIG changes.
post #40 of 107
Quote:
Originally Posted by Juvysen View Post
uh... well, there's a couple threads about 2012 on here somewhere, but...

here's the wiki: http://2012wiki.com/index.php?title=Main_Page

Basically, the Mayan (and other?) calendar ends in 2012 and it's predicted as a time of massive change (not the end of the world, per se, just big changes). It's also a galactic alignment of some sort, in terms of moving into the age of aquarius? or something? Sorry, I'm not overly clear on it, but I do know that it's predicted to have BIG changes.
The show I watched on Discovery (or whatever channel) was very emphatic that 2012 in the Mayan calendar was not the END, but a NEW BEGINNING

Looking back on the program it very likely was designed to keep people from freaking out, lol. But that's how I'm looking at it whenever I hear about 2012: a new beginning. Because what am I going to anyway if it turns out to be TEOTW anyways? There's not enough tin foil in the world to protect me from alien nuclear invasions, or whatever.
New Posts  All Forums:Forum Nav:
  Return Home
  Back to Forum: Frugality & Finances
Mothering › Mothering Forums › Natural Living › The Mindful Home › Frugality & Finances › WTSHTF... is it coming?