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MMR Study II [14 studies website read along (SPIN OFF)] - Page 2

post #21 of 36
Thread Starter 
I'm really disappointed in these studies so far. If a bunch of amateurs (and face it, we are amateurs) can find major problems with no huge effort, how in the world did these studies pass peer review and how did they get spread far and wide as proving that MMR doesn't cause autism?

Stinky fish in Denmark?
post #22 of 36
Quote:
Originally Posted by MissRubyandKen View Post
Look at table 2. Maybe I am interpreting this incorrectly, but aren't there absolutely no numbers under the No MMR vaccination categories? This is what led me to say all were vaccinated.
The reason there are no numbers there is because that's what they're comparing to -- they set that value as 1, then assess the odds ratios of vaxed versus not vaxed in relation to it (look at Table 3, it makes a little more sense if you see it visually).
post #23 of 36
Quote:
Originally Posted by Deborah View Post
I'm pretty disappointed that no one is defending this study. There must be something good about it. It got peer-reviewed and published and widely praised.
OK, I'll jump to its defence. There's nothing wrong with the study itself. It's a retrospective statistical analysis of MMR status and autism. The authors are simply looking existing records to see whether a higher perentage of kids with autism got MMR than kids without autism. They didn't.

This study *cannot* tell you whether MMR triggers autism in a subgoup of vulnerable children. As the authors point out, they didn't (or couldn't) separate out a subset of kids with what I'll call autistic enterocolitis. To do so, they would have had to figure out how to identify "autistic enterocolitis" from the existing medical records. This would have been frought with problems: no-one can agree on how to define it, or even whether it exists.

Problems occur when studies such as these are spun to imply that MMR does not cause autism. This study does not -- cannot -- show that. It can only provide circumstantial evidence.
post #24 of 36
Quote:
Originally Posted by CallMeIshmael View Post
The reason there are no numbers there is because that's what they're comparing to -- they set that value as 1, then assess the odds ratios of vaxed versus not vaxed in relation to it (look at Table 3, it makes a little more sense if you see it visually).
Thanks, I'll have another look.
post #25 of 36
Quote:
Originally Posted by CallMeIshmael View Post
(look at Table 3, it makes a little more sense if you see it visually).
Sorry, meant look at Figure 2.
post #26 of 36
Will do. I'm so glad it isn't my job to design, carry out, and write these studies.
post #27 of 36
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by CallMeIshmael View Post
OK, I'll jump to its defence. There's nothing wrong with the study itself. It's a retrospective statistical analysis of MMR status and autism. The authors are simply looking existing records to see whether a higher perentage of kids with autism got MMR than kids without autism. They didn't.

This study *cannot* tell you whether MMR triggers autism in a subgoup of vulnerable children. As the authors point out, they didn't (or couldn't) separate out a subset of kids with what I'll call autistic enterocolitis. To do so, they would have had to figure out how to identify "autistic enterocolitis" from the existing medical records. This would have been frought with problems: no-one can agree on how to define it, or even whether it exists.

Problems occur when studies such as these are spun to imply that MMR does not cause autism. This study does not -- cannot -- show that. It can only provide circumstantial evidence.
Why do you think it is spun?

Seems to me that the spin undermines the science, in the long run. People see the spin, read the study and see that the study doesn't support the spin and conclude, not unreasonably, that the science is bs and politically motivated.

Also strikes me that the study fundamentally goes wrong in the basic question.

The question is not if MMR commonly causes autism in most children. It is perfectly obvious that it doesn't. The question is whether MMR provokes autism in some children. The results of the study look to me as though they support the possibility. Some children in the study became autistic following MMR. A good study would have located some of these children and collected detailed case histories to see if there actually was a connection, or not.
post #28 of 36
Thread Starter 
Okay, here is the big question.

Are the studies "proving" that MMR isn't connected to autism deliberately structured to miss the relevant children? To avoid collecting the inconvenient data?

These first two studies that we've looked at both come across that way. When you add the spin as the cherry on top it looks like this:

We don't want to see that there is a connection between the MMR and sick children who are being labeled as autistic.

so

We will do studies that deliberately avoid looking at the actual sick kids, or if the studies do look at the actual sick kids we'll look at as small a group as we can possibly manage (5 in the case of the first study).

And we'll set up the studies so the results can't possibly verify the existence of these children or the connection between their symptoms and the MMR.

And finally we'll spin the results as hard as we can so the studies can be described as definitive (which they aren't) and closing the case (which they don't) and then we'll mock all the parents who describe what happened to their children and say that anecdotes don't add up to science, and the case is closed.

The scientists who do these studies get widely praised and I'm sure get grants and support and good stuff. Whereas every doctor who has done a study showing problems with MMR...how much you want to bet that at the very least their grant money dried up...some are probably out of work...and in the worst case scenario they get their reputations totally trashed AND lose their jobs AND get dragged through a two year legal case threatening their medical licenses.

It is hard to see the process as anything but corrupt. Nor as anything except a "defend the vaccine at all costs" system.
post #29 of 36
Thread Starter 
Ran into this nifty piece:

http://www.plosmedicine.org/article/...l.pmed.0040019

Ghost Authorship in Industry-Initiated Randomised Trials

Quote:
We conducted a cohort study comparing protocols and corresponding publications for industry-initiated trials approved by the Scientific-Ethical Committees for Copenhagen and Frederiksberg in 1994–1995.
Quote:
We conclude that ghost authorship in industry-initiated randomised trials is very common, and we believe that this practice serves commercial purposes [13,17,21,22]. Its prevalence could be considerably reduced if existing guidelines were followed; in particular, journals should list the contributions of all authors [24]. In addition, journals could ask for the name and affiliation of the statistician who analysed the data, if this information is not clear. To improve transparency and accountability, there is also a need to specify in protocols who the statisticians and authors will be, and to make protocols and raw data from trials publicly available for independent analyses and interpretation [3,9,13,25]. This practice could increase the likelihood that publications accurately, fairly, and comprehensively reflect the collected data.
Something else to keep in mind as we read the other 17 studies that demonstrate the safety of vaccines. [reminder, 14 studies web-site currently lists 19 studies]


* please note that this is an open-accessarticle: Gøtzsche PC, Hróbjartsson A, Johansen HK, Haahr MT, Altman DG, et al. 2007 Ghost Authorship in Industry-Initiated Randomised Trials. PLoS Med 4(1): e19. doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.0040019
~amnesiac
post #30 of 36
Quote:
Originally Posted by Deborah View Post
Whereas every doctor who has done a study showing problems with MMR...how much you want to bet that at the very least their grant money dried up...some are probably out of work...and in the worst case scenario they get their reputations totally trashed AND lose their jobs AND get dragged through a two year legal case threatening their medical licenses.

It is hard to see the process as anything but corrupt. Nor as anything except a "defend the vaccine at all costs" system.
Devils advocate... but with all the 'press' on this issue (and some relatively 'famous' support (at least of people questioning) McCarthy/Carrey, Kennedy, Toni Braxton etc.), wouldn't you think if that was the case one of these doctor's would come forward?

Jessica
post #31 of 36
Thread Starter 
doctors on which side?

And I'm not sure that any of this is ever clearly laid out as in: "let's do a bunch of fake studies to cover up vaccine damage".

It just sort of flows...
post #32 of 36
Quote:
Originally Posted by Deborah View Post
Okay, here is the big question.

Are the studies "proving" that MMR isn't connected to autism deliberately structured to miss the relevant children? To avoid collecting the inconvenient data?
...
We don't want to see that there is a connection between the MMR and sick children who are being labeled as autistic.

so

We will do studies that deliberately avoid looking at the actual sick kids, or if the studies do look at the actual sick kids we'll look at as small a group as we can possibly manage...And we'll set up the studies so the results can't possibly verify the existence of these children or the connection between their symptoms and the MMR.

The problem is, it's tough to have it both ways.

You can do a big epidemiological study that by its very definition can only tell you about population-level trends. If your study is really huge, you might be able to pull out some useful subgroup analyses. And at most, you can say that your data don't support a connection between, say, MMR and autism at the level of the population.

Or you can do a small targeted study in the lab, one that looks at individual kids. Apologies -- I only skimmed the first study, but it seemed to involve kids with GI symptoms + autism vs. GI symptoms + no autism, all of whom had undergone endoscopy. It involved actual biopsy specimens, and subjected those tissue samples to real-time PCR to look for measles. This is no trivial undertaking. It's no surprise that the numbers in this kind of study are tiny. And what can you say at the end? Well, we didn't find any more measles in one tiny group of kids versus the other. But you can't say anything about the group as a whole.

They're very different types of studies, performed in very different conditions (offices vs labs), by very different types of scientists (clinical vs basic) with very different types of training (MPH vs PhD in molecular bio).

As for the spin, well, that's coming from many different places. The scientists themselves are eager to get press, the press is eager to sell airtime (or ad space). True, there's a big desire to maintian the status quo, but I don't see it as a giant hush campagin.

From my reviews, the epidemiological evidence is limited in any given study, but starts to become more persuasive when several studies from different countries show the same thing. And the biomolecular data is intriguing but has the potential for major flaws that send everybody barking up the wrong tree (still have to review those studies).
post #33 of 36
I meant researchers/doctors who realized what is goign on... ie the scewing the selection, etc.

You said:
Quote:
Are the studies "proving" that MMR isn't connected to autism deliberately structured to miss the relevant children? To avoid collecting the inconvenient data?
Quote:
Whereas every doctor who has done a study showing problems with MMR...how much you want to bet that at the very least their grant money dried up...some are probably out of work...and in the worst case scenario they get their reputations totally trashed AND lose their jobs AND get dragged through a two year legal case threatening their medical licenses.
I would think that these doctors/researchers could come forward now.

Again, playing devil's advocate... but I think going down that road (that scientists are deliberatly scewing studies) evokes a sense of 'conspiracy theory' and that's a hard leap for many to take, and often makes people less likely to see the overall logic and science an anti-vax opinion rests upon.

Or perhaps it is just too late and I'm not making sense or being productive...
Jessica
post #34 of 36
Verstraeten did come forward and say his study was being misused but that was ignored just like the study's actual conclusions are ignored. Pharma swooped him up and pays his salary now so don't expect him to come out with any more studies showing vaccines are bad. All of his original data is "lost" which is very convenient for pharma.

Maybe if Wakefield is vindicated more doctors will come forward but not many doctors want to commit career suicide even if they have celebrity support.
post #35 of 36
Thread Starter 
All we have to go on is the phenomena.

The phenomena is a pile of studies which "show" no connection between vaccines and autism. And a lot of spin making loud noises about these studies and attacking any parent with concerns, especially the parents of physically ill children with autism.

We can keep looking at the studies one by one. So far, two studies, both with serious problems, both widely spun.

What is going on behind the curtain is a mystery, but the studies are something we can look at.

I'll start study number III in the MMR series next week, unless someone beats me to it. (hint, hint, hint)
post #36 of 36
Thread Starter 
*
Just as I was feeling pretty frustrated--it seems obvious that the data is being manipulated--Olmsted publishes an article on Age of Autism laying out another example of an effective cover up of pharmaceutical related mayhem. This sort of thing happens. Nowadays it seems to be a very popular approach to dealing with problems--bury them.

Here is the link: http://www.ageofautism.com/2009/04/d...-of-doubt.html

MANUFACTURE OF DOUBT!
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