What do you think would happen...

[mysticmomma]

If places like the US, UK, etc (not talking third world countries here just for arguments sake) stopped vaxing?


I suspect there would be no major increase in the incidence of the "vpd's" and a decrease in autoimmune issues. I also think any incidence of increase would be mild and we would not be seeing a bunch of deaths over the "vpd's."

What do you think?

[tessie]

I think that VPDs would increase. That's what has happened apparently in areas with a low take up of vaccinations.

Why do you think they wouldn't increase?

[Mama2Bug]

I think there would be an increase in VPDs, though not of epidemic proportions or anything. I agree that there would be a decrease in autoimmune issues (and other conditions/diseases), though that would only show over a significant period of time.

[miriam]

This will never happen. So do not worry.

To tell the truth, IF it did happen, doctors would over-diagnose the vaccine preventable diseases by simply diagnosing by clinical observation, not ordering laboratory results. This is ridiculous since most doctors under the age of sixty have not typically seen a real case of measles, mumps, rubella, or other diseases. I suspect that they have, but they do not diagnose or report these diseases since they assume the vaccines do the job....

And the health officials would be screaming epidemic! from every venue on every media.

[mysticmomma]

I'm not worried. Just curious about what others think.

[KoalaMommy]

What's happened with the HiB rates since the vax shortage?

[ema-adama]

Childhood illnesses - Mumps, measles, rubella, chickenpox. These diseases have never been dangerous for the majority of healthy children. I am sure that if vaccines were stopped, we would see more cases of these illnesses. Which does not need to be a scary thing if the public are educated and know how to nurse children through these illnesses. But, yes, I would expect to see an increase in the number of cases of these illnesses

Meningitis vaccines - More research needs to be done on how to prevent bacteria and viruses from becoming invasive in the first place. How can the immune system best be supported so that this does not happen. Again, education of the public plays an important role here. I do not think we would see an increase in the overall number of cases of menigitis.

Polio - I am not sure. I think there is much more to becoming paralysed by polio than exposure alone
to the virus. I am guessing it has something to do with trying to understand how polio virus crosses through the gut in order to attack the nervous system. That would be an interesting study.... although I'm dreaming here, I do realise that.

Pertussis - I'm not altogether sure there isn't endemic pertussis already. The *reported* cases might increase.

Flu - This is hardly an effective vaccine from what I understand. I would not expect to see an increase in numbers of people with flu.

Tetanus - I would not expect to see an increase in the numbers of tetanus cases, providing good wound management is standard

IMO, it's not good enough to just not give children vaccines. It needs to go hand in hand with understanding how to support immune development (this is HUGE) and how to nurse/care for a child through illness.

All this is just pure fantasy though. I honestly cannot envision a future without vaccines. I hope that it becomes a medical intervention that parents have the option of choosing, rather than the frustration of fighting to reject.

[miriam]

As Thomas Edison said,"If all of the medicine were thrown into the sea, it would be better for mankind and bad for the fishes."

[vegasgrl]

I have ZERO accurate numbers here, but I immediately thought of the fact that many (most?) adults are not current on their vaxes. I know I'm not. And aren't there way more adults than children? (See, no numbers to back me up here.) Granted, kids have more disease-passing opportunities, what with kid-like hygeine and generally more intermingling. (This might not actually be true? Here in Vegas there are a LOT of people that work in casinos, for instance.) But it would seem to me that since the majority of the population as a whole isn't vaxed anyway, stopping vax for kids wouldn't have THAT much of an impact, would it?

Anyone have any hard facts to support my random hypothesis?

[miriam]

Originally Posted by tessie

I think that VPDs would increase. That's what has happened apparently in areas with a low take up of vaccinations.

Why do you think they wouldn't increase?

Why do you think VPDs would increase?

In Ashland, OR and in places like SFO, CA, there are not epidemic numbers of reported VPDs in school age children.

The vaccine rates for children entering kindergarten are at record lows in these areas.

Originally Posted by vegasgrl

And aren't there way more adults than children? (See, no numbers to back me up here.)

As I have read and researched, the one single group of adults that refuses to maintain their boosters are OBGYNs with their MMR boosters because of the well known side effect of arthritis.

[Gladiolus]

Originally Posted by vegasgrl

Granted, kids have more disease-passing opportunities, what with kid-like hygeine and generally more intermingling. (This might not actually be true? Here in Vegas there are a LOT of people that work in casinos, for instance.)

I was thinking about this while trying to go to sleep last night. Kids seem to get the blame for disease spreading but adults are just as dirty. I know I wash my hands after going to the bathroom and sneezing but how many adults regularly wash hands? What about after touching public places, public transportation, money, etc etc. I constantly see sick adults still in public. I know I've gone out sometimes I shouldn't because I had to get something done. I just don't buy the mainstream idea that kids are the only group passing sickness on. We all kiss and hug, shake hands with others, etc. so it would only make sense to say we all have a part in passing germs on.

Just some thoughts.

[PlayaMama]

Originally Posted by miriam

Why do you think VPDs would increase?

In Ashland, OR and in places like SFO, CA, there are not epidemic numbers of reported VPDs in school age children.

The vaccine rates for children entering kindergarten are at record lows in these areas.



As I have read and researched, the one single group of adults that refuses to maintain their boosters are OBGYNs with their MMR boosters because of the well known side effect of arthritis.

well, i think they'd increase as well. i think the fact that several towns with low vaccination rates don't have high numbers of these diseases is more a product of the low rates in the country overall than any special benefit conferred upon the non-vaxed.

i don't think anyone says that vaxes never confer immunity so there obviously must be some protection offered by having large numbers of people vaxed.

also, can you direct me to the ob/gyn refusal to get the mmr booster? i would think that it would be more common in someone more hands-on like cardiac surgeons.

[PlayaMama]

Originally Posted by Gladiolus

I just don't buy the mainstream idea that kids are the only group passing sickness on. We all kiss and hug, shake hands with others, etc. so it would only make sense to say we all have a part in passing germs on.

Just some thoughts.

i agree with this but having worked in a school i can say that i see more kids that are sick than adults in the general population. i think it's because kids haven't been exposed to as much so they get every illness that comes around.

i also think that even if some adults don't wash their hands a lot they are still more hygienic than pretty much any kid. they eat their booger! just kidding, mostly.

[miriam]

Originally Posted by PlayaMama

well, i think they'd increase as well. i think the fact that several towns with low vaccination rates don't have high numbers of these diseases is more a product of the low rates in the country overall than any special benefit conferred upon the non-vaxed.

I did not know that San Francisco was considered a small town.

i don't think anyone says that vaxes never confer immunity so there obviously must be some protection offered by having large numbers of people vaxed.
.

I say that vaccines NEVER confer immunity.

There are other factors at work in our modern age as better nutrition, better food storage, better trash management, and better sanitation; these events have taken place in the past 200 years at the same time government health officials have forced vaccines on the populations.

Always learn the opposition's side. The problem is that doctors have ignored non-vaxers for decades and have made fun of them without learning their point of view. There is another point of view, and it is worth examining. The leaders of the anti-vaccine movement in the 1930's were all medical doctors. Ask yourself why.

[carriebft]

We have evidence that pertussis rates are higher in areas that have high vaccination refusal. We also have evidence for tetanus in the unvaccinated as well as Measles, Mumps and Rubella. We have plenty of information on the hib cases seen these days as being almost exclusively in unvaccinated or undervaccinated kids (with most being in the former category) I could go on, but I think the claim that VPDs won't go up is simply false because we already have evidence that that is not true. See the current measles outbreaks for more on that.

Or just think about history. Before the vaccine: hundreds of thousands of cases. After: under 100. Same with chicken pox really-- these diseases use to be ones everyone got and now they are not.

the AAP magazine Pediatrics just recently published a paper on the changes in rotavirus activity since the vaccine. I will see if I can find it and post it here as another example of VPD activity changed by vaccines.

[carriebft]

http://pediatrics.aappublications.or...ract/124/2/465


there it is.


However, I would note that something like Polio is not likely to jump back because cases need to be imported and it doesn't seem like that is a very big possibility....whereas, with something like measles, we see importation all the time (see San Diego last year, for example)

[PlayaMama]

Originally Posted by miriam

I did not know that San Francisco was considered a small town.

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i said several towns, not small towns...
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There are other factors at work in our modern age as better nutrition, better food storage, better trash management, and better sanitation; these events have taken place in the past 200 years at the same time government health officials have forced vaccines on the populations.

Always learn the opposition's side.

hmmm... i should let you know that i lean towards the tf/whole foods type of diet so the "better nutrition" idea doesn't really fly with me. wonder bread and snickers or processed grains and processed sugars (most often found in the SAD standard american diet) don't really count as better nutrition to me.

trash management and sanitation are for sure better now. hello running water! but i really don't think those can account for the dramatic decreases in these diseases. what about chicken pox? it's totally not as common as before the vax.

i did spend time researching the vax topic believe it or not. i went from mostly okay with most vaxes to not okay with any and now back to okay with several.

[miriam]

My father, a doctor, worked in third world countries after WWII building villages, cleaning upholstery, washing clothes, building irrigation systems, teaching nutrition, teaching hygiene, building and teaching proper toileting, and after all of that work, the people were lined up and given vaccines...what got the credit for disease prevention? Just the vaccines, not the herculean efforts that preceded it.

Read the book The Year 1000, a part of which examines why communicable diseases were not so prevalent because people lived far apart on small farms and NOT crowded in messy little towns on the ports as they were 300+ years later during the era of the Bubonic Plague.

[PlayaMama]

Originally Posted by miriam

My father, a doctor, worked in third world countries after WWII building villages, cleaning upholstery, washing clothes, building irrigation systems, teaching nutrition, teaching hygiene, building and teaching proper toileting, and after all of that work, the people were lined up and given vaccines...what got the credit for disease prevention? Just the vaccines, not the herculean efforts that preceded it.

Read the book The Year 1000, a part of which examines why communicable diseases were not so prevalent because people lived far apart on small farms and NOT crowded in messy little towns on the ports as they were 300+ years later during the era of the Bubonic Plague.

but i didn't say that those things did not affect the rates of diseases... i just think that vaxes were definitely part of it. i would think most doctors would admit those things as well.

i'm not quite sure why the second point was brought up? i can only imagine that the diseases weren't as transmissible because people weren't in close contact. no argument there.

still, what about chicken pox?

[miriam]

No. My father, even as a doctor, believed that the vaccines were useless. He believed that the other factors were stronger against disease than anything the vaccines could do.

When the people moved to towns close to the ports and lived in filthy conditions with vermin, disease overwhelmed them. It is the poor living conditions, lack of good water and lack of hygiene that spread disease. And the plague resolved itself after a number of years. Diseases come and diseases go.

Chicken pox...as Sherri Nakken mentioned, there is a big difference between exposure and true immunity. These children who get the chicken pox vaccine will only revisit the same virus as shingles as adults since they do not have true immunity.

Look at the Rubella vaccine: many adult women of childbearing age today have no true immunity against rubella whereas in past generations, little girls got rubella, acquired lifetime immunity. The vaccine only lasts eight years at best. Do most adult women keep their MMR up-to-date? I sincerely doubt it.