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Has anyone seen this report (re::swine flu peak Oct 15thish)?

post #1 of 34
Thread Starter 
This report got sent to me in my email today (my mom is our federal representatives' local rep)....I haven't read the whole thing but freaked when I saw this::

"Following a relatively steady or declining burden of cases in August, the number of new cases will begin to rise exponentially in the first week of September,[/b] growing 10-fold about every 10 to12 days. Hypothetically, the peak incidence of infection nationally will occur around October 15, with minor variations across the country such that peak incidence almost everywhere will occur during the month of October. At this peak, perhaps 1 to 2 percent of the population will become infected each day."

Not that these things can always be trusted (um, especially coming from the gov't) but I am just freaked out slightly because I am 8 mos pregnant, have two very small children, and am DUE Oct 7. I am already preparing for a new baby, and now I feel like I need to 'prepare' for flu season early--for at the same time as the baby! Blah.

UGH.
post #2 of 34
Considering that in the southern hemisphere where it is flu season right now, the swine flu is proving no more virulent than it has been all along, I can't see how the governemtn can predict anything with certainty. I think they are putting out worst case scenario messages because the vaccine will be coming out soon and they want you to run out and get it.

I hear your fear and I am worried to. I don't think there is any way to know what will happen and what this flu will do. People can speculate and assume and make predictions all they want, but time is the only thing that can tell us what willl happen.

Personaly i think preparing for any exposure to anything is something we do every day anyway. Keep your immune system strong, get lots of sleep, wash your hands, stay away from sick people, eat a healthy diet, take various supplements to boost immunity and have some natural products stockpiled in case you do become ill with anything (cold, flu or otherwise). What else can you do? I suppose you can run out and get vaccinated, but personally I think that is a very bad idea!
post #3 of 34
It makes sense.... The first week of school, all children who attend public and private schools are back in close quarters with hundreds of other kids. The flu, like many other communicable diseases, will start circulating more frequently, especially as parents continue to send their children in to school with a "cough and sniffle". The children then pass it on to others in the home and community.

The same thing happens after Christmas break. The reason it would be happening this year in October is because the swine flu, unlike the seasonal flu, never really went away over the summer.

I know that around here, there was a cluster of swine flu cases a couple weeks ago among children who started band practice early and among children who stayed in dorms at the local fair because they were showing their animals. All it took was multiple children in close contact for it to start spreading...now those children that were exposed at practice and at the fair are in school...
post #4 of 34
Fantastic. I don't know how they can be so specific on this, but I suppose I had better start stocking up stuff in case anyone comes down with anything. Here's to hoping that there's nothing that sends me to the hospital when this little guy decides to come out in October. :
post #5 of 34
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Marnica View Post
Personaly i think preparing for any exposure to anything is something we do every day anyway. Keep your immune system strong, get lots of sleep, wash your hands, stay away from sick people, eat a healthy diet, take various supplements to boost immunity and have some natural products stockpiled in case you do become ill with anything (cold, flu or otherwise). What else can you do? I suppose you can run out and get vaccinated, but personally I think that is a very bad idea!
yeah, I suppose we do too, I was just thinking we'd get more 'serious' about it this year--doing things like making fire cider and theives oil, really doing well on nutrition and supplements, etc....I just put in an order to iherb for thing like sodium ascorbate, etc.....I guess I am just frustrated because I thought we had till AFTER the baby comes...at least (like till late Oct. before needing to actually be concerned).

Oh well....I guess I should stock my pantry a little now and get to! lol
post #6 of 34
Quote:
The reason it would be happening this year in October is because the swine flu, unlike the seasonal flu, never really went away over the summer.
the season flu doesn't go away over the summer, there's just not as many people who get it.
post #7 of 34
Quote:
Originally Posted by CarrieMF View Post
the season flu doesn't go away over the summer, there's just not as many people who get it.
post #8 of 34
Is the president expected to actually read all 86 pages?

I didn't realize this was a book, at first I thought it was just a "report." lol

Got to love how Vitamin D is never mentioned once in the entire report.

Just think of what we could accomplish as a nation if we poured our time and resources into using less costly (and more effective) measures for influenza. We already have an epidemic of people in this country who are vitamin D deficient, setting them up for not only catching the flu, but for more serious chronic diseases like cancer... this isn't a "what if" scenario but something that is happening right now at this very moment... where's the report to the president about this?


Regarding the actual report, did anyone actually read the whole thing and does it say anything we don't know? lol
post #9 of 34
These predictions are actually conservative and based on solid modeling and evidence from the past. Both 1957 and 1918 peaked in mid-October. The deep South is already getting hit hard as per reports from GA, AL, and LA; so are many parts of the world like India who reported over 30 deaths in 5 hours yesterday...

Apparently though half of the infections will occur post-peak, since it is expected mostly children/young adults will get sick at first, with others following later.

And I do find it criminal that vitamin D is not mentioned--getting most people supplemented now could save hundreds of lives and it is the cheapest possible intervention available. That and sodium ascorbate!!
post #10 of 34
Quote:
Originally Posted by dessismama View Post
The deep South is already getting hit hard as per reports from GA, AL, and LA; so are many parts of the world like India who reported over 30 deaths in 5 hours yesterday...
Links to sources on this?
post #11 of 34
post #12 of 34
My only concern is that the gov't will push the vaccine on us before then.
post #13 of 34
Quote:
Originally Posted by Metasequoia View Post
My only concern is that the gov't will push the vaccine on us before then.
My mom called me last night to tell me that she saw a news report that was saying that they are trying to get the vaccine released before the trials are over because they "need it now". I don't know what network it was though.
post #14 of 34
So from what I'm reading it will peak just as the vaccine comes out? Then we will be getting natural immunity just as they trying to push people to inject their kids with the shot. From what I've been reading if less people gave their kids the flu shot to begin with they would have more immunity like us adults who got the flu as kids. The danger to them would be much lower.
post #15 of 34
Quote:
Got to love how Vitamin D is never mentioned once in the entire report.
Ditto.
Just saw this this morning though -

Canada Looks at Vitamin D for Swine Flu Protection
post #16 of 34
post #17 of 34
Regarding one of the links posted previously (http://www.myfoxal.com/Global/story.asp?S=10969447)

Quote:
H1N1 spreads at rapid pace across Alabama

During a morning news conference, State Health Officer Don Williamson said the number of those infected is growing by the hour.

Out of the last 1000 flu cases they have tested, all but four of them have tested positive for the H1N1 virus.

Williamson said the state will no longer test all flu cases for the swine flu virus and adds that almost all of the people infected with the flu right now are infected with H1N1.

...Experts revealed this morning that two vaccines will be needed, one in the fall and another in January.
Say what??? I thought they were planning to give the two shots 3 weeks apart.

This is really getting very strange.

On another note, as many people here already have figured out, by the time the vaccines are actually ready, the majority of schoolkids will already have been exposed to the virus, thus eliminating any need for the vaccine! Duh!
post #18 of 34
Soooooooooooooooo what the heck happened to that Flu Watch website? Unless I am totally stupid...it seems to have vanished.
post #19 of 34
Quote:
Originally Posted by newmum35 View Post
Say what??? I thought they were planning to give the two shots 3 weeks apart.

This is really getting very strange.
I wonder if they mean that there will be two totally different vaccines, for different strains. Each vaccine might have 2 shots in the series. This is just a guess though. And very strange, either way.
post #20 of 34
Just out of curiousity ... how much vitamin D would an adult take to get up to a good level? I've never been tested for deficiency but I probably am because I'm not outside a lot due to very easy skin damage (and I do use sunscreen).
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