Quick response to issue of herd immunity

[bluedaisy]

One of my facebook friends posted this article and asked for opinions...he is undecided about vaxes and is genuinely questioning them so I want to respond....what is a 1-2 sentence response to the issue of herd immunity?

THanks!

http://www.usatoday.com/news/health/...nes06_CV_N.htm

[Deborah]

Considering the length of the article you're responding to, I don't think there would be a one or two sentence response. There are specific problems all the way through the article.

Meningitis for example, can be caused by a host of bacteria. The vaccines push out some, but they will eventually be replaced by others. There is a good series of articles on this problem, called serotype replacement, on insidevaccines.

The diphtheria and and pertussis vaccines don't necessarily create herd immunity. In fact it is quite doubtful that they provide herd immunity, because they aren't vaccines against bacteria, they are vaccines against toxins produced by bacteria.

So, what it comes down to is that factually, only a few vaccines produce herd immunity that really stops the circulation of the disease, but the broad argument is used to push all vaccines. That constitutes a fundamental dishonesty right there.

[mamakay]

Herd immunity and chickenpox:
http://insidevaccines.com/wordpress/...-sure-why-not/

Herd immunity and pertussis:
http://insidevaccines.com/wordpress/...-transmission/

Herd immunity and Hib/Prevnar:
http://insidevaccines.com/wordpress/...gate-vaccines/

[carriebft]

The one thing I don't like about inside vaccines is that they really cherry pick on their data. For example, they do not include recent studies out of Europe showing little to no serotype replacement and also talk about Hia and Hif (and other subtypes) as if they are equal in invasiveness and outcomes to hib:

With Hib and “replacement disease”, if you just compare h influenza serotype B to serotype A, it would appear that killing off Hib via mass vaccination was extremely successful in the grand scheme of things. When you look at nontypeable (also known as “non capsulated”) h influenzae plus Hia and Hif, that’s when you start seeing that we’re not really any better off now than we were before the Hib conjugate vaccine.

To me this is really bad science and horrible argument.

[Deborah]

sorry, I didn't mean to switch this thread into a debate about insidevaccines!

which was part of the reason I didn't put in the links.

the argument that the diphtheria vaccine provides herd immunity is really bad science and horrible argument...

[carriebft]

There is a really great thread somewhere in the archives on the DTaP/ transmission issue and also some good new data out on this as well. (maybe we need another thread?)

[mamakay]

The one thing I don't like about inside vaccines is that they really cherry pick on their data. For example, they do not include recent studies out of Europe showing little to no serotype replacement

Have you looked at the actual data from Europe?
There is only one country where NTHi isn't on the rise and Hib vaccine is in use.

also talk about Hia and Hif (and other subtypes) as if they are equal in invasiveness and outcomes to hib:

http://www.floridadiseasecontrol.net...9EpiUpdate.pdf

NTHi represented the majority (77%)
of typed H. influenzae infections during the same time period in Florida. This unencapsulated
form of the bacteria also accounted for the majority of fatal cases (86%) and had the highest
case fatality rate (14%).

Meningitis is not the only way a bacteria can kill a person.

[mamakay]

I would love to have a conversation with you on the European data, Carrie.
Ok. Here's the raw data:

http://www.euibis.org/documents/2006_hib.pdf

Look at table 4. Watch the "overall incidence" line. See how it doesn't vary much over time? Just a slow, small increase over time?
Now look at figure 4.


Look at figures 6 and 10. Compare and contrast.
Do you see anything?
Also, notice the spikes in both figures in 2002? That might be a coincidence, but I don't think so.

[carriebft]

http://www.biomedcentral.com/1471-2334/9/45/#B14

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/1...,f1000m,isrctn

http://iai.asm.org/cgi/content/full/75/6/2650

Those are just a few papers that demonstrate how Inside Vaccines is cherry picking.

Also you see that they take phrases from studies that say things like "hia now accounts for X% of all Hi meningitis cases" when that is obviously going to be the case when you knock out the #1.

So if prevaccine there were 100 hib cases and 10 hia cases causing meningitis with a total meningitis due to Hi number of 120. If post vaccine you have 0 hib, still 10 hia and 20 total cases...well...I think you get the point. This is the case in the second paper I linked.


Again, I am not saying they are totally wrong; I am saying they are cherry picking and not giving the whole picture. The third link is one I feel gives more of the truth of the matter (though it is earlier than the germany paper and also a fwe other papers looking at those minority populations most susceptible to hia- see second paper- so it doesn't include that information) but it still gives a more com plete picture. It also mentions pretty steady rates in USA despite vaccine use.

ETA: on the point of "other ways to kill a person"- obviously this is true. But agreeing with you on this point does not mean I agree that hia and hib are equal in virulence.

[Deborah]

Let me get this straight, Carrie.

You are admitting that the European numbers MK presents are correct and that other flavors of bugs are causing more cases of meningitis, including fatal meningitis.

So that part wasn't cherry picking.

What you are saying is that it isn't quite as bad as it might be? And that in the U.S. the other bugs aren't causing as much meningitis as in Europe?

What about the problems of Prevnar and staph?

[carriebft]

No, that is not what I am saying. But like I said told mamakay via PM, I have overstepped my personal boundaries here and got myself into a debate that I didn't want to get into (totally my own fault.) I just wanted to get that counter information out there. I put up a few links that I think speak well to my thoughts and have a couple more here and that's all I will say on this:

http://www.cdc.gov/eid/content/14/1/...?s_cid=eid48_e
(hia main cause of problems in certain populations, but no major increase seen-- simply now the leading cause b/c you knocked out #1)

My comments here pertain to Hib and other strains; you should read nothing I say here as pertaining to Pneumococcal.

[mamakay]

Originally Posted by carriebft

http://www.biomedcentral.com/1471-2334/9/45/#B14

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/1...,f1000m,isrctn

http://iai.asm.org/cgi/content/full/75/6/2650

Those are just a few papers that demonstrate how Inside Vaccines is cherry picking.

Also you see that they take phrases from studies that say things like "hia now accounts for X% of all Hi meningitis cases" when that is obviously going to be the case when you knock out the #1.

So if prevaccine there were 100 hib cases and 10 hia cases causing meningitis with a total meningitis due to Hi number of 120. If post vaccine you have 0 hib, still 10 hia and 20 total cases...well...I think you get the point. This is the case in the second paper I linked.


Again, I am not saying they are totally wrong; I am saying they are cherry picking and not giving the whole picture. The third link is one I feel gives more of the truth of the matter (though it is earlier than the germany paper and also a fwe other papers looking at those minority populations most susceptible to hia- see second paper- so it doesn't include that information) but it still gives a more com plete picture. It also mentions pretty steady rates in USA despite vaccine use.

ETA: on the point of "other ways to kill a person"- obviously this is true. But agreeing with you on this point does not mean I agree that hia and hib are equal in virulence.

It's NTHi that primarily replaces Hib. The only reference you linked to that addresses that one is the first, and in Germany, Half their isolates are were still Hib, and they only looked at children under 10. Replacement only is observed when "herd immunity" to Hib kicks in and you look at invasive disease across the whole population.
But even there, look at the numbers here:
http://www.biomedcentral.com/1471-2334/9/45/figure/F1
In years where fewer type B isolates were recovered, there were more (absolute, not relative) NTHi (aka, unencapsulated) strains recovered, and visa versa.

This is evidence for, not against, replacement.

[mamakay]

Originally Posted by carriebft

I just wanted to get that counter information out there. I put up a few links that I think speak well to my thoughts and have a couple more here and that's all I will say on this:

http://www.cdc.gov/eid/content/14/1/...?s_cid=eid48_e
(hia main cause of problems in certain populations, but no major increase seen-- simply now the leading cause b/c you knocked out #1)

My comments here pertain to Hib and other strains; you should read nothing I say here as pertaining to Pneumococcal.

It's not about Hia, it's about NTHi.

[mamakay]

Also you see that they take phrases from studies that say things like "hia now accounts for X% of all Hi meningitis cases" when that is obviously going to be the case when you knock out the #1.

So if prevaccine there were 100 hib cases and 10 hia cases causing meningitis with a total meningitis due to Hi number of 120. If post vaccine you have 0 hib, still 10 hia and 20 total cases...well...I think you get the point. This is the case in the second paper I linked.

No, the increase is absolute, not just relative. Can you find a single example in the Sisyphus series where a relative increase is quoted as though it's an absolute increase, or are all the references actually about absolute increases?

[caned & able]

This may not completely answer all of the questions, but as far as the herd theory is concerned, we are not cows.

There is no science in the herd theory of vaccines. It is based on a cattleman's observation of the behavior of cows translated to the supposed protection of vaccines. No scientific studies here, just an analogy.

[mamakay]

Originally Posted by caned & able

There is no science in the herd theory of vaccines. It is based on a cattleman's observation of the behavior of cows translated to the supposed protection of vaccines. No scientific studies here, just an analogy.

There is absolutely no evidence that herd immunity isn't a real phenomenon. ALL the evidence indicates that it is. Even minute elements of "how it works" have been elucidated and demonstrated repeatedly.

[mamakay]

Can you clear your PM box, carrie?

[Deborah]

Carrie, thanks for the explanation of how you are feeling about getting into a debate.

[Deborah]

I think that herd immunity is a reality and that there are a few vaccines which actually create something sort of like natural herd immunity. But they all come with problems.

An example--
Natural herd immunity with measles:
Almost all children catch measles during childhood. Depending on living conditions it can range from a very dangerous to a very mild illness. Everyone who survives measles has lifelong immunity, hence measles in adults is very rare and measles in newborns is also very rare.

Herd immunity with vaccines:
When enough children are vaccinated circulation of measles is interrupted and the illness becomes uncommon. If measles were actually to be totally eliminated from the world, things might be okay. If it is not, we have an ongoing risk of measles outbreaks, with the major danger being to adults whose immunity from the vaccine has worn off and to infants, who have no protection because their mothers didn't have measles as children. Sort of herd immunity with caveats.

There are vaccines which interrupt circulation of the illness, like the measles vaccine and there are vaccines which do not, like the pertussis vaccine. What I find maddening is the claims, commonly made, that with enough vaccination pertussis will go away.

[caned & able]

I pointed out the fact that measles immunity wears off within 8-10 years to a comrade who is very much in favor of vaxes and I never got an answer; supposedly this is a major concern for the next 30 years since the same vaccine, with rubella, wears off also and entire generations of young women of childbearing age no longer have natural adult immunity to rubella and this can create havoc with the pregnant population.

Also, doctors do not typically get their boosters since they know it can cause arthritis.