I have a few problems with your numbers, heathergirl67.
|30,000 cases of brain involvement, including aeseptic meningitis on average
I use a quote from the CDC's The Pink Book to clarify this:http://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/pubs/pin...oads/mumps.pdf
"Central nervous system (CNS) involvement in the form of aseptic meningitis (inflammatory cells in cerebrospinal fluid) is common, occurring asymptomatically in 50% to 60% of patients
. Symptomatic meningitis (headache, stiff neck) occurs in up to 15% of patients and resolves without sequelae in 3 to 10 days
. Encephalitis is rare (less than 2 per 100,000 mumps cases)."
|100 cases of permanent deafness on average
Hearing loss is stated as 1 in 20,000 cases by the CDC in The Pink Book. If there were 200,000 cases per year pre-vaccine, how were there 100 cases of deafness? According to my calculator 200,000 / 20,000 = 10, not 100.
|Considering the population increase, if people were still infected with mumps at the same rate we would have...
Why are you assuming that the complication and death rate would remain the same as it was in the mid-1960s?
200,000 cases per year / 30 deaths = a death rate of 1 in 6,666.
Compare that to this study, which found 0 deaths in almost 90,000 cases in Poland in the year 2003:http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/16190522
So in reality, every year pre-vaccine we had:
- 200,000 cases reported
- Up to 4 cases of encephalitis
- 30,000 cases of symptomatic aseptic meningitis in the form of a stiff neck and headache, with no long-term sequelae
- 10 cases of permanent deafness
- 20-30 deaths
Nowhere near the numbers of combined morbidity and mortality your website claimed.