Vax info or atleast selective vax resources? - Page 3

[mamakay]

So, otto and mgg...

Can we all agree that this can be dumped in the "myth" bucket?

http://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/vac-gen/whatifstop.htm

As many as three of every 1,000 persons with measles will die in the U.S.

[carriebft]

The first 20 weeks of the 1989 measles epidemic here had a case fatality rate of 1.5 per 1000 not including the many children who came down with SSPE from that in the 90s. The next set of weeks, the fatality rate rose. It ended up somewhere around 2.4.

Are you saying there were another 50,000 cases not recorded or 100,000 cases not recorded? I just don't see where that evidence comes from.

In Germany 1999 and 2006, where is the evidence that there were tens of thousands of unrecorded cases to bring the CFR to 1 in 10,000?

Also, in 1989, there is quite a bit of testing at the schools where outbreaks occurred. They were closely monitoring and testing anyone with any symptoms...I've seen reports from various states like this. How likely is it that these systems failed in finding 50% of the cases? I just highly doubt it and one study really isn't going to convince me that measles recording systems in outbreaks after high vaccine usage era are missing 50% or more of the cases.

edited to reword:

What I am having a hard time seeing evidence for is that in Germany in 2006, for example, there were 10 of thousands of unreported cases-- a number sufficient to get the case fatality rate to 1 in 10,000. There would have had to be about 30,000 or more- I didn't do the math here- unreported cases in a country of high surveillence and vaccination rate (not an ideal rate, but still high). Do you have evidence of this?


Also this line from the SSPE study previously linked:

The estimated risk of developing SSPE was 10-fold higher than the previous estimate reported for the United States in 1982.

I would think that would attribute to under-reported measles deaths, as Otto mentioned.

[carriebft]

And the line is "as many as three" which means up to 3 per 1000 could die, and that could very well be the case if we look at these outbreaks and the death numbers. 1, 2 or 3 per 1000 have died in other outbreaks. It could be less. it could be more. "as many as three" does not seem to be a "myth" phrase to me. It makes sense.

[mamakay]

Are you saying there were another 50,000 cases not recorded or 100,000 cases not recorded? I just don't see where that evidence comes from.

Did you read that paper on completeness of reporting in the US?
Also, we know only a fraction of the cases prevaccine got reported. The evidence (and it's really, really strong evidence) is the seroepidemiology. I know this is American data, but I'm not aware of any European data that explores completeness of reporting of measles cases, so this is the best evidence that exists.

Do you have any criticism of the research upon which mass measles vaccination in the US and UK was launched? How could there have been a significant degree of under-reporting of deaths in either the US or UK research?

Also, there's a fairly obvious reason for the difference between the US 1/10,000 rate and the UK 1/5000 rate. Which one is more likely to be correct?

[mamakay]

Originally Posted by carriebft

And the line is "as many as three" which means up to 3 per 1000 could die, and that could very well be the case if we look at these outbreaks and the death numbers. 1, 2 or 3 per 1000 have died in other outbreaks. It could be less. it could be more. "as many as three" does not seem to be a "myth" phrase to me. It makes sense.

"As many as" seems to be deceptive "weasle words" to me. It's not actually true that maybe 3.3 in 1,000 measles cases die in the US. The study that number came from made NO effort to correct for mild, unreported cases, and unless you're going to argure that mild unreported cases (and a vast majority of cases in the US fit that description) don't exist...it's deeply flawed.
Even the authors of that study didn't pretend like the reported CFR was reflective of the reality.