Quote:
Originally Posted by serendipity22 
Perhaps if all 3 trials had been completed,they would have had different outcomes.
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I'm no statistician, but as I understand it from a couple of friends (one an actuary, one an MPH),
the data were converging when the trials were stopped. That is to say, after the head start that the intact group apparently had, over time the duration that each group was in the trial would become relatively closer. Another way to look at it is, there was no statistical difference between the two groups
within a comparable time period. If the trials had gone to completion, the results would have been statistically insignificant -- a dead heat. In fact, that is what previous trials had demonstrated, and what the Royal Dutch Medical Association alluded to.
But ultimately,
Crunchy Frog's point is correct. It should be moot. The researchers themselves, along with the WHO and UNAIDS folks now in charge of the Ramp-Up in Africa, have always stressed (and continue to stress) that circumcision as an intervention is appropriate only where certain criteria are met:
1. HIV rates are high (i.e., over 5% of the adult population) and
2. Adult circumcision is not widespread already
This would appear to rule out circumcision as an epidemiological intervention in the developed world on the first count, and in North America and Australia on both counts.
Yet it seems that numerous pro-circumcision, US-based epidemiologists and doctors have somehow taken the ball and run with it, failing to understand there's no game being played.
Good grief, I even had Robert Bailey PhD, designer and co-principal investigator of the Kenya RCT, tell me to my face 32 days ago that it would be "crazy" for a US parent to circumcise their infant primarily out of future concern about HIV. He could think of lots of other good reasons (he's a huge circumcision fan), but AIDS definitely was not one of them. I made that point the next day to the 2 CDC epidemiology officers I spoke to for 45 minutes, and they seemed extremely surprised. I hope it sank it.
Personally, I think what is happening in Africa is fraudulent and disgraceful, but it would only compound the tragedy to try to apply it outside that region.