In just the past two weeks, we've had the following happen:
- Alternator went out on my "reliable" older van
- The flashing on the roof was blown up by severe winds and needed to be fixed (under deductible, so no insurance coverage)
- The ignitor switch on our gas furnace needed replaced
- We had a pipe burst in the basement that had to be fixed.
My mom was also in the hospital (she lives with us) and I was eating there every lunch for a week, had to spend a lot of money on new equipment for her at home, and used a lot of gas traveling back and forth to the hospital multiple times a day.
I agree with the pp, you also have many things left out of your budget (one not mentioned is just general spending money that isn't included... grabbing a soda or coffee, a snack while out, etc.). If you can fill those holes in the budget and have a couple of weeks like we've had without putting yourself in debt, then you can afford it. If not, you can't afford it. I commend you for having the 20% down, but these days, it's just not enough.
I will also do my usual PSA to say that if you are getting back that kind of refund, you need to change your withholdings so you are not giving the government a free loan. You need to be getting that money yourself every paycheck instead.
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