There are a lot more factors than those listed in the standards for ecological breastfeeding that affect the return of fertility, and some of the standards are a little bit vague, beginning with feeding "on demand," for most breastfeeding experts warn us that if we wait until the baby "demands it," we've waited too long, that crying is a late indicator of hunger, and when you read Sheila Kippley's books, she emphasizes that non-nutritive sucking is very important for delaying the return of fertility and gives examples of traditional cultures who nursed multiple times in an hour. Factors such as genetics, BMI, milk volume, length of feedings, time between feedings, total time feeding in a 24 hour period, intensity of suck, time between birth and first feeding, mother's return to employment, medications, cigarettes, frequency of night feedings, and many other factors can have an effect on the return of fertility. Not all the factors are really fully understood, how 2 mothers with similar body types and breastfeeding practices can experience a return to fertility over a year apart. The Couple to Couple League estimates that a woman's own previous experience with the return to fertility is the best predictor for the return to fertility the next time, given similar breastfeeding practices. They also note that usually, a woman who is exclusively breastfeeding will experience mucus patches for approximately 2 months before the return of fertility, however, this is not always the case.
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However, statistically, ecological breastfeeding is very effective in delaying the return of fertility. It is important to note that there are outliers. There are outliers whose fertility returns quite early, and there are outliers whose fertility returns quite late. I have a friend who has a 4 year old, and last I checked (a few months ago), she had not returned to menstruation, even though she wouldn't count as "ecological breastfeeding" anymore since she goes places without her child, though it was a very slow and natural progression. You're always playing with statistics, and somebody has to be in that 1%. Overall, though, most women experience a significant period of amenorrhea with ecological breastfeeding, and ecological breastfeeding provides a number of benefits to both mother and child, even if there is an early return of menstruation.
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It is also important to note that even if there is an early return to menstruation, it is even more unusual that a woman would get pregnant before the first early menstruation. About 1/3 of women (regardless of type of breastfeeding) will not ovulate before their first menstruation-like bleed (even more will have spotting before menstruation). Approximately another 1/3 will ovulate but have an inadequate LP, and the last 1/3 or so will have fertile cycles the first time, but with random intercourse, they will only have about a 25% chance of getting pregnant. This matches nicely with the Kippleys' estimate that you have a 6% chance of ending up pregnant before your first postpartum period. These statistics are slightly misleading, though, since the sooner fertility returns, the more likely you are to be in the first or second third, and the later your fertility returns, the more likely you are to be fertile. Also, many women experience a sudden increase in libido around the time of their first postpartum ovulation, which could increase the likelihood of getting pregnant. Various studies have estimated that 5-10% of breastfeeding women (again, regardless of type of breastfeeding, so the statistics could be somewhat different than for ecological breastfeeding) will get pregnant before their first postpartum period.
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I personally have met (either online or in person) many people who have discussed their breastfeeding and fertility. I have met a handful of women who have had a very early return to menstruation while practicing ecological breastfeeding, between 8 weeks and 6 months, and despite the fact that they will all tell me about how ineffective ecological breastfeeding was for them, not one of them ended up pregnant from before that first period, though a couple got pregnant very shortly thereafter. The only woman I know who got pregnant at 3 months, before her first postpartum period, was not breastfeeding ecologically (did not even qualify for LAM), and was also using hormonal contraception. I have, however, met several ecological (or similar) breastfeeding moms who got pregnant before their first postpartum period around 9 months or longer postpartum. For some reason, most LLL leaders that I know (The LLL philosophy is not ecological breastfeeding, but it meshes quite well with it to the point that many people who get really involved with the LLL do ecological breastfeeding or something very similar without even knowing it) got their periods back around 1 year. Additionally, if you spend any time in the trying to conceive forum, you'll find lots of people who have done ecological breastfeeding or something similar and are ready to have another child but don't have their period back yet or are still dealing with inadequate LP's.
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I would be very careful about declaring for another mother what is effective enough for her own situation. I absolutely love ecological breastfeeding and think that it is an excellent way of life for mother and child, and for me, it (almost entirely alone) gave me almost 3 year spacing between my children, certainly plenty for my situation. In encouraging ecological breastfeeding, though, I think it is important to let mothers make their own assessments of how likely their fertility is to return, how important it is to delay another pregnancy at that time, and whether to depend to ecological breastfeeding alone or combine it with other methods of charting, etc. Ecological breastfeeding is certainly not "nothing." It is a quite reasonably effective method of parenting and family planning and can be combined with traditional systematic NFP charting for even greater effectiveness. If there is a serious need to postpone another pregnancy, I wouldn't ignore any obvious signs that fertility is returning, but I wouldn't discourage a mother from relying on ecological breastfeeding alone if that is what she feels is adequate. Personally, I was absolutely dry almost every single day until my daughter was over 18 months old. I wouldn't have ignored fertility signs earlier if they came surprisingly early (We abstained, and I charted for a while after my surprise spotting at just over 4 months), but there was no need for me to obsessively take my temperature and chart a nice "D" on my chart day after day for a year and a half. That is an entire 14 page book of charts wasted with nothing happening! Charting is for when something is happening, not for when it is so obviously not, and using withdrawl or any other contraception is against my religious beliefs and distasteful in my opinion. There's no way I would want to go an entire year and a half without completing a sexual act with my own husband.
