Temp shift 3 days after Peak day?

[blessedwith7]

For all you experienced charters, is this possible?

Last day of ew (lots of it) on the 25th, dry since, temp today (the 28th) is two-tenths above highest in this cycle.  I know time will tell if my temps continue to stay on the rise but I was curious about the temp shifting 3 days after Peak cm day.  Is that common enough or rare?

Thanks!

[JMJ]

I'm guessing you've got more information by now since this post is a few days old, but yes, it can happen.  Studies indicate that ovulation can and does often happen on Peak day +/- 3 days.  It is rare but not impossible for ovulation to happen outside of that range.  There is less information on how close or far temp rise can occur from ovulation, but the estimates I have seen are that it can be within about 3 days of temp rise.  I know that ovulation has been recorded slightly before or after temp rise, and there is good evidence that pregnancies can occur on the second day of temp rise but are very unlikely to occur on the 3rd day of temp rise.  This is the reason why cross-checking symptoms makes NFP more effective and why NFP International has several post-ovulation rules based on different lengths of dry-ups and different strengths of temp rise.  My biggest criticism of TCOYF is that it doesn't explain this very well and leads to people thinking that they can pinpoint ovulation to an exact day.  We can often pinpoint a most likely day, but we're talking about probabilities, not proof.  The only way to prove when you ovulated is through ultrasound.  If your temp stayed up, it's likely that you ovulated sometime between Peak day and the start of your temp rise.

[blessedwith7]

Thank you for your reply.  This is only my second cycle charting and I was so confused about the temps this time that I input my info into Fertility Friend and that site placed my ovulation day on peak day.  3 of my previous 6 day temps were above the coverline so I never would have figured that on my own.  Anyhow, my first luteal phase postpartum was 10 days and tomorrow will be my supposed 10dpo for this cycle.  If you looked at my chart you would laugh because it looks like a TTC; Fertility Friend has my pregnancy chances as good right now!  It's all in God's hands and I'm peaceful with either way.  If there is no pregnancy I'm hoping my next cycles will be a little more clear.  I have stopped breastfeeding my almost 14mo old completely for nights and weaned her down to 4 times during the day.  I'll keep it that way for the time being.

Thanks again for your time and have a blessed 2012!

[JMJ]

If you like, I'd be happy to take a look at your chart, and if you turn out not to be pregnant and still want to CTA, there is a CTA thread that you might consider joining in this forum.  A lot of people have the same questions.  In fact, I just linked to my response in this thread because another woman there just had your same question.

[blessedwith7]

Sure, it would be nice to see what you think of my chart.  Not sure how to share it...

Out of curiosity I changed the settings on my chart to see how differently it would be analyzed.  On the fam setting it stated that there was no definite time of ovulation, sometime between day 10 and 21, no coverline.  On the research setting it placed my o day two or three days (can't remember) later so I don't feel sure anymore about how many dpo I am.  No sign of af yet except 2 super grouchy days.  I did take a pg test this morning, still negative at this point which is no surprise since I haven't had any signs in that way yet either.  I wish I was more patient!

[JMJ]

I don't personally use FF, but I believe there is a link on your chart screen entitled "Share" or something to that effect, and that if you click, there is a link you can copy and paste.

[blessedwith7]

Let's give this a try:

[url=http://www.fertilityfriend.com/home/3a0ef0]My Ovulation Chart[/url]

Let me know if you can't view it.  One thing that I'm not sure you will see is that my temp time varied quite a bit in the first half of the cycle plus I was getting up with littles and such so not always getting my 3 consecutive hours; hence the temp pattern I couldn't decipher on my own.

Thanks!

[JMJ]

I had to cut off a couple of letters off the end, but I got it.  I see what you mean.  It's tough when you've got so many disturbed temperatures.  Let's start by looking at CM because it looks like you've got a pretty good pattern there.  Your peak day is pretty obviously CD 16 with your fertile window beginning no later than CD 10.  Based on CM-only rules, your post-ovulation infertility would begin on the evening of CD 20 (P+4), and given that your temperature appears to be rising somewhat by that time, if I didn't have a need to be extra conservative, I would probably just use the CM-only rule or use it but add an extra day or two just because temps are confusing  Basically though, your fertile window would be about CD 10-20, and any intercourse between about CD 12-17 would be pretty likely to result in conception.

As far as temps go, for family planning purposes, we're going to mainly look at the ones that are not disturbed (closed circles), so ignore the open circles for a second.  If we draw a low-temperature level at 97.9, which is pretty conservative since we're not shaving any temps due to so many disturbed temps, then we get a temperature rise beginning sometime after CD 18 and before CD 22.  When you include the disturbed temperatures, it appears that you have a temp rise starting around CD 19, but it's hard to pinpoint because so many of the temperatures are off.  As I said in my first post, it wouldn't be that strange for a temp rise to begin a few days after peak day, and I would guess that you ovulated around CD 17 or 18 based on this sympto-thermal chart.

If you wanted to wait for a sympto-thermal rule for determining post-ovulation infertility, you really have to ignore all the disturbed temperatures.  If you are using the cover line method, you would draw your cover line at 98.0, and then you're looking for 3 undisturbed temperatures over it in a row, and you don't get that until CD 26 only because that is the soonest that you have 3 undisturbed temperatures in a row.  If you're looking at low and high temperature lines, you would draw your LTL at 97.9 and your HTL at 98.3, and I would feel very comfortable considering you infertile on CD 25 because you have 3 consecutive undisturbed temperatures (on non-consecutive days) at or above the HTL, and coupled with it being so far past peak day, I just can't see any way pregnancy would be possible after then.

[blessedwith7]

I can't believe it but I have another question!!  I now have two dropped temps but no af.  Last time (the only other time I charted) I only took temps for the first part of the lp and then I only had 10dpo.  Do some women have more than a day of dropped temps before af or can a pregnant woman have dropped temps at my point in the cycle.  I haven't had any spotting at all.  I keep thinking I might be cramping but nothing certain. 

Thanks for all your help and looking at my chart!  I truly hope that if I am not pregnant my next cycle isn't so confusing to me!  :-)

[JMJ]

Usually, your temp drops the day your period starts, but it can be a little before or after, though after is more common.  Usually, the drop in progesterone that causes the temperature drop also causes bleeding.  I'm wondering, though, both of those temperatures are marked as "disturbed."  What made them disturbed.  Could they have been disturbed enough that they would be so much lower?  For example, did you take your temp a whole lot earlier than normal those days?

[blessedwith7]

The lower temps were signalling the start of my period.  Cramps picked up yesterday afternoon and I started bleeding.  I don't know why FF marked those as disturbed.  They were a little bit early but not much; 6:15 and 6:45.  My wake up time varies from 6-8 but is usually close to 7 excepting Sunday which is always earlier.  I really appreciate your help with figuring out this cycle.  I'm glad to see this one go.  It definitely wasn't God's will for us to have another little one right now as we did not abstain during the fertile phase.  I was too stressed and anxious about it and that is not how I want a pregnancy to start.  If we can make it I would be happy to tta till the end of this summer.  It's much harder than I thought though!

Take care and God bless!