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Formal Debate Thread: Vaccinated children are more likely to have autism than unvaccinated children. - Page 5  

post #81 of 126

For some reason, I am unable to edit my posts, so I will add here from the DSM (sorry for typo in about post):

 

 

 

Quote:
The disturbance is not better accounted for by Rett's Disorder or Childhood Disintegrative Disorder

 

post #82 of 126
Quote:
Originally Posted by kathymuggle View Post

 

Huh.  I am seeking clarity here.  You lost me at the last sentence.

 

Do you think vaccines can spur on autism - or do you think vaccine injury mimics autism?

 

I agree with the rest of your post, and I agree that autism is diagnosed through behaviours.  There is no blood test for it.  There are some physical issues many autistic people have - here is a link:

 

http://autism.lovetoknow.com/Physical_Characteristics_of_Autism

 

Good question. Given that Autism is a collection of behaviors, according to the DSM, and vaccine-injured "Autistic" children seem to have a multitude of physiological problems, it would seem that they have a medical condition, which would mean it can't be called Autism. I am thinking aloud here. I honestly don't know. How can it be a only mental condition with some many co-morbid symptoms? 

post #83 of 126
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by AdinaL View Post

This is a very interesting conversation.  

 

Please remember though we are looking for verifiable research, stats, info, etc.  Not just gut feelings and opinions.  So you have an opinion, start digging, research it - find something to back it up.  Exercise that mad Google-fu I know you all have. :)

I am going to reiterate this.  Opinion and gut feeling are well and good, but on this thread, you need to back it up with something.

 

I think we are getting off topic as well.  Defining how Autism is diagnosed is fine, but the topic needs to be back on whether or not vaccinated children are more likely to have autism (diagnosed) than unvaccinated children.

 

Please get back on topic.

post #84 of 126

It's difficult to really address this issue without knowing the proposed mechanism of vaccines increasing the rate of autism.  Traditionally it's been MMR or thimerosal, more lately the pathogen load thing, but inevitably when one of those in particular is addressed someone claims that's not really the concern.

Anyway, if vaccines raise the rates of autism, maybe countries with fewer vaccines have lower rates of Autism?  Some of the countries with the lowest number of vaccines for infants are Norway, Sweden, and Japan.  Sweden and Japan only give 12 shots to infants.  All three of these countries, however, have an autism rate not significantly different from ours.

 

Norway: http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2011/02/110228090611.htm

Japan: http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn7076-autism-rises-despite-mmr-ban-in-japan.html

Sweden: http://autismjabberwocky.blogspot.com/2011/11/autism-prevalence-in-gothenburg-sweden.html

 

Studies show the same is true for Britain.  There's also scientific evidence that even when vaccinations are delayed the age of onset of autism is the same.

post #85 of 126
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rrrrrachel View Post

It's difficult to really address this issue without knowing the proposed mechanism of vaccines increasing the rate of autism.  Traditionally it's been MMR or thimerosal, more lately the pathogen load thing, but inevitably when one of those in particular is addressed someone claims that's not really the concern.

Anyway, if vaccines raise the rates of autism, maybe countries with fewer vaccines have lower rates of Autism?  Some of the countries with the lowest number of vaccines for infants are Norway, Sweden, and Japan.  Sweden and Japan only give 12 shots to infants.  All three of these countries, however, have an autism rate not significantly different from ours.

 

Norway: http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2011/02/110228090611.htm

Japan: http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn7076-autism-rises-despite-mmr-ban-in-japan.html

Sweden: http://autismjabberwocky.blogspot.com/2011/11/autism-prevalence-in-gothenburg-sweden.html

 

Studies show the same is true for Britain.  There's also scientific evidence that even when vaccinations are delayed the age of onset of autism is the same.

There are many possible mechanisms for vaccines increasing the rate of autism. Every time one is mentioned, someone claims that the goalposts are shifted.  That claim is, unfortunately, just a red herring. " The scientific reality is that the only thing Honda/Rutter teaches us is that MMR vaccine cannot be the only vaccine to cause autistic spectrum disorders – and not that it is not a cause of autism."--http://childhealthsafety.wordpress.com/2009/06/03/japvaxautism/

 

 

The idea that studies of autism in Japan and Britain show no relation to vaccines is thoroughly debunked here:

http://childhealthsafety.wordpress.com/2009/06/03/japvaxautism/

 

 

The number of Japanese children developing autism rose and fell in direct proportion to the number of children vaccinated each year:-

 

080603_terada_graph
 
 

Information from formal peer reviewed papers including data from the UK’s General Practice Research Database shows that with each major change in the UK childhood vaccination programme the rates of childhood autism have increased significantly.

 

[Article updated 27 April 2010 to include British data]

 
post #86 of 126
That's a really funny way to interpret those studies and data.
post #87 of 126

from 2009

http://www.rescuepost.com/files/gr-autism_and_vaccines_world_special_report1.pdf

 

Prevalence data on autism from other countries is limited. For purposes of this report, only journal- published prevalence data was used. Below, in Table 3, the United States current autism prevalence is compared to certain other countries that met the following criteria: materially lower levels of mandated vaccines and published autism prevalence data. For comparison purposes, the prevalence figures are also expressed as a multiplier of the U.S. autism rate. For example, if a country has an autism rate of 1 in 2,000, than the U.S. rate is 13-times greater, expressed as 13x.

 

Norway: 13 vaccines by the age of 5.  autism rate: 1 in 2000  13.3x

Sweden: 11 vaccines by the age of 5.  autism rate: 1 in 862   5.7x

US:         35 vaccines by the age of 5.  autism rate: 1 in 150

**********************************************

I have not seen any journal-published prevalence data that suggests that the autism rate in Norway has gone from 1/2000 in 2009  to 1/88 by 2012, nor that the autism rate in Sweden has gone from 1/862 in 2009 to 1/88 by 2012.

 

 

post #88 of 126
I guess you didn't read the links I posted, then.
post #89 of 126

http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/15287394.2011.590097

 

This study shows that a subset of people  have a much higher rate of autism than the rest of society.  The subset is grandchildren of those who had "pink disease" (which affected 1/500 exposed children)- which was caused by a sensitivity to mercury.  

 

 

"The results showed the prevalence rate of ASD among the grandchildren of pink disease survivors (1 in 25) to be significantly higher than the comparable general population prevalence rate (1 in 160). The results support the hypothesis that Hg sensitivity may be a heritable/genetic risk factor for ASD."


Edited by purslaine - 6/28/12 at 5:59am
post #90 of 126
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rrrrrachel View Post

I guess you didn't read the links I posted, then.

The link you posted does not suggest anything about the autism rate in Sweden, only about the rate in Gothenburg. That particular study was apparently the subject of a critique, "Screening For Low-Prevalence Conditions Is Problematic; Examples From The Gothenburg Study," but I can't view that paper. Hopefully someone has access to it and can post the abstract and conclusion.

The link you chose for Norway is to a study whose author insists that there has been no increase in autism prevalence there:

"Our conclusion is that the rise in ASD can be explained mainly by the use of more thorough mapping methods and, consequently, that we are not seeing the emergence of an autism epidemic.

Researchers involved in the "Barn i Bergen" project got widely varying results when they used different methods to investigate the same group of children. The first sub-study concluded that 0.44 per cent of the children had ASD, whereas the result a few years later was 0.87 per cent.

According to Ms Posserud, the reason for the difference is that the researchers conducted a more extensive survey in the last sub-study, which included a comprehensive clinical test in addition to a questionnaire and interviews with the children's parents."

This is certainly not in agreement with UC Davis MIND Institute, who concluded that better diagnosis could not account for the drastic increase in autism in the US, and that environmental factors are responsible. Since diagnostic criteria has not changed in the US in the last decade, but the rate has changed from 1/150 to 1/88, that does make it clear that better diagnos cannot explain the increase.
post #91 of 126
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rrrrrachel View Post

That's a really funny way to interpret those studies and data.


I finally got a chance to look at the links you had provided and I did not studies or data provided in two of them. The Japanese article clearly states they included children diagnosed up to (if I recall correctly) age 7, so there could easily be the continuation of finding those with autism after the MMR was stopped.
Also, I agree that one vaccine is not necessarily the only problem. What else was going on vaccine-wise at that time?
post #92 of 126
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rrrrrachel View Post

It's difficult to really address this issue without knowing the proposed mechanism of vaccines increasing the rate of autism.  Traditionally it's been MMR or thimerosal, more lately the pathogen load thing, but inevitably when one of those in particular is addressed someone claims that's not really the concern.

Anyway, if vaccines raise the rates of autism, maybe countries with fewer vaccines have lower rates of Autism?  Some of the countries with the lowest number of vaccines for infants are Norway, Sweden, and Japan.  Sweden and Japan only give 12 shots to infants.  All three of these countries, however, have an autism rate not significantly different from ours.

 

Norway: http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2011/02/110228090611.htm

This article simply state the real rates of autism have not risen - but that the higher rate of autism is due to better diagnosis.  Lots of people disagree with this  (Autism Speaks is one).  I must say, and this is my opinion, that I do not buy that the real autism rates have not risen for one minute.  It does not mesh with what I have seen in real life at all.  Moreover, I suspect the vaccine community would really like it if people bought the "there is no real increase in autism" line.  It would silence all those pesky people wandering around wondering what environmental factors (including, possibly, vaccines) lead to autism and questioning things.

 

 

Japan: http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn7076-autism-rises-despite-mmr-ban-in-japan.html

This one compares MMR to those receiving single shots of M M and R, and finds no difference.   While this may help comfort people who thought it was the combination of shots that was/is an issue - it gives us no info on autism rates in vaxxed versus unvaxxed.

 

 

Sweden: http://autismjabberwocky.blogspot.com/2011/11/autism-prevalence-in-gothenburg-sweden.html

The high (0.8 %) rate reported in this article is probably due to screening all children at age 2.  I wonder what other countries ASD rate would look like if all children were screened for ASD at age 2.  Taxi posted other rate for Sweden upthread - and it said 1/862

 


Edited by purslaine - 6/28/12 at 12:31pm
post #93 of 126
Quote:
Originally Posted by Taximom5 View Post

from 2009

http://www.rescuepost.com/files/gr-autism_and_vaccines_world_special_report1.pdf

 

Prevalence data on autism from other countries is limited. For purposes of this report, only journal- published prevalence data was used. Below, in Table 3, the United States current autism prevalence is compared to certain other countries that met the following criteria: materially lower levels of mandated vaccines and published autism prevalence data. For comparison purposes, the prevalence figures are also expressed as a multiplier of the U.S. autism rate. For example, if a country has an autism rate of 1 in 2,000, than the U.S. rate is 13-times greater, expressed as 13x.

 

Norway: 13 vaccines by the age of 5.  autism rate: 1 in 2000  13.3x

Sweden: 11 vaccines by the age of 5.  autism rate: 1 in 862   5.7x

US:         35 vaccines by the age of 5.  autism rate: 1 in 150

**********************************************

I have not seen any journal-published prevalence data that suggests that the autism rate in Norway has gone from 1/2000 in 2009  to 1/88 by 2012, nor that the autism rate in Sweden has gone from 1/862 in 2009 to 1/88 by 2012.

 

 

 

Do these countries diagnose autism in the same way that we do?  I have heard Aspergers is what causes our rates to be high and that its place on the autism spectrum has been questioned in our country so I wonder if it has been removed from other countries classification and if that could be a possible cause for the different rates.  Are there any statistics on the rate of autism without including aspergers? 

post #94 of 126

Some in another thread (on the Researching board) just posted an article with a table of autism rates broken down by state. So it got me thinking about how the CDC publishes vaccination rates by state too. I know how to make plots, so.....

 

DATA: This site has a figure showing Autism rates by state for 8 years olds in 2009-2010 year (so born in Sept 2001-2002). I have not verified this data. 

http://vaxtruth.org/2012/04/when-1-in-88-is-really-1-in-29/

 

CDC has vaccination rate by state for children at 24 months, which this group would have been in Sept 2003-2004. I'll use the July 2003-June 2003 data as that's closest. That's here broken down by different vaccines.

http://www2a.cdc.gov/nip/coverage/nis/nis_iap.asp?fmt=v&rpt=tab09_24mo_iap_0304&qtr=Q3/2003-Q2/2004

 

METHOD: Make a plot of one of these against the other and see what happens. In the end the CDC breaks down by vaccine, so I picked MMR to make a plot (I could do more if people are interested, but right now I want to watch TV!). 

 

RESULT: A plot of MMR vaccination rate (in percentage) as a function of the fraction of children with autism. This is 8 year olds in 2009/2010, so I plotted the MMR rates for 2 year olds in 2003/2004. 

 

 

MMR Autism.png

 

 

I see no correlation. 

 

Minnesota and Maine with the two highest autism rates (1/67 and 1/80 respectively) have MMR vaccination rates among the lowest (88% and 89% respectively). While Mississippi with a vaccination rate of 96.5 has an autism rate among the lowest 1/317. 

 

Now I'm not going to use this to claim an anti-correlation, because you can find states with high vaccination rates and high autism rates (and low rates and low autism), but my point is this data shows absolutely no correlation. 

 

Also I noticed a BBC article this week about a possible brain scan for autism: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-18577327, giving hopes of early detection before the developmental disorders show themselves. Not really related, but I thought it might be of interest. 

 

post #95 of 126
Quote:
Originally Posted by prosciencemum View Post

 

 

MMR Autism.png

 

 

I see no correlation. 

 

Minnesota and Maine with the two highest autism rates (1/67 and 1/80 respectively) have MMR vaccination rates among the lowest (88% and 89% respectively). While Mississippi with a vaccination rate of 96.5 has an autism rate among the lowest 1/317. 

 

Now I'm not going to use this to claim an anti-correlation, because you can find states with high vaccination rates and high autism rates (and low rates and low autism), but my point is this data shows absolutely no correlation. 

 

Also I noticed a BBC article this week about a possible brain scan for autism: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-18577327, giving hopes of early detection before the developmental disorders show themselves. Not really related, but I thought it might be of interest. 

 

Prosciencemum, the subject of this debate is "Vaccinated children are more likely to have autism than unvaccinated children." 

 

You are only looking to see if only the uptake of ONE of the 35+ vaccines is correlated to the rate of autism. That is utterly irrelevant.  In order for that to be relevant, you would then have to compare children who received that ONE vaccine to children who received NO vaccines. 

 

 Your data does not show whether or not it's the vaccinated kids who are developing autism.

 

Let's say, hypothetically, that the MMR causes autism.  If a state has a low MMR uptake, but every single autistic child had gotten the MMR, and then had MMR-induced seizures and resulting autism, there would be absolutely no correlation between the MMR uptake and the autism rate.

 

I am NOT saying that the MMR causes all autism cases, nor that it is the sole causal factor in autism.

 

I'm just demonstrating that it's impossible to rule out an MMR/autism connection from looking at MMR uptake and autism rates.

post #96 of 126
Quote:
Originally Posted by One_Girl View Post

 

Do these countries diagnose autism in the same way that we do?  I have heard Aspergers is what causes our rates to be high and that its place on the autism spectrum has been questioned in our country so I wonder if it has been removed from other countries classification and if that could be a possible cause for the different rates.  Are there any statistics on the rate of autism without including aspergers? 

Those countries were looking for ASD--which stands for Autistic Spectrum Disorder, which currently includes Asperger's.

post #97 of 126
Re looking at he specific vaccine and autism: you have to start somewhere. Since no one seems willing to postulate what about vaccines allegedly causes autism, we're left with the historical arguments, which are mmr, thimerosal, and too many too soon. Addressing those is absolutely relevant, even if you don't consider it conclusive.
post #98 of 126
Here's a concise description of why the rate in Norway went from around .44 percent to twice that.

http://talismanacademy.crchealth.com/talisman-news/norwegian-scientists-say-the-autism-rate-is-high-but-likely-fixed-04153/
post #99 of 126
I thought this was interesting, forgive me for the borderline relevance.

"This is also a problem in the U.S. Data collected by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention shows the highest autism prevalence in states with the best autism health and support services, such as Arizona (121 cases per 10,000 people), Missouri (121) and New Jersey (106). In contrast, areas with fewer services have lower rates, such as Alabama (60), Arkansas (69) and Florida (42).

Over time, however, as more parents and clinicians become familiar with autism, prevalence goes up. In many parts of the world, including the U.S., U.K., Canada, Japan and Scandinavia, "The rates were flat through the late '80s, and then suddenly a massive rise happened at same time," Fombonne says. The rise is probably not due to a mysterious global environmental exposure, he says. "It's more likely to reflect new concepts of autism worldwide.""

http://sfari.org/news-and-opinion/news/2011/researchers-track-down-autism-rates-across-the-globe
post #100 of 126
I always think the WHO is reliable.

http://www.who.int/vaccine_safety/about/en/vaccine.pdf

They concluded that there is no evidence for a causal relationship between mmr and autism or asd.

They also found no evidence of toxicity from thimerosal containing vaccines and cite several studies showing the pharmacokinetic profile of ethyl mercury is substantially different (and safer) than that of methyl mercury.

The article is very well referenced if you'd like to consult the various studies.
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