Meningitis vaccine paralyzes 40 children in Chad? - Page 4

[Rrrrrachel]

And by "region" you mean "village."

[pek64]

Originally Posted by Rrrrrachel 

And by "region" you mean "village."

Your point??

[Rrrrrachel]

Accuracy.

[Mirzam]

Originally Posted by pek64 

Originally Posted by Rrrrrachel 

And by "region" you mean "village."

Your point??

This.

[eireann]

Originally Posted by Rrrrrachel 

Accuracy.

Semantics, because it temporarily derails the conversation regarding the real issue.

[prosciencemum]

Originally Posted by pek64 


40 in one week compared to 88 in three months. Divide the 88 by 12, the number of weeks in that 3month period, is 7.3.

So 40 compared to 7.3. How does that look?

That's really not how the maths would be done. It's 40 reactions in that week - did 40 happens every week? It seems not or we'd be hearing about them here I suspect. 

[prosciencemum]

There's a statement here http://www.meningvax.org/files/MVPstatement_10Jan2013_EN.pdf from the Menigitus Project about the news article. It says: 

 

Quote:

Ferney-Voltaire, 10 January 2013—The Meningitis Vaccine Project learned of the story published in the Chadian weekly La Voix regarding the MenAfriVac vaccine that was introduced in Gouro in December 2012. On behalf of our global partners, we wish to emphasize that we

take every MenAfriVac-related report very seriously. An investigation team is on the ground in Chad to explore what caused these statements. All available data point to the high safety and effectiveness of the vaccine. We believe that the investigation in Chad will shed light on the exact circumstances that caused the publication of the article in La Voix. We will make that information public as the scientific reports become available.

How reassuring that they are taking this report seriously, investigating it properly and plan to publicise the results once they have them. Just what I would hope would happen after reports of what looks like it could be a serious vaccine reaction. 

[rachelsmama]

Originally Posted by prosciencemum 

There's a statement here http://www.meningvax.org/files/MVPstatement_10Jan2013_EN.pdf from the Menigitus Project about the news article. It says: 

 

How reassuring that they are taking this report seriously, investigating it properly and plan to publicise the results once they have them. Just what I would hope would happen after reports of what looks like it could be a serious vaccine reaction. 

I'd be more reassured if they were investigating what happened to the paralysed kids, instead of what lead to the publication of the article.  Hopefully that was just a poor choice of words.

[Rrrrrachel]

Yeah, I took that as investigating what caused the circumstances of the article, aka the paralysis, just awkwardly worded.

[pek64]

Originally Posted by prosciencemum 

That's really not how the maths would be done. It's 40 reactions in that week - did 40 happens every week? It seems not or we'd be hearing about them here I suspect. 

Then what can be compared? The 40 paralyzed in a small region/village in Chad has already been compared to the number of vpd or meningitis deaths for the entire continent of Africa. It has been compared, by you, to the number of deaths in Chad for a three month period. OHHHH! It's acceptable to compare the forty to ANY number of deaths, as long as the number of deaths is greater, and makes the vaccine seem safe!!! Thanks for the info!

[pek64]

Originally Posted by prosciencemum 

There's a statement here http://www.meningvax.org/files/MVPstatement_10Jan2013_EN.pdf from the Menigitus Project about the news article. It says: 


 



How reassuring that they are taking this report seriously, investigating it properly and plan to publicise the results once they have them. Just what I would hope would happen after reports of what looks like it could be a serious vaccine reaction. 

In ten days, there's no additional information?

[pers]

Originally Posted by pek64 

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rrrrrachel 

And by "region" you mean "village."

 

Your point??

Using "region" implies that it happened over a larger, more spread out area.  That they were all from one village means the children likely had a lot more in common/a lot more shared exposure to other things beyond having gotten the same vaccine at the same time than if they lived farther apart.  

According to a google, the population of Gouro is "very small" according to some sources and "under a thousand" according to others.  If it really is under a thousand, and 500 were vaccinated there, then that means somewhere between half the population and the entire population (depending on how much under a thousand it is) was vaccinated at the same time.  Most likely pretty much all (if not actually all) the younger people and kids at least got the vaccine.  So if it was an unrelated virus or chemical exposure or whatever that was just coincidental to the time of the vaccination, you aren't going to see it happening in unvaxed kids too to reveal that if there are no (or very few) kids who weren't vaccinated.  

If it was a problem with the vaccine, that it happened only in this one village and to such a high number of people implies that it most likely isn't a problem inherent in the vaccine but rather that the vaccine was contaminated with something whether by accident or tampering, onsite or at the place of manufacture, or a problem in the administering of the vaccine.  I would imagine that one of the things the investigation will check is whether the kids who were paralyzed all got vaccine from a particular lot that wasn't used anywhere else.  

But how big are vaccine lots?  Since this is supposed to be a cheap vaccine, I would guess (and I could be entirely wrong on this) that they make it in fairly large batches and it seems unlikely that one small village would use up an entire batch.  So if it were the vaccine, why would be seeing this only in one small village, at least if it was a problem from manufacture?

I guess we will have to wait and see what the investigation turns up.  

[pek64]

More recent online stories are saying up to 50 paralyzed. Not confirmed with the news, though.

Paralysis occurred within 24 hours of the vaccine. If it wasn't the vaccine itself, then it would seem those who brought the vaccine also brought the cause of the problem. Still concerning. How long will the investigation take?

[Rrrrrachel]

http://www.meningvax.org/files/2ndstatementMoHChad_21Jan2013.pdf

[pers]

Apparently one of the paralysed kids was not vaccinated.  

 

Quote:

Chad's government on Tuesday said a team of international experts have not been able to find any links between the hospitalization of 38 children and their recent vaccinations against meningitis.

The children fell ill in the northern village of Gouro and were admitted to hospital after being vaccinated in a government campaign against the disease between December 11 and 15.

[...]

According to the statement, one child who never received the meningitis shot "complained of suffering from the same symptoms" found in the other children.

[...]

 

Source: http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5ij_y4eNkf4PSpY8X7B4vw9bsCi7g?docId=CNG.f13e0924e6ce3a29f2c8b9dfd07d7f70.6e1

The same article claims that the children have recovered and are leading normal lives again, and that over 100 million people across ten countries in Africa were vaccinated with this vaccine in 2012.

Could it still be a coverup and they are lying that one of the sick kids had not had the vaccine?  Sure.

But 100,000,000 doses... If it caused such terrible reactions at a rate of even close to 40 out of 500 in general, it would be impossible to cover up, so why is this one small village being hit so badly?  

Originally Posted by pek64 

More recent online stories are saying up to 50 paralyzed. Not confirmed with the news, though.

Paralysis occurred within 24 hours of the vaccine. If it wasn't the vaccine itself, then it would seem those who brought the vaccine also brought the cause of the problem. Still concerning. How long will the investigation take?

I've seen sites saying that some or  many of them started showing symptoms shortly after or 24 hours, but what source is saying paralysis occurred within 24 hours? 

It's possible they brought a disease in with them or caused it to spread by not following proper sanitary procedures... or it's possible it was entirely unrelated to the vaccine and the timing is coincidental.  I do hope they continue to investigate and are able to determine the exact cause of the illness, but assuming the do find it worth paying for the investigation, sadly it is unlikely we will ever hear the results (unless they find it was the vaccine after all) as Western media is generally not that concerned with the going ons of a remote village in Africa, and Vaxtruth and such is very unlikely to retract their claims or spread the word if a non-vaccine cause is determined. 

[Rrrrrachel]

The link I posted above is the results of the investigation.

[BeckyBird]

This?

"The crises are triggered by noise, visits by foreigners, and the occurrence of crises among other patients.
Apart from these agitated periods, the children lead normal lives."

"The symptoms observed in patients are similar to those described in the literature under several names:
o Collective hysteria
o Collective obsessive behavior
o Mass psychogenic phenomenon"

?

And you believe this?

[Rrrrrachel]

I knew that would go over like a lead balloon, but I don't see any reason not to believe it. It makes more sense to me than that 36 vaccines out of a lot of thousands randomly (and all in the same village) caused paralysis, including somehow in a child that wasn't vaccinated.

[eireann]

Originally Posted by Rrrrrachel 

http://www.meningvax.org/files/2ndstatementMoHChad_21Jan2013.pdf

[prosciencemum]

There's a discussion of the report here http://lizditz.typepad.com/i_speak_of_dreams/2013/01/meningitis-vaccine-in-chad-not-the-cause-of-paralysis.html

It implies most of the children/young people are fine now and have gone home. Going from what was reported as compete paralysis to fine in less than a month sounds psychological to me....

Also if its true, that an unvaccinated child had the symptoms too would seem very conclusive.
Edited by prosciencemum - 1/25/13 at 3:03am