I'm curious if this means you read the link rrrrrachel posted with an open mind.
1 in 50 with Autism now??!! - Page 3
Has anyone seen these articles in the news recently?
Well, I will tell you my mind closes right up to this stuff (same with the "pear" stuff) - when you see these type of links and you check (as many here DO!) where they are coming from, who is posting (and re-posting) and what type of sites they also appear on, it is not what appeals to most.
Are you thinking (and assuming the same of Rrrrrachel since she posts this stuff too) that somehow these links and (in the case of the pear thing) will change the minds on some?
Even the extremely undecided are insulted as to the degrading means the vaccine push side is resorting too.
You would better do some BETTER research- it's having the opposite effect.
And the opposite effects is just what the other PRO-vacers are reporting on the Pro-sites, seems the "pear" also did not go over well with others who re-posted it and got the same reaction as on here.
IMO- this site is just turing into a platform for a set agenda, both of you are reposting at the same time with what is "popular" on the other PRO-sties, sad you both lack originality too.
So, the question is then whether the data underlying this paper supports that idea or not. To answer that question I pulled the underlying data from the 2011/2012 National Survey of Children's Health and did some analysis of the data.
Regardless, the idea that the majority of the 0.9 increase in autism prevalence is being cause by older children being missing simply doesn't hold water even under a generous reading of "older children".
Remember arguments from yester-month or yester-year?
Person A would say "the real rate of autism is rising" and Person B would counter with a study about how people in England went door to door and they found an average of 1/100 adults with autism upon screening? For many this was "proof" autism was always with us and there is no real rise.
Here is one study:
"One in 100 adults has a form of autism – the same rate as in children – the first study of its kind has suggested."
I wonder what these people have to say about the new 1/50 number? I wonder if we will now have people going door -to-door screeening for autism and claiming it it has always been about 1/50? (snort)
The study (according to the article I posted) looked at 4000 people.
If you have a link to the study, I would appreciate it. I just spent 10 minutes on google looking for it to no avail.
I never bought the study anyways (under the heading of "if you look for things, you will find them") but those who did believe autism has always been with us and in these numbers used to trot it out with some regualrity to "prove" their point.
ETA: this article says the study looked at 7500 people - so either someone has their numbers wrong or it is a second study saying the prevalence in the adult population is 1%.
"However, despite these concerns, the NHS looked at 7,500 adults and found a prevalence of autism of about 1% in all age groups – the same as the current rate among children. This is consistent with the hypothesis that autism rates are in fact stable over time – not increasing."
All of this just makes me want to contact skeptic groups and see if they would like to eat crow.
PSM, I find the statistical error thing a little weak. Either people bought the study and have now been proved wrong, or they always knew the studies did not prove anything due to the margin of statistical error, yet did not bother to highlight this (until now…when they are appearing wrong), which is hardly good science. Of course, maybe they did not bother to look at the study closely until it no longer matched what they were trying to say - but that is hardly good science, either. No matter which way you slice it, claiming " a prevalence of autism of about 1% in all age groups …. This is consistent with the hypothesis that autism rates are in fact stable over time – not increasing" means they have egg on their face as it seems 1/50 now have ASD.
Edited by kathymuggle - 3/30/13 at 6:31am
Another mom to an Autistic child who was not vaccinated until well after his dx. I know of a few others that I met here, FTR.