Maybe one of you math nerds can help me: How would we go about calculating these figures? What would the formula look like? What kinds of numbers would we need to crunch? What factors would we want to control for? Maybe overall vaccination rates, assuming we go by "herd immunity?" Quantifiable measures of how healthy or sanitary a population is?
I honestly doubt that such data is available. But it's fair to wonder if we're talking about a damning, imminent threat . . . or speculative, emotional fear-mongering based on lightning-strike statistics.
I do worry about disease outbreaks. I also worry about tsunamis, school shootings, and airline accidents. But because fear is such a powerful psychological force, it is interesting, when possible, to attach numbers to our fears.
I'm sure that someone will inevitably ask to run the similar numbers for vaccine reactions. Since most of those get explained away as coin-kee-deenks, however, I'm not sure how to go about that. But I'm open to ideas.