I've heard all those tricks too, but haven't had too much success with them. This method works well for me...
Making sure that the free tail of the yarn is wrapped around the thumb, cast on 10 stitches. Pull those ten stitches off the needle and unravel those ten stitches, noting how much yarn you needed from the tail end (just what you used for the stitches, not the extra tail). Then just multiply that length by the # of stitches you need divided by 10. For example, if I had to cast on 110 stitches, I would multiply the length of yarn that I needed for 10 stitches by 11. Then just make sure you cast on with the free tail around the thumb again.
I hope that was clear. Math is not my strong suit, and trying to
explain something mathematically makes my eyes cross.

