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By request. Polio Statistics and related thoughts  

post #1 of 7
Thread Starter 
1955, Journal of American Statistical Assn 50: 1005- 1013 stated of the Francis report
Quote:
59% of the trial was worthless because of lack of adequate controls. The remaining 41% may have been alright, but contains internal evidence of bias in favour of the vaccinated.
He also pointed out that
Quote:
the initial decision (later changed) to vaccinate all willing second graders and to use the nonvolunteer second graders and all first and third-grade children as uninoculated controls nearly invalidated the 1954 trials... Placebo-inoculated volunteers eexperienced significantly more disease than did age-comparable unvaccinated nonvolunteers"
The reviewer, Mr Brownlee, also pointed out that the National Foundation had proclaimed gamma globulin effective after similar trials, when it had been later proven useless.

Lancet April 23, 1955, p 851 reported on the Francis report

Quote:
Bulbospinal paralysis, 81 - 94% protection.
Spinal paralytic form 60 % protection.
Non-paralytic form, NIL protection
Which, frankly, doesn't make sense, but never mind.

BMJ, April 30, 1955 says about the Francis Report, that large sections of the trial were subject to doubtful procedures, open to criticism; for instance
Quote:
1) innoculated children on one large section were not the same age as the uninnoculated controls

2) childrren to be innoculated were those whose parents agreed to have it done. It is recognised amongst statisticians involved in similar assessments that the social position and care in volunteer families are usually superior to that in controls
see here:

http://www.findarticles.com/cf_dls/m...le.jhtml?term=

What is more interesting still, is the fact that Dr Sabin, of the Sabin vaccine "fame" in an article in Skope Weekly, January 21, 1959, page 4, cited studies illustrating the unpredictable immune response of children given a full series of Salk Inoculations.

Five months after the third dose, 44% were eithout demonstrable antibody for Type 1 poliovirus, while 53% were without type 3. In terms of serum levels sufficient to yield antibody in nasopharyngeal excretions, inadequate titers were found in 78% for Type 1, and 84% for Type 3.

Quoted in the Tri State Medical Journal, February 1959, :The folly in the continued use of a killed polio virus vaccine" Fred. R. Klenner.

The other interesting bit is a letter from England in the Journal of the American Medical Association, Volume 163, No 2, January 12, 1957 which stated that
Quote:
an analysis of the figures (Salk Polio Vaccine) shows that the incident of paralytic cases among the vaccinated children who had poliomyelitis was 40% as compared with 44% among the unvaccinated children."
which makes a monkey of the protection stats for paralytic polio in the Francis trials....

The statistics from the Polio Surveillance Units stats are very revealing, (except you won't be able to see them, because they are now classified.... and if you don't believe me, try and get hold of copies of them)

What they show is that in 1955 there were 7,886 cases of paralytic polio, 15% of them, were vaccinated.

1956, 7210 paralytic cases, 16% vaccinated. Non paralytic polio 6027 cases, 32% vaccinated.

1957, 2172 casses p polio, 30% vaccinated, 2,603 np polio, 54% vaccinated.

1958, 3122 p polio cases, 33% vaccinated.

(Note well, that at this point in the medical literature, it states that ONLY 36% of USA's population had been vaccinated with the first 3 primary doses Reviews of Infectious Diseases, Volume 2, No 2, March - April 1980, pages 277-281 Eradication of Poliomyelitis in the United States: A commentary on the Salk Reviews by Dr John P Fox, and notice that it was also required that booster doses be given EVERY year. The article just mentioned also pointed out that most of the available evidence for antibody persistence after either IPV or OPV is of questionable validity...)

1959, 5,594 p polio cases 50%+ cases vaccinated which equals 3726 cases, of which 928 had had three or more doses)

1960, 2,545 p polio cases, 210 deaths, 77% fully vaccinated (four doses)

(These last three years were given to me verbally, by Dr Herbert Ratner, who had copies...)

(You also have to remember that in this time, the definition of polio was changed and refined.

In 1956, "Vaccine satellite cases" of which there were many, were "dropped". The PSU didn't accept these as vaccine related - they are listed under unvaccinated.

But in 1960, with the introduction of SABIN vaccine, satellite cases were once again reported and classified as vaccine induced

In 1957 the UPSR Supplement no 15, was the first recommendation, that no longer should "polio", caused by "other" agents, such as echoviruses, coxsackie viruses or any other cause other than polio virus, be listed under polio, and further in order to be defined as polio, the patient not only had to have virus, but also had to have residual paralysis 60 days later.

in 1958, the Centers for Disease control formally adoped as "best available paralytic poliomyelitis case count"BAPPCC
Quote:
Cases must be clinically and epidemiologically compatible with poliomyelitis, must have resulted in paralysis, and must had a residual neurolgoical deficit 60 days after onset of initial symptoms. .. the BAPPCC does not include cases of nonparalytic poliomyelitis, of those in which paralysis is more transient. The original purpose of developing these criteria was to omit cases possibly due to enteroviruses other than polioviruses" Lancet, December 8. 1984 pages 1315 - 1317, "Poliomeylitis" Robert J. Kim-Farley et al .
This paper also makes the point that "Several generations of transmission of poliovirus can occur after improtation since most infections are subclinical." and... "the poliovirus isolated from a patient with paralytic disease may not always be the virus causing the patient's disease". So its not a simple issue, as they would like you to think it is...)

The definition changes were so radical, that many doctors publicly stated in medical journals, effectively eliminated 90% of what had previous been accepted as paralytic polio.

In Wkly Epid Rec. 1970, 45, p 318, in 1970, there were 19 cases of paralytic polio. 8 of those had had 3 doses of vaccine, and there was no mention of one or two doses, which followed the trend of anything less than three doses being classified as "unvaccinated"

Evidence that the vaccine was not very good, was also published in 1973 Lancet 2: 899 - 900 (1973) Red D et al, Poliomyelitis - A gap in immunity?" which found that only 49% of nursery school children studied had antibody to all three types, and 54% of the children with a history of immunisation lacked any immunity whatsoever.

This was followed by another study in 1977, 2: 1078 "Protection against polio, Codd A and White E, found that among children 1 - 5 years of age, only 43% had antibody to all three types, and 25% lacked antibody to any. Among those 5 - 19 years, 40% had antibody to all three typles, and 17% had no antibodies to anythign. In all adult age groups, except those 30 - 39, at least 15% entirely lacked polio antibodies, and the proportion of people with antibodies to all three types ranged from just under or just over 50%.

So they don't tell you, that even with the vaunted SABIN vaccine, which was brought in oh so quietly, because the SALK vaccine palinly didn't work, the results weren't that much different....

If you are looking at the early studies which looked at the percentage of children who would get polio in epidemic conditions, there is a paper in the American Journal of Public Health, Volume 26, 147, 1936 by M. Brodie which showed that only 0.6% (yes nought point six percent) of all children in the age group 1 - 10, showing NO antibodies, would ever came down with polio even when the disease was present in epidemic proportions.

Another study by Dalldorf and Weigand, in the Journal of Experimental Medicine, 108:605 - 616, 1958, showed that in monkeys, poliomyelitis may result from simultaneous infections with an attenuated poliovirus and polio-like virus, such as a coxsackie virus. Neither virus alone induced paralysis, but together they did.

And further, there was a huge epidemic of enterovirus 71 in Bulgaria in with 700 seriously ill patients, 21% of whom developed poliomyelitis like paralysis, and 44 died. (Intervirology 4 : 369 - 370, 1974, Enteroviruses, 69, 70, 71 Melnick J.L. )
post #2 of 7
Bookmarked! Thank you!.....And wow!
post #3 of 7
Thread Starter 
Just a thought.

You might find it useful, if you have enough hard drive space, to save it in your computer as it appears here.

It's easy.

You go up the top to file and go down to "save as..." click on that, and it will bring up probably "My documents" to save it in.

I have a special folder for threads, and click on that, and then click "save".

You get papers thrown across a little box, and it saves it as it appears here.

If the thread goes beyond a page, you'll have to add pg 2 when you save the next page, or it will tell you it already has one called that...

Then when you are off-line, you can pull each one up to read off your hard drive, without having to reconnect.

And if for some reason, due to changing server or whatever threads get lost, you have the ones you wanted to keep anyway.

Every now and again, as I add more, I do a back up copy to CD in case my computer crashes.
post #4 of 7
Wow! another great post.

Thank you!

Dr. Herbert Ratner is/was a friend of the late great Dr. Robert Mendelsohn.
post #5 of 7
Thank you, MT! I've saved it.
post #6 of 7
Well how cool--it worked !
I did not know how to do that--thanks MT!!

So -do people (in USA )still get polio ??Is it called something else-Gullian B?
post #7 of 7
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Mothering › Forums › Health › Vaccinations › Vaccinations Archives › Polio › By request. Polio Statistics and related thoughts