There isn't really any way to know what your chances are because it is highly individual. I didn't get my first post partum period until my dd was 15 months old. this seems to be pretty common among EBF mamas. From what I can see your body is probably not ready for another babe right this second. Weaning may or may not change that. You could try other things to get AF to return such as Vitex, or Red raspberry leaf tea.
I would bet cash that you are probably ovulating but having luteal phase issues. Do you chart? I know it seems like a PITA but I am so thankful for my charting. It has helped me pinpoint the exact reason I am not concieving and it really only takes a few minutes a day. An annovulatory cycle would have no thermal shift or EWCM.
The Luteal Phase, cause people have been asking. It is the length of time between when you O and get your AF. It takes 7-10 days for the fertilized egg to implant, if your luteal phase is shorter than 12-16 days, the egg usually does not have time to implant, therefor you don't get preggers. Here is the lowdown off of my Ovusoft primer
For about two weeks after ovulation, progesterone is being released by what used to be the ovarian follicle, now called the corpus luteum, while it is attached to the ovarian wall. Progesterone causes the endometrium to remain conducive to the implantation of a fertilized ovum. It also causes your temperature to rise perceptibly, typically 0.4º Fahrenheit / 0.2º Celsius. Additionally, progesterone causes estrogen levels to drop, resulting in the drying up of your cervical fluid. This period of your cycle is known as the 'luteal phase' and, when followed by menstruation, its length is usually fairly consistent, normally lasting between 12 and 16 days, though it rarely varies by more than a day for any individual woman.
There are a number of things you can do to help this. You can supplement with B6 vitamins, Vitex or chasteberry (but it takes 3-4 months to reach therapeutic levels), progesterone cream, and nightweaning. Night nursing has been linked to lower progesterone levels. Not that I am saying to go nightwean. It is highly personal. At this point I am doing B6 for a couple of months. I am 4 DPO and my average luteal phase is 8 days so I am hoping to at least get 9 this time.
Well that got long. I hope you all are doing well. This 2 WW has me pulling out my hair. I really don't expect to concieve this cycle but I always have hope. My temps are looking great though. http://www.tcoyf.com/forum/chart.asp?id=rozziesma