Quote:
Originally Posted by mightymoo 
This is already the case in a lot of the country, a ton of underpriced homes on the market and no or few buyers. Though there are still some markets where homes are appreciating.
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most lenders closed more 5 year arms than 3 year ones, the 3 year ones exploded last year... that gives us 2 years from the start of this economic downturn till the 5 year ones start to pop. And since they are going to happen during the already depressed market conditions... they will be much more severe. It is a little known industry fact that most of the foreclosures from this mess are NOT currently on the market. Banks are not liquidating foreclosures in high buck areas because all of their assets (loans written on adjacent properties) are valued based on comps (that is how appraisals work)... so if you are a bank, it is worth it to actually make the mortgage payment yourself on a few thousand properties than to lower the value of all your other assets in the area by liquidating foreclosures. It is a house of cards... if you try to get your money out, you will cause many other loans to fail. If one of the big banks folds (WaMu, Wells, BofA) every single home in the US will go down 30-40%... seriously.
I am fortunate enough to have bought in an apreciating market, with low home prices (Texas) so our house has theoretically appreciated, but it will still be very difficult to sell, but because of the price, there is no possible loan that would result in me not being able to make the payments.
I think it is very likely that there will be mass migration away from NY and LA, the home prices will hit their 15 year low in those areas, then all of the sudden those that survived the storm will start snatching up houses in NY and LA and the market will recover to "near-boom" prices very quickly, because the simple fact is that houses are not stock, they can't really ever lose all of their value, and as long as NY and LA are the way they are, there will be an infinite number of people who would put all their money on the line to live there.
So basically what I am saying is "We ain't seen nothing yet" and as long as you have set things up so you can always afford your house payment, you will benefit or at least not be harmed. This is why I will never have an ARM.