Originally Posted by g&a
I am going for a VBAC. I think my personal chances are higher than 18%, though, as I am staunchly committed. I shudder at the 82%, though, with research showing that it is safer for most moms. 82%. Really unbelievable.
I don't think you can compare your own statistical chance of achieving VBAC to the 82% overall chance of ERCS though. How many women in that 82% opted for ERCS without attempting VBAC?
For example, if you have 100 women who had a previous c-section, at the end of the day, 82 of them will have an ERCS.
How many of them attempted a VBAC at all? Around here, the number of women attempting VBAC is dismal, *however* the number of women who DO attempt VBAC and *achieve* VBAC is much higher than 18%.
Of those 82 women who had an ERCS, I'd venture to guess a VERY large number of them never tried to VBAC in the first place. I've seen some stuff that said the overall percentage of women who attempted VBAC was less than 20% (not hard to imagine considering how hard it can be to find a provider willing to attend a VBAC). If that's the case, an 18% overall VBAC rate isn't bad if such a small number of women are trying it in the first place.
What you need to compare your odds with is how many woman attempt VBAC vs. how many achieve VBAC. I've seen stats on that particular circumstance given at 70-80%, not shabby numbers considering the overall section rate is 30% or more in lots of places.