From the American Cancer Society:
Penile cancer: 1530 cases diagnoised in America in 2006, 280 deaths.
http://www.cancer.org/docroot/CRI/co....asp?sitearea=
Male Breast Cancer: 2030 cases diagnosed in America in 2006, 450 deaths.
http://www.cancer.org/docroot/CRI/co...8.asp?rnav=cri
Penile cancer is twice as rare as male breast cancer, yet there's no call for removal of male breast tissue at birth.
Risk factors for penile cancer: Cleanliness, HPV, Smoking, Age>65, and AIDs.
http://www.cancer.org/docroot/CRI/co...5.asp?rnav=cri
They list "not being circumcised" as a risk, but the section really doesn't add any new information. The "Cleanliness, Phimosis, and Smegma" section and "HPV" sections cover it. Phimosis can make it harder for a man to wash and cleanliness is a factor in penile cancer. So, treat the phimosis conservatively with stretching and steroid cream, not circumcision.
This study from Denmark shows that this intact population has essentially the same penile cancer rate as the United States:
http://www.bmj.com/cgi/content/full/311/7018/1471
In summary, penile cancer is a very rare cancer. If you are seriously concerned about it, advise your son to wash regularly, avoid STDs and HIV through safe sex practices, and don't smoke. Consider the HPV vaccine when it is available for males. Circumcision will really make no difference.