Anyone else really worried about the Economy? - Page 5

[llamalluv]

Originally Posted by dhinderliter

i didn't say that you should buy NOW. i said that you should carefully watch the market and if you are prepared to buy in 2 yrs but the market is the best buying (i.e. lowest thats its going for this recession and now is on the uptake) you should buy even though it may be only 1 yr 11 months instead of 2 years. i basically said that just b/c you have well thought out and intentioned plans it doesn't mean they are set in stone and that buying Low and having it coincide as it looks like it should means you should keep your eyes open and stretch a little for 2-5 months in order to SAVE in the long run. Also besides the fact that "everyone" who went out and bought even though they couldn't afford it they also bought HIGH and just cause everyone else was. you nor i said that was a good thing. we had no down payment on our house so its not like its just the stupidest thing on the planet to do.

I didn't say you were stupid. I said we don't plan on buying without a down payment, and it's going to take us about 2 years to save $50,000. There's not any way that DH & I can buy a $225-250K house on a 15 year fixed rate mortgage, without a 20% down payment. The PITI alone would kill our monthly budget, not to mention the PMI added on.

And the buying at the very very bottom of the market only matters for people who plan to flip the house, or sell to "upgrade". We're looking for a three bedroom home with lots of back yard space and we don't have any problem stacking kids 3 deep. We are planning on buying a home and staying put for at least 10 years. Missing out on a month or two (or a year or two) of "fast gains" won't matter to us, because we aren't buying a house as strictly an investment, but as a home.

I was just commenting that it would be nice if the downturn continued until the timing was right for us. If it works out not to be, then we'll buy a 2 bedroom Cape Cod and renovate as we have the cash.

A.D. Kessler i am sure has a website but i know that unless you find the book completely written out it will not have that insignificant blurb (on page 230) written on his website. The correct dates are 73-79 for the information written above. i am NOT a historian or buff of history so i can't comment on if there was or wasn't another recession in 1897.

okay. I just looked up this fool, and all I see for the first few pages is "warning!" "Scam!"

So that might be why he got the dates of the Long Depression wrong...

http://www.johntreed.com/Reedgururat...l#anchor529501

[llamalluv]

Originally Posted by katheek77

The longest recession of the 20th century was from Aug '29 - Mar' 33.

There was another starting in '37.

I'm assuming that even though the "recession" ended in '33, it was such a hard one that it took a while to climb out.

ETA: AHA! A graph for those of us so inclined.

More lists

Yup! The Great Depression was two recessions! My great-grandparents were part of the Oakie movement, and they settled in Tehachapi, CA. (Just another GOW reference for y'all)

[WeasleyMum]

Originally Posted by A&A

Why won't it get that bad? Just because you don't want it to?

Originally Posted by KatWrangler

Hell yes I am worried about the economy. Its not Media Hype to my family! My husband was laid off 11 weeks ago today. There is no work in his profession in the state we live. We are 100% sure we are moving elsewhere.

Food prices have gone up. Gas is up to $3.38 a gallon (as of a couple of days ago).

But as Applejuice said, "Life goes on." We will survive.

There are a couple of reasons why a recession now, even a severe one, would be hard-pressed to match the Great Depression. For one thing, banks are insured by the federal government now-- you know that "FDIC up to 100,000 blah blah blah" that you always hear in bank commercials, printed on the counters, etc-- means that the money you keep in the bank won't just up and dissapear. If you have any relatives who lived through the Great Depression, what are their attitudes towards banking? A lot of that generation never got over the distrust that came from seeing their hard-earned savings stolen from them by banks going under. That can't happen now, thank goodness. In the beginning of the Great Depression (and in the months prior, when warning signs began popping up), the government's general attitude was that the market had to be self-regulating. They did very little at first to try to control the damage, and when it became clear how disasterous that approach was, everything else was too little, too late. Ever since, we've pretty much had a government that wants to jump on any sign of a recession and fix it if they can, and a very active Federal Reserve. (Nobody wants to be the next Hoover.) They may not always be making good decisions (hah!), but nobody's just sitting back and letting 'nature take it's course', either.

Then again, World War One used to be called, The Great War...

[obiandelismom]

If you want to *really* get spooked, pick up this month's Harper's magazine (they don't have the articles online yet). An economist recaps all the "fudges" that have been sneaked into the various ecoonomic indexes (indicies?) over the years, and recalculates the numbers using the 1980 formulas. Unemployment is actually 10-12% right now, inflation is 9%, GDP is negative... yikes! :

[Azuralea]

Originally Posted by obiandelismom

Unemployment is actually 10-12% right now, inflation is 9%, GDP is negative... yikes! :

I'd say that this matches with how things "feel" to me now. Scary. :

[A&A]

Originally Posted by WeasleyMum

There are a couple of reasons why a recession now, even a severe one, would be hard-pressed to match the Great Depression. For one thing, banks are insured by the federal government now-- you know that "FDIC up to 100,000 blah blah blah" that you always hear in bank commercials, printed on the counters, etc--

I'm plenty aware of the FDIC, thanks. But I'm really not counting on a gov't that is TEN TRILLION DOLLARS in debt to be able to bail everybody out at the same time. (Or large groups of people at the same time.) A bank here and there? Sure. But not half the banks in the country. (Half the banks were closed in '33.) Alternately, they would print additional money to cover all of those FDIC promises......but then we'd just have hyper-inflation.

Let me repeat that. Our gov't is TEN TRILLION DOLLARS in debt. That's a low estimate. Other estimates have it much higher. SS, FDIC, etc. will simply FAIL if we hit a 25%--40% unemployment rate.

[A&A]

Originally Posted by llamalluv

The GD was not just a market thing. A lot of people THINK it was caused by Black Tuesday all by itself, but it wasn't. It was the result of a LOT of things happening all at once and then it was prolonged by other things: spooked investors, bank failures, post-war inflation (other countries abandoned the Gold Standard), WORLD-WIDE post war debt, a world wide decline in demand for US goods, high US tariffs making US goods even LESS desirable, severe drought (dust bowl).

Yes, I know. And we have multiple financial/global pressures on us now, too.

I'm really not trying to be all "gloom and doom." But sticking our heads in the sand won't help, either. Major earthquakes often happen........where they happened before. Same with economic crises. We can't count on "little tremors" (recessions) staying little forever.

[A&A]

and, just for the record, let me point out that it was a Democratic president (FDR) who instituted the "New Deal" programs of the FDIC, WPA, Social Security, etc. And our recent Republican presidents have done their darndest to weaken social programs, particularly social security. Just keep that in mind when you're voting.

[HopelessPoet]

Originally Posted by A&A

and, just for the record, let me point out that it was a Democratic president (FDR) who instituted the "New Deal" programs of the FDIC, WPA, Social Security, etc. And our recent Republican presidents have done their darndest to weaken social programs, particularly social security. Just keep that in mind when you're voting.

Yep!

[Savoir Faire]

We think/talk about this a bunch.

Things people can still get rid of: (Not necessarily saying "you" but in general)

Television, cell phones, INTERNET, gym memberships, extracurriculars....

We got rid of cable and cell phones and save $140/month. If we decide to do away with our second (paid off) vehicle, we will save $30/month in insurance alone...

[Tradd]

Originally Posted by Savoir Faire

We think/talk about this a bunch.

Things people can still get rid of: (Not necessarily saying "you" but in general)

Television, cell phones, INTERNET, gym memberships, extracurriculars....

We got rid of cable and cell phones and save $140/month. If we decide to do away with our second (paid off) vehicle, we will save $30/month in insurance alone...

I've not had a TV in about 4.5 years, and I hadn't had cable for about 5 years before that. I only have a cell phone because I have a long commute. I have a prepaid Tracfone that I put $20 on every 2-3 months or so. I'd cut back elsewhere before I got rid of my DSL! I have very few things I can actually get rid of, aside from really watching the grocery bill and eating out (which to me is a local sub shop). I've consciously cut back over a few years, and now only have about $3800 remaining in debt (car loan). My goal is to pay that off and build up savings.

[llamalluv]

Originally Posted by A&A

Yes, I know. And we have multiple financial/global pressures on us now, too.

I'm really not trying to be all "gloom and doom." But sticking our heads in the sand won't help, either. Major earthquakes often happen........where they happened before. Same with economic crises. We can't count on "little tremors" (recessions) staying little forever.

But my point is - some of those things CAN be changed now, before they lead to a massive recession like the 30's. Like tariffs on EXPORTS and taxes can be reduced. Tariffs on IMPORTS can be increased. NAFTA can be repealed....

[llamalluv]

Originally Posted by A&A

and, just for the record, let me point out that it was a Democratic president (FDR) who instituted the "New Deal" programs of the FDIC, WPA, Social Security, etc. And our recent Republican presidents have done their darndest to weaken social programs, particularly social security. Just keep that in mind when you're voting.

And I'm not so sure that SS is a Great Deal. And it's certainly an Old Deal now....I'm paying out 7.5% of my earnings for money that I may never see again...and they continue to raise the "retirement age" and I get no say in the new terms. How is that fair?