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what percentage of babies come on their due date w/accurate conception date?

post #1 of 12
Thread Starter 
3 of my babies have come about 7 days past due date (I'm not counting one of my dd's because she came a month early due to emergency csection) and I never really had an accurate conception date. I didn't really know my body then, and just used the wheel that the ob's use to determine their due date. I do ovulate later then day 14 though, so I'm thinking that maybe they weren't late after all. I just had the wrong due dates.

Now, with my fifth, I know I ovulated somewhere between the 17-18th day and dh and I DTD on night 17. We just found out we're having a boy so that makes perfect sense that we concieved a boy. So by the OB wheel I'm due the 17th, but by my O day I'd be due 4 days later right? Making my real due date the 21st or 22nd. Which one should I count as O day? The morning that my temp was up? That would be the 18th cycle day. Conception would have taken place about 24 hours later right?

So, knowing pretty well when conception happened, what are the chances that baby will come on his due date? I'd really like to know so that I can get to the general area of my place of birth in due time since it is far. Dh and I were planning to get there a few days before due date and then staying there until baby's birth day comes. I don't know if this matters at all, but I've been having BH's like I've never had in a pregnancy, so I don't know if that will speed up labor time at all. Thanks so much for any insight to my true guess date.
post #2 of 12
Read this:
http://www.pregnancywizard.com/trime...e-accuracy.php


Read Naegele's rule.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Naegele%27s_rule
post #3 of 12
Thread Starter 
so if the assumption of Naegle's rule is that women ovulate on day 14 and ovulated on day 18, can I move up my due date by 4 days and have a more accurate due day? That would make by due date the 21st instead of the 17th.
post #4 of 12
Oh my! You want to make me read and think
Sit down with a calendar and count the days.
post #5 of 12
5% chance baby will be born on due date, assuming date is correct.
post #6 of 12
Thread Starter 
so still a very small chance. But maybe with a more accurate due date baby's are probably born closer to their due dates? Or can a baby still naturally wait 2 additional weeks ? I was thinking that they give you the 2 weeks on either side of the due date because due dates may often be inaccurate. But I could be wrong.
post #7 of 12
No, you have a "due range" because oven temps may vary.
post #8 of 12
Yup--'oven temps vary'

Women cook babies at varying lengths of time. Babies are ready to be born in varying lengths of time. I just really hate the 'due date' notion--I tell women that they might better think of it as a 'due moon'...sometime over the course of a one-month period, their baby will be born. Certainly O dates figure into the equation--but the equation simply does not have '1 right answer' in any event.
post #9 of 12
Cynthia,

If your plan is to be comfortably settled in your birthing destination it will still be a guess, go the week of your due date and enjoy the wait once you get there.

Even when one has all the accurate dates, emotional readiness comes into play. I would error on the side of getting settled into the birth destination earlier to relax and let go to welcome the baby.

Will it be like a mini vacation to go to the birth destination? Is it just you and your partner ?
post #10 of 12
I just wanted to chime in with an anecdote: My good friend knew exactly the date of conception because her first baby was conceived with IVF. She still went two weeks past her due date and was induced by AROM.
post #11 of 12
I gave birth on my due date (counted from ovulation) and everyone was surprised. The day before or after would have been expected, but right on the due date seemed kind of rare. It did not even occur to me that I might go into labour that day.

Whenever someone asked about my due date I always told them it was between July 29th and August 26th.

Since you want to be able to plan, there is no real way to know when your baby is going to come. You might want to check your cervix to see if it is changing, but even that does not really mean much. I would definitely use your ovulation date instead of LMP as LMP really is only useful if you ovulate on day 14.
post #12 of 12
Quote:
Originally Posted by notjustmamie View Post
I just wanted to chime in with an anecdote: My good friend knew exactly the date of conception because her first baby was conceived with IVF. She still went two weeks past her due date and was induced by AROM.
I agree, there are so many reasons to not go into labor on the "know accurate due date".

I have many clients (I'm a doula service owner) that use IVF and none of them ever give birth on due dates (hormones, emotional, their apartments not ready, they have an intense career and not finished with a project at work!)

I was reading on the midwife archives that a lower functioning thyroid can cause you to carry longer sometimes for a couple weeks past the due date.
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