Long Emergency Question

[kikidee]

Hi there,

I am about halfway through the Long Emergency, I read most of the thread on here, and I skipped to the back of the book to see what he says about location. I am in Tucson, and am a little freaked out about the whole being in the desert "thirsty, starving, and abandoned"! So I'm thinking -- are any of you moving somewhere new in preparation for this? Is that insane to make such a huge life change based on reading this book?

I just truly believe that what he says is true, and think that we should at least consider moving somewhere new... so the second part to my question is -- where is the best place to live? I know that was discussed a bit in TLE thread, but I'm looking for more thoughts.

Thanks! (DH doesn't want to talk about this right now, b/c he's too freaked out, so that's why I'm brainstorming with you all. )

[Codililly]

HI there, I am so sorry to butt in as I haven't read this book and am not up on this thread - and i think we should always be working toward self reliance and prepare just for the record- but I don't know how to post a thread and it isn't in the FAQ's and I am so confused and would really appreciate some interaction with the other mamas and have a specific topic i would like to bring up, could you tell me what icon I am missing or large bold letters that say 'start a thread' or 'post here'? I was hoping it would be simple and not take up too much of your time. Thank you, Alyssa*

[kikidee]

No problem! Right above the header that says "Threads in Forum", there is a button that says "New Thread". Click on that, and you are good to go!

[Codililly]

Thank you!

Ah Bless you, thank you so much!

[Porcelain Interior]

Hi I just finished this book and it has become my new favorite topic.

I live in an area the author believes to be a medium risk (pac nw) he says we might have angry Chinese people come by ship looking for new ground.

We are contemplating making a small move to a smaller town but staying on the wet side of the mountains here in WA because water will be of utmost importance.

If I were you I'd definitely think of getting out of the dry area in the next 5 years. It's not a place you want to be when the oil runs out, even if it's half as bad as he says it's going to get.

I think anywhere but the areas prone to drought would be better.

It's all quite scary. I'm reading his fiction book now, World Made by Hand.

[A&A]

We're in Utah, still a desert but not quite as much as Arizona, and yeah, this freaks us out sometimes. We've tossed around Washington state or Vermont as places we might like to move to, but that's hard to do without jobs there, ya' know?
Dh actually applied for a job in Spokane, but didn't get it.

You wouldn't be moving based on a book, per se. You'd be moving based on the unsustainability of the state you're currently in. TLE just pointed that out to you, is all.

[Violet2]

My nephew and SIL moved to AZ and I forwarded an excerpt from TLE to my nephew advising him to enjoy AZ but not to own property there. So if you don't own a house, don't buy one. Sock your $$ away for a future move and enjoy AZ while it's livable.

Peak Oil aside, by 2025 something like 50% of the world will be in drought. Peak Water is coming. And the SW US is going to get hit hard.

I would say anywhere with an independent water source and with decent rainfall is good. Such as the Great Lakes.

V

[gentlemango]

The desert scares me because of the aquifur problems.

What does it say about the northeast? Heat is the big issue? I can't see how there are enough trees out here for everyone if and when it comes to that.

[Porcelain Interior]

The author is in the NE, says he moved there on purpose because he sees it being good on water, he says to avoid cities, and places that aren't plentiful with water or farmable land RIGHT nearby.

He doesn't favor the south, and he doesn't favor the midwest, even MT and ID.

The lower states are going to have water and temp problems. He also predicts that as our US economy starts freaking out (we haven't seen nothing yet) Mexico's economy will further shatter (we have so many people here that send money back there) that there will be a charge up here and the Mexicans may insist on taking "their" land back. (There are groups that feel NM, AZ, and a few other states were seized illegally from Mexico.) Sheesh what wasn't seized in the US right?

Anyway FL will probably go under water, and the author is worried about the backwoods gun toting hillbillies in the south going kind of marshall on everyone. (I have family there I can see this lol.)

It seems the amount of potentially semi ok land is going to shrink drastically. He predicts CA will be invading OR and WA as Mexicans cross the border to be in CA. That's nothing that hasn't already been happening though.

[chicasmama]

I haven't read the book but was curious what his prediction on how Colorado would fare through this is? I live in the foothills and we have lots of available water from snow melt and lots of farmable land east of the mountains.

[kikidee]

Originally Posted by chicasmama

I haven't read the book but was curious what his prediction on how Colorado would fare through this is? I live in the foothills and we have lots of available water from snow melt and lots of farmable land east of the mountains.

I was actually thinking about Colorado as a good possibility! I think if you are in an area that doesn't have too harsh of a winter, you would be OK. Ideally, I guess the best place to be would be somewhere with farmland around it, with a plentiful water source, and a temperate climate.

What's it like in Colorado?

I don't think we would want to go all the way to the NE, although that is where my family is, and I can see why it's a great place. Maybe if it starts to get really bad, we can trek up there and be by them. But I love the West and would like to stay out here if possible.

Thanks for all the posts - I find this topic fascinating.

[WeasleyMum]

I think what Kunstler writes about various regions should be taken with a grain of salt (he's down on pretty much every place but his own, as various reviewers have noted), but if I lived in Tuscon, yeah I'd be a little worried. It's not so hard to imagine that places like Arizona could be really badly affected, compared to more marginal parts of the Midwest.

One of the reasons that I was glad to move from Dallas, TX, to Charlottesville, VA, is that there's a really strong local foodshed here-- farms everywhere, farmers' markets, CSA's, all of that was kind of sparse in Dallas. That was before I was really aware of Long Emergency kind of issues, I was just into local eating, but reading LE made me be glad to be in an area like this. If I were still in Texas I'd be a bit worried, as I'm worried for my family there.

[EnglishRose]

Originally Posted by Porcelain Interior

...he doesn't favor the midwest, even MT and ID....

Since when are Montana and Idaho in the midwest?

On a more serious note, Montana (and probably Idaho, as well) has enough of a diverse food shed, that it could literally feed its people just on what is grown within the state. : (Providing that everyone plants as much of a veg patch as possible for them.)

Not to mention, Montana is currently at the forefront of fuel oil crops, and wind energy projects. We Montanans will be just fine, TYVM!

[CameronsMama]

I think pps are right that Kunstler is strongly biased. Also, keep in mind that TLE is much more of a worst case scenario than an actual prediction. True, it could get that bad but I don't think it's likely. I do think we will see some of it though. As for where is best, in general anywhere with water and farmland is a good bet. I would look at the pros and cons of the different areas and make your own choice about where is best, because I don't think Kunstler's assessment of the regions is accurate enough to entirely base a decision on. I think there are many areas that will fare relatively well in a LE situation. Even in the regions that may not do as well, there are smaller areas that will do better than that region as a whole. I wouldn't want to live in the desert (even in the best of times, though, I don't like heat!). I live in the PNW now and I feel good about it.


Also if I could clear up a couple little things really quick- to be a bit more PC, Kunstler warned of invaders from Asia in general not China specifically. Also he didn't move to the NE, he has always been there with a few very short stints in other places. That is probably the reason he is so biased, he spent almost all of his life in NY state, and has never really lived anywhere else.

[Zamber]

There are lots of theories on catastrophes that are going to hit us. Global warming and the rising of the sea levels. Massive storms taking out areas all over the world just as Katrina took out New Orleans. Earthquakes may turn California into an island, comets may hit, etc. There is a theory for every thing imaginable. All of these theories are very much possible, including the oil crisis (and I do fully believe we are going into one right now). However, IMHO I think it would be unwise to make such a huge move based solely on one mans opinion. I personally think the best thing to do is prepare for the worst and hope for the best. Learn how to collect rain during monsoon season, and make water stretch (the water shortage will affect everyone, not just the desert). Make use of solar power and other alternative energies. Learn about the plants in the dessert that you can eat and use medicinally. Study what you can about permaculture (check this out - http://www.permaearth.org/ , it features a video on how they turned a completely empty desert landscape into a beautiful garden - with hardly any water! ). Basic survival skills are going to be the key in any catastrophic situation. Enjoy life, learn what you can, and put it into practice. And if you are truely scared about being "thirsty, starving, and abandoned", prepare and emergency kit (store lots of food and water) and an escape plan. This way you can enjoy the beautiful desert, and leave if something happens.

Signed - Moving to Marana, AZ this week.

[ShaggyDaddy]

Originally Posted by EnglishRose

Since when are Montana and Idaho in the midwest?

Everything not Los Angeles, not NYC is the midwest - a fuzzy spot on the map with unknown dimensions, population, and culture. I think they have mountains too. Haven't you ever watched TV? Movies?

[CameronsMama]

Originally Posted by ShaggyDaddy

Everything not Los Angeles, not NYC is the midwest - a fuzzy spot on the map with unknown dimensions, population, and culture. I think they have mountains too. Haven't you ever watched TV? Movies?

[ellemoon]

Can you post a link to the original thread? I can't find it. I am so interested in this topic. Here is a good blog I like. She writes about this subject.

http://sharonastyk.com/

Peace,
elle

[kikidee]

Originally Posted by ellemoon

Can you post a link to the original thread? I can't find it. I am so interested in this topic. Here is a good blog I like. She writes about this subject.

http://sharonastyk.com/

Peace,
elle

Here you go! Sharon Astyk is mentioned in the thread too --

http://www.mothering.com/discussions...d.php?t=902844

[ellemoon]

Originally Posted by kikidee

Here you go! Sharon Astyk is mentioned in the thread too --

http://www.mothering.com/discussions...d.php?t=902844

Thank you!