"Measles Outbreak"???

[WuWei]

Someone was concerned about a "Measles Outbreak" in the news. I did the following research and calculations, and wanted to share.


The risk of death is due to a complication secondary to measles, usually in children under age 15 months. Children are not given an initial MMR until age 12-15 months anyway. It doesn't work earlier, incompletely immunizes, therefore multiple doses given. Measles itself is not deadly.
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/bv...6.section.1531
http://www.vaccinationnews.com/Scand.../Scandal33.htm

The risk of death, secondary to measles is 1-3 people per 1000 CASES of measles. With fewer than 100 cases in the US population, most over the age of 15 months, the risk of death is infinitesimal. http://aapredbook.aappublications.or...ct/2006/1/3.75
http://www.wrongdiagnosis.com/m/measles/stats.htm

The possibility that anyone in the US could even acquire measles is 0.00000033%. Basically, 1 CASE per 3 million people!

In the US, there are approximately 5 million children, age 15 months and younger. The risk for a child under age 15 months to acquire measles is 1.5 CASES in 5 million children.

Of those 1.5 CASES in children under age 15 months, 0.1% would die each year.

(to check the numbers: there are approximately 300,000,000 people in the US, 1.66% of them are under age 15 months.)

Back when we were evaluating vaccination, we did these calculations for each disease and vaccination.

We don't vaccinate based upon the media fear-mongering. Do the math. Trust your body.



Pat

[TanyaS]

Well that certainly puts things in perspective! I think it's also important to remember that these numbers are only based on reported cases. How many diagnoses of "measles-like rash" are made each year? I'm guessing we'll never know since it's not required to report a "measles-like rash."

[gardenmom]

I did this for another discussion group this morning, so thought it would help put more data (direct from US government sources) out there to consider:

Here's the current CDC article on the "outbreak", and for those with
no time to read it, some snippets I think relevant. Please remember
that the current population of the US is around 305 million people:

http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/mm5733a1.htm

Measels, 2008, as of July 31, (stats from above linked article):
--131 cases reported to the CDC in the US
--76% of cases in those less than 20 years old*
--91% of cases in unvaccinated persons or persons of unknown status
--89% of cases were imported from other countries
--7 outbreaks (where 3 or more cases are linked) account for 81% of
the cases (106 cases)
--15 cases (11%) hospitalized, including 4 children under 15 months
old (my note: CDC recommends the vaccine at age 12-15 months, so these
children would most likely not have been vaxed yet even if their
parents choose to do so)
--0 deaths reported
--in 2007 total cases for the year was 67

Here is what I found when I searched the VAERS database
http://wonder.cdc.gov/vaers.html
for all reported incidents of vaccine adverse reactions for MMR
administered in 2008 so far. Please note that VAERS includes all
reports made, and not all are confirmed to be linked to the vax,
however I will be willing to go out on a limb and say that adverse events are probably very under reported:
--1413 reported adverse events
--1361 not serious
--510 visits to ER
--44 Hospitalizations
--1 Prolonged hospital stay
--11 life threatening events
--2 cases of permanent disability
--1 death

There are 110 more cases, including one permanent disability and 5
hospitalizations, when I searched MMRV vaccine (Measels, Mumps,
Rubella, Varicella), which I didn't know existed until this morning.

So according to the data so far for 2008, despite the "outbreak", in the Us, you are more likely to be hospitalized for the vax than the disease. I
think it is safe to say that the hospital related cases reported to
VAERS are most likely confirmed by medical personnel or they would not
have been reported at all.

You can do your own math on the rest.