Feel like the S is HTF in slow motion... - Page 2

[velochic]

Originally Posted by sanguine_speed

But if you're a good investor, you know it's not the time to pull out. And you know that there are these peaks and valleys. You don't *have to* watch the news if it's truly going to cause a mental health crisis for you...can you step back for a while and take a deep breath?

I am a good investor. I have over 20 years under my belt and I've seen the peaks and valleys. This valley is different. This goes beyond my investments tanking.

[slsurface]

Originally Posted by jennlyn

I think many people keep a pantry in case there is a natural disaster in their area or in case of economic hardship. If you or your significant other lose their job, wouldn't it be nice to know that at least you will have food to eat for awhile and can concentrate on what to do next?

I live in the Great Lakes area, we don't have natural disasters...Just unnatural ones.

I was just trying to get an idea of what was driving people to stockpile. I grew up with an extended family situation and was around my grandparent a lot. Consequently, I am very familiar with the stockpile and hoard mentality of pp who went through the Great Depression. We had a HUGE pantry, root cellar full of canned goods and dried food, and three gigantic chest freezers full of food. But we also lived in the middle of no where and had spotty electricity, so we were always prepared for anything. Since I married to DH and have lived in the city, with little storage space, I've gotten out of the habit of stockpiling food...I guess I have to re-learn it now that I have a house and have the space for it.

[leerypolyp]

The WaMu collapse has been in the works for months, though -- people have been talking about it for at least half a year. So it's not totally out of left field.

I agree with PPs that this is more comparable to the Great Depression, not Mad Max (one hopes, anyway). The frustrating thing for us is that we've got about 8 or 9 months before we move to our "permanent" location, where we'll want to buy a house, where I can finally set up a big garden with chickens and some food preservation (canning, drying) as well as storage for long-term pantry. Right now it's next to impossible to do any of those things, and I'm wondering if we'll be able to even get a mortgage this spring! (Our credit is great, but...TSHTF might render that irrelevant).

So I don't know what to do. At all.

[velochic]

Originally Posted by 1growingsprout

just my 2c. Today It hit me with Wamu... i dont know why, but it seems 3 biggies went down this week AIG, Merrill and Wamu, thats ALOT for one week.

I think this is the important key that makes this feel much different than, say the 80's. Small banks failed. Interest rates skyrocketed, but that meant that as long as you weren't borrowing you were okay... and I've never been a borrower. The cold war was still a clear and present danger, but we were not in a war that was costing billions upon billions of dollars.

Today, the stakes are higher and different. It's the combination of things. It's the stock market. It's major banks failing... and having multiple failures in a single week as growingsprout says. It's oil issues. It's the war that never wants to end. It's the threat of things like grain shortages, gas prices causing food to hyperinflate, a hard winter, crazy weather (tornadoes in Feb. last year, for example). Threats of terrorism. It's not one thing, for sure.

I grew up in the 70's. I remember the oil embargo. I remember sitting in line for hours with my legs sticking the vinyl in my dad's 59 Mercury to get a few gallons of gas. I remember when "regular" meant leaded gas, not "regular unleaded". I remember the inflation of the 80's very well (was an investor then already). The stock market crash in '87 is imprinted in my memory. This is different.

Typically, a depression is expected about once a century. We're getting due for one. I hope I'm wrong.

WaMu was possible for a while, but it wasn't imminent.

It is eerie for me to see history repeat itself. Near the end of the 8 years of Reagan ending in a stock market crash... 8 years of Bush ending in... economic disaster? Not sure yet.

[Stone Fence]

Stockpiling food is not about the Mad Max scnario. It's about feeding people in times of crisis. Maybe your family is OK. There are lots of families who are not OK now, and more are in trouble every day. In the event of any disruption of distribution, my family will have enough to eat and I can help out my neighbors too.

I can't say much that hasn't already been said.

I don't watch my investments (401K mutual fund stuff). No point in making myself crazy.

True preparation means learning skills.

[slsurface]

Originally Posted by Stone Fence

Stockpiling food is not about the Mad Max scnario. It's about feeding people in times of crisis. Maybe your family is OK. There are lots of families who are not OK now, and more are in trouble every day.

Oh, trust me, I know this. I live in a city with 28% unemployment and empty, foreclosed homes on every street. But it's been like this for four years here. So the "crisis" is nothing new to me.

[avendesora]

Originally Posted by velochic

I am a good investor. I have over 20 years under my belt and I've seen the peaks and valleys. This valley is different. This goes beyond my investments tanking.

Okay, this freaks me out. Velochic, I've always respected what you say here, and I've always appreciated your "sit tight, selling low is always a bad idea..." comments when others are nervous. But now you're nervous!

So what can I do? DH has a good job. I have a good part-time job. We have some money saved, but it's mostly in stocks (I figured because we're young, it was okay to put it in higher risk funds, and that we would move to more conservative funds right before our kids go to college or before retirement, etc). We haven't stockpiled, but we have a generally full pantry. Our cars are paid off. We have a mortgage, but that's it. Do we just wait and see? Or is there something useful we can do?

Aven

[Stone Fence]

Originally Posted by slsurface

Oh, trust me, I know this. I live in a city with 28% unemployment and empty, foreclosed homes on every street. But it's been like this for four years here. So the "crisis" is nothing new to me.

Holy smokes! Those are depression era numbers.


I too am disturbed by Velochic's distress.

[McFeelings]

I'm no velochic but I agree that when she gets nervous, I get nervous too!

Until she comes along here's my impression: Sounds like you are on the right track with the exception of having a diversified portfolio. I learned the hard way during the tech boom and bust that no matter how young you are, you should always have a diversified portfolio which should include at least a percentage in lower risk funds like bonds. If your money is in actual stocks and not stock funds, you are particularly exposed to dips in certain industries without enough balance in others.

If you aren't diversified right this moment, I'd make a long term plan to get more diversified either through reallocation or new contributions. As to exactly WHAT your portfolio should look like, that's really individualized. While you can certainly hire someone (fee based) to help you, it is very important to understand what YOUR goals, risk tolerance, etc. is and to learn exactly what you are doing with your money rather than just depend on others for advice.

Hope that helps.

[jlutgendorf]

Originally Posted by avendesora

Okay, this freaks me out. Velochic, I've always respected what you say here, and I've always appreciated your "sit tight, selling low is always a bad idea..." comments when others are nervous. But now you're nervous!

So what can I do? DH has a good job. I have a good part-time job. We have some money saved, but it's mostly in stocks (I figured because we're young, it was okay to put it in higher risk funds, and that we would move to more conservative funds right before our kids go to college or before retirement, etc). We haven't stockpiled, but we have a generally full pantry. Our cars are paid off. We have a mortgage, but that's it. Do we just wait and see? Or is there something useful we can do?

Aven

Yes! If Velochic ain't happy, ain't nobody happy!

Partner and I just started talking about reworking how we'll be doing things. I think we need to continue this conversation.

~Julia

[jentilla]

Well.....
we dumped our 401 and made all teh money we put in and what was matched even after penalty and taxes and there was some extra even. Now we hadn't lost a "ton" yet and granted it wasn't huge only about 5 yrs worth. It was worth it to dh and I to insulate ourselves better. We haev no debt except mortgage and we are paying it forward 6 months on Monday. We will continue to pay it and always be 6 months ahead. We will have 3 months food by the end of the next week (we have about a month and a half), I'm making lists right now. We also reinvested some it, that will likely make up the money we "lost." We are keeping 6 months worth of mortgage payments as emergency cash. We are also 30 years from retirement so "IF" the market starts to recover sooner tahn later we will get back in with more then thenow 8% we are doing. We are holding the other 12% in the CU.

We've been watching this train wreck for awhile and it will get worse. We wanted to actually USE our money for things while we could.
People are not going to retire like they used to. This is different from teh GD for 3 reasons:
1. we had industry here in the US
2. we had cheap PLENTIFUL energy
3. We knew how to take care of ourselves.

Put your money in TANGILBLES if you can.

[velochic]

Originally Posted by avendesora

Okay, this freaks me out. Velochic, I've always respected what you say here, and I've always appreciated your "sit tight, selling low is always a bad idea..." comments when others are nervous. But now you're nervous!

So what can I do? DH has a good job. I have a good part-time job. We have some money saved, but it's mostly in stocks (I figured because we're young, it was okay to put it in higher risk funds, and that we would move to more conservative funds right before our kids go to college or before retirement, etc). We haven't stockpiled, but we have a generally full pantry. Our cars are paid off. We have a mortgage, but that's it. Do we just wait and see? Or is there something useful we can do?

Aven

I still say sit tight. But be aware. Most people here have time to recover if invested in the stock market. If you have cash, make sure it's FDIC insured. If you have access to a credit union, move your savings there (CUs *ARE* its members). If people panic, then the floor *will* fall out.

I'd just keep paying down debt (or mortgage if that's all you have) and when you have a little left over, do some of the things that Annethcz mentioned above. I wouldn't go out and spend lots of money on food, but make sure that you could last a month or so with what you have. If things go really wonky, diesel could spike and interrupt service to groceries.

I haven't made a *single* move with our investments. We have Vanguard and a large part of our taxable investments are in the Total Market Fund. We also have a good bit in the International Fund. I wouldn't dare touch these now. So, we are very, very diversified, but the whole market is down. There is no other place to go.

I just think it's important to not get blind-sided.

[Amys1st]

Now you all know I think of velo as my MDC big sister!!

DH just called me to get the passwords to one of our retirement accts. At last quarter on July 31 we had 110K in this acct. Today we are at 97K. So a 12% dip. My smaller accts will also have blood on them. We are still at our goal of having well over 100K by dh's 35th bday (last year) He pointed out one of the stocks in the very well diversified accts was at $55 a few months back and is now $35.

We had this happen before about 7 years ago. Granted it was less money then but we are also 29 years away from retirement so we have time to recover from the dips in the market. Also a larger principal helps. Agressive investing is only for those with iron steel stomachs. IF you do this long enough you understand this happens.

I am not in panic mode but I am also younger than velo. We also know how to live a frugal lifestyle by choice and it is killing me that I have to show more people how to do this right. Before I was LOL for living this, now these same people are wanting to do the same for worse reasons. This saddens me a great deal to see people IRL around me like this.

[A&A]

Originally Posted by annethcz

I keep thinking but I thought I'd have more time!

:

[A&A]

Originally Posted by SoHappy

It's so crazy. Definitely history-making. And so frustrating. We saw it coming for so many years. I'm sorry, but when a doofus like me can spot the problems from such range, why can't the "experts"? People wouldn't listen to me, either. "No, that's not gonna happen. They won't let it! If that was going to happen, they'd know in time to stop it!"

:

[annethcz]

I think we're going to turn this thread into a velo love fest if we're not careful And FTR, everytime someone posts a Who is your MDC Crush thread in TAO, velochic is always on my list.

Originally Posted by slsurface

First, why is everyone always talking about stockpiling food? Is it because you worry that you or your DP will loose your jobs and not be able to feed your family, or is it for some other reason?

I'm not afraid of looting, like a PPer mentioned. My biggest concern right now is hyperinflation and not being able to afford as much food. We raise and preserve as much food as we can- currently I have lots of home canned food on my pantry shelf and 40 home butchered chickens in my freezer. I like knowing that if the cost of fuel skyrockets and suddenly we're paying a larger percentage of our income on gas, I'll still be able to feed my family. I don't think my stash of food is going to last forever, but it may help us get through some rough times, and as long as I rotate through the food so it doesn't sit around for years and go bad, it doesn't cost me much to keep my pantry stocked.

[avendesora]

Originally Posted by velochic

I still say sit tight. But be aware. ... We have Vanguard and a large part of our taxable investments are in the Total Market Fund. We also have a good bit in the International Fund. I wouldn't dare touch these now. So, we are very, very diversified, but the whole market is down. There is no other place to go.

I don't know what you mean by 'be aware.' What action goes with that? 'Be aware' usually means 'be ready to act if necessary', but I don't know what actions would be necessary, or at what point would action be warranted. I'd love more info on that.

We have some of the same funds - roughly 30% in vanguard total market and 20% international, also 50% Star fund, outside of retirement/college funds. Our retirement/college funds are target funds, we're 30 and our kids are young, so those are all pretty aggressive as well.

Wouldn't now be a good time to buy, if I can? Isn't the most likely scenario that the market will pull back up, and that armageddon won't actually hit? And buying low would be brilliant, even though I'm risking the market bottoming out and losing everything (which I think is less likely than pulling up again)?

Aven

[Staceyy]

I was laid off from the mortgage industry three years ago. I saw what was happening and slowly put aside a years worth of food, moved our 401k to a money market, paid off our car, started learning to garden and started a work at home business that is paying off. I'm presently making newspaper logs for our fireplace for the winter, gathering broken branches and twigs from our yard for kindling, making homemade firestarters and will order my wood next week. I'm also going to order another portable space heater so I can lower the thermostat of our gas furnace. I'm always looking for new ways to lower our expenses.

[EmsMom]

Originally Posted by Staceyy

I was laid off from the mortgage industry three years ago. I saw what was happening and slowly put aside a years worth of food, moved our 401k to a money market, started learning to garden and started a work at home business that is paying off. I'm presently making newspaper logs for our fireplace for the winter, gathering broken branches and twigs from our yard for kindling, make homemade firestarters and will order my wood next week. I'm also going to order another portable space heater so I can lower the thermostat of our gas furnace. I'm always looking for new ways to lower our expenses.

I have doing the same thing for the last couple of years. I I wish we had a woodstove, though. that was part of my plan (along with some more insulation) but my husband has steadfastly refused to clean out ridiculous amounts of old crap where the insulation needs to be. It doesn't seem frugal to save old toothbrushes instead of insullating and making the house more comfortable, but, hey, what do I know?

[velochic]

Originally Posted by avendesora

I don't know what you mean by 'be aware.' What action goes with that? 'Be aware' usually means 'be ready to act if necessary', but I don't know what actions would be necessary, or at what point would action be warranted. I'd love more info on that.

We have some of the same funds - roughly 30% in vanguard total market and 20% international, also 50% Star fund, outside of retirement/college funds. Our retirement/college funds are target funds, we're 30 and our kids are young, so those are all pretty aggressive as well.

Wouldn't now be a good time to buy, if I can? Isn't the most likely scenario that the market will pull back up, and that armageddon won't actually hit? And buying low would be brilliant, even though I'm risking the market bottoming out and losing everything (which I think is less likely than pulling up again)?

Aven

I mean don't stick your head in the sand. Believe it or not, that is a common reaction. Some people believe that if you ignore the problem, it goes away.

By "be aware", I mean that you should be informed about what is happening around you. For example, they are calling for a hard winter in cold states... don't be surprised if your fuel bills are triple what they were last year. Have extra money set aside for that if you can. Don't rely on credit to get you through.

I said in another thread that I'm doing a little buying, but I'm buying across the board. Mostly, though, I am holding... and I'm not making any changes. Unless you have many millions, I don't think this is the time to make major moves (even in buying). Buying is good when the markets are on their way back up... not when they are on their way down.