I don't think anyone knows for sure because the long term effects of the chicken pox vaccine are still unknown. Right now the theory is that when you get chicken pox, the virus lies dormant in your body and is "kept at bay" by repeated exposure to the chicken pox virus in the environment. If we are not frequently exposed to it, our bodies won't be creating antibodies against it, and the shingles virus could re-emerge, making us sick. However, there is a theory that children with the chicken pox vaccine who don't get the chicken pox may also be at higher risk for shingles because like the person who has had chicken pox, they will still have some of the virus living in their system without the natural immune boosters in the environment. So the getting or not getting of the vaccine may not make a difference one way or another in one's likelihood of getting shingles (unless your child doesn't get the vaccine or CP- then he'd just be at higher risk for cp as an adult?), because it has more to do with the fact that chicken pox just isn't around us anymore. BUT, at least we won't have to take as much time off from work to take care of our sick children!!
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