We all seem to have slightly different answers to the CL and thermal shift question. According to the rules of FAM in TCOYF, you use only the previous 6 temps at any given time. Your CL is set at 0.1 degree above the highest of those previous 6 temps. Usually, the initial rise from O will be at least 0.2 degrees above that highest temp, so at least 0.1 degree above the CL. Then you need 2 more consecutively high temps at or above the CL to confirm O. That's the general rule. There are some exceptions like the fallback rise, stair step rise and maybe at least one more I can't remember the name of that are slightly different but still indicate O.
So, bbm, for your chart, right now you only need to consider your cd12-18 temps. Your CL would be set at 97.1. Your temp rise today looks like possible O but since it's sitting right on your CL, it's not 100% definitive. For now, you need to wait for 2 more days to see of those temps are also high like today, preferable higher. Then you can possibly confirm O. If you want to be extra cautious, wait to see if you get 3 more higher temps than today and put O for today since today's temp wasn't above your CL.
Now, just to confuse you a little, it might be ok for you to use the ROT to disregard the slightly higher temp on cd12. Then you need to consider the cd11 temp as part of your previous 6 temps for determine the CL. That would put you CL at 96.9, which makes a thermal shift and O look more likely based on today's temp. Personally, I wouldn't use the ROT unless the outlying temp was way higher than the other surrounding temps. 2/10s of a degree isn't that much, especially since your earlier temps are in that range.
I need to look up charting anov and miscarriage cycles in TCOYF again. I went back and merged all my old anov cycles with the following cycle that was ovulatory. That changed my stats quite a bit. My average O now is cd48 rather than cd26 or cd30. bleh
Originally Posted by whitekole
I have had 9 PP AFs, most have been about 30 days apart with one being 20 and one being 41. I'm pretty sure I have ovulated at least some of those times, and 99% sure since I wasn't charting yet that I ovulated 2 weeks PP. My mom had an early return to fertility despite EBF as well.
I was just reviewing some stuff about anovulation in TCOYF. It says that some women have very regular, menstrual like bleeding without ovulating. There's no way to know without charting or having blood tests or ultrasounds. So, it is possible that you are not actually ovulating in spite of the regular bleeding. My first few PP bleeding episodes after having ds2 and ds3 were anovulatory.
Also, I just wanted to say that, according to TCOYF, 18 days of high temps following O almost always indicates a pregnancy. (I can never remember if it's 18 days or more than 18 days of high temps.) That means that, if you did O on cd18 last cycle, you could have had a chemical pregnancy.
I'm thinking of overriding and putting O on CD 20. My temps have gone even higher since then, and my typical coverline lately is at 97.4, plus it lines up better w/CM. What do you think? MY CHART
MW: If I were you I'd exclude your post-miscarriage cycle from FF stats. But since you haven't O'd yet that won't affect your average O date...
MovingMomma - I would go with CD 21 myself, but CD 20 looks quite possible too. I don't like where FF has it at all.
MarineWife - I personally start a new cycle every time I have real bleeding. But I also haven't had the crazy couple months you've had so I don't know...
Here's the new thread.
I'm going to try to go through today and delete people who haven't posted in the last two months because the list is getting unwieldy, so if you fit that category and don't want to be deleted, hurry up and post.