Statistics about due date compared to actual birth date? - Mothering Forums

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Old 11-06-2006, 08:20 PM - Thread Starter
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I'm wondering if anyone knows of any statistics related to how many births end up late or early compared to the due date? Ideally, I would love to know the percentage of women that give birth in the week before, two weeks before, etc., or even down to the day. For some reason, I just feel obsessed with knowing this information as I head into my final month! Any knowledge is appreciated!
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Old 11-06-2006, 08:25 PM
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First baby on average arrives 8 days past due date. My little one did just that.
I don't know the stats other than that.
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Old 11-06-2006, 08:53 PM
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Here are my statistics, though not medical stats, they work for me!

#1 was 2 days early
#2 I went into labor on due date, she was born the next moring.
#3 was on due date
#4 was 4 days before, but induced for medical reasons

I assume that #5 will be on or right around due date.
I would love to see the written stats though. I know most first babes are a few days late.
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Old 11-06-2006, 08:57 PM
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Heres my stats
#1 day after dd (went into labor on my dd)
#2 day before my dd
#3 10 days before dd by 20 wk scan (3 days before dd by lmp)

Becky, sahm to angel.gif25/04/2000 Chloe 12/04/2002 Cameron 19/02/2004 Caitlin 28/06/2005 angel.gif24/07/2006 and Caden 14/03/2008

Xander 19/05/2011
angel.gif 19.05.2012 angel.gif 18.08.2012 angel.gif 24.05.2013 angel.gif 25.6.2013 belly.gif 04.09.2014 uc.jpg

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Old 11-06-2006, 09:58 PM
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I'd be interested in this too but for now here's mine:

DS #1 went into labor 5 days BEFORE EDD and he arrived the next day so 4 days before his EDD

DS #2 Had him 9 days AFTER his EDD

#3 I'm 3 days past my EDD and waiting

Amanda, wife to Ed mama to Logan, Phoenix, Indigo and snuggle bunny EZRA RAIN has arrived
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Old 11-06-2006, 10:29 PM
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I know how hard it is to await the correct timing but I can only say that bambino will decide and just when you think that you know what they will do you are wrong, welcome to mothering!!: My 1st 3 weeks early #2- four days early #3- 4 days overdue, so #4 should be 3 weeks overdue according to the pattern.: Gosh I hope not!!!! GOod luck to you and remember babe will let you know when he/she is ready to join you out here in the real world.

wife to an amazing hippie man, momma to many~3 DS/ 3DD  novaxnoIRC.gif homebirth.jpgcd.gif homeschool.gif
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Old 11-07-2006, 02:15 PM
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i just read recently....don't remember where...that gestational time can be genetic. i have a friend (positive of conception times) go a month late with #1 & 3 weeks late with #2. do you have any idea about your mother's gestational history? it's hard to tell, i suppose, because our moms didn't have all the fancy technology that we do (not even pregnacy tests) so due dates were flexible & i think it's much better that way. our culture is so wrapped up in a specific date & it adds so much pressure. i've been trying to forget my exact due date & stick with "mid may" even though i know the number 13 will be stuck in my mind until Baby comes out! anyway, i may do a little research on this myself because it does sound interesting.

stephanie asl.gif

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Old 11-07-2006, 02:29 PM
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Harvard study (I believe Mendelsohn) shows that average gestation in a primip is actually 41 1/7 weeks.

Remember what "average" really means. Picture a bell curve and pick that line going down the middle and that one little number is "average". Then notice how much of the curve is to the right and left of that number.

EDD is what is says. Estimated. Don't really mean a thing. Can't plan this. Let it go. Rule number 1 of childbirth and parenting.... you can't predict- you can't control. LOL
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Old 11-07-2006, 03:17 PM
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I remember hearing something about only 5% of babies are actually born on their exact due date. Don't remember if it was a relaible source.
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Old 11-07-2006, 03:30 PM
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Here are mine for what they are worth.

dc1: 3 weeks early
dc2: 10 days early
dc3:17 days early

Goldie, Mom to 5 my kiddos and forever loving on my fantabulous dh John.
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Old 11-07-2006, 05:12 PM
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Here's an abstract for a 1990 study I think it says what a pp said - 8 days longer than the traditional due date.

I was 6 days early
My dd was 7 days early

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Old 11-07-2006, 05:23 PM
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My experience

#1 induced 2 weeks early for medical reasons (mine) born on her due date
#2 17 days late
#3 3 days late
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Old 11-07-2006, 07:11 PM
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I think you also need to factor in the fact that a vast majority of women do not know when they ovulate. Or, even if they do know, the OB doesn't care and still goes by last menstrual period. Using that system it always assumes you ovulate on day 14 (which only like 12% of women do or some other low percentage I don't remember exactly). A woman ovulating a few days or a week or more away from day 14 can greatly effect when she is "over due." Just something to consider.

Rachel, mom to Jake (5/04) and Alexia (7/07) a surprise UC thanks to hypnobabies!
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Old 11-07-2006, 07:33 PM
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I've been wondering about thist too, just for curiosity. And I'm also wondering if there is a trend lately (or if there will be one in the future) of actual birth dates coming earlier and earlier than the due date, on average, due to the rates of early inductions. Do you think that'll happen? And if it does, wouldn't that skew the statistics on "average" length of pregnancy...pretty soon, we'll be hearing that the average pregnancy lasts 37-39 weeks or something, since it seems like fewer and fewer OBs "allow" their patients to go past 40 weeks even! :

How do we really know when a baby WOULD have been born naturally, if we consider the rates of inductions, scheduled C-sections, etc? Those things also skew the averages, so I don't know if any of the statistics are all that accurate at all.

A + J = Miriam (November 2006) and Raymond (June 2010)
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Old 11-07-2006, 07:58 PM
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I found it funny when talking to my elderly (guessing she is in her 80s) neighbor and she said she was 4 weeks late with her 1st and her second was due in december but came in february. at first i was like "she must not be remembering it correctly. even if she was due at the END of dec and had the baby at the beg of feb, that's still like 6 weeks past the due date!" but then i realized what someone else on here said...they didn't used to have early pregnancy tests. you used to have to wait until you were many weeks pg to confirm that. also, they didn't have ovulation predictor kids, ultrasounds, etc etc. so it was total guesswork about when the baby was conceived and when the due date would be. nowadays of course its all like you are supposed to go on this ONE day, and then you are late. its kind of silly.
i read that 90% of women have their baby between 38-42 weeks. so i would say odds are pretty good that yours will come in that time frame.
with my first i was 9 days late. however, i didn't know at the time (never really paid attention) that i always have 35-36 day cycles and ovulate around cd 20. knowing that now, i think my due date this time is a lot more accurate. if you take the fact that i ovulate 6 days after the traditional "cd 14" ovulation, then she was really only 3 days late. its not an exact science, but OBs schedule inductions as if it were :

L married to J 8 years. Parents to 6 y.o. dd and 3 y.o. ds :nana
Veggie Family
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