My first & second births were straight forward, natural, gas & air only. First was 14 hours, 45 minutes pushing - did have grade 2 meconium & some heartrate dips but I had a really supportive m/w that allowed me to move around whilst keeping the monitors on me.
My second, my waters had broken 42 hours before labour started - 6 hours before I was going to be induced. 2 hour labour with 1 push. Perfect birth.
My third is where it went wrong. I got to 5cm, labour was stalling (never happened before but in hindsight I think i had undiagnosed polyhydramnios) m/w insisted on breaking my water and instant bradycardia. (again supports my theory, i think it may have been a cord prolapse) I was knocked out and baby taken by c-section.
Baby #3 is 14 months & we are considering #4.
What's my chances of having a successful VBAC? & could you please point me towards some studies for risk factors (rupture etc)
It kind of sounds like two different questions. The first is - what is the probability of your medical condition happening again?
The second - How successful are VBACs after 2 vaginal deliveries.
From what I remember hearing, your chance of having a successful VBAC is MUCH higher if you have had successful vaginal deliveries in the past. I think the catch phrase is "proven pelvis" :)
Fun fact - The Duggar Family, celebrities in the Northwest Arkansas area, and made famous due to an American reality television show “19 Kids and Counting”, are a good case-in-point for VBAC. Michelle Duggar has given birth to 19 children in 21 years. Jim Bob and Michelle’s 1st child was born vaginally; 2nd and 3rd children (twins) were born via c-section; their 4th through 14th children were all VBAC; number 15 was a c-section; 16th and 17th VBAC; 18th and 19th c-sections.
You could also check out the ICAN site - that can point you to studies, or maybe specifics about your conditions. They have local chapters where you can meet and talk with other women in similar situations.
If you're interested in a good book, has a ton of up to date facts and stats on rate of rupture as well as other complications. Also, some good VBAC birth stories included and emotional/mental help suggestions.
It's called, "Birthing Normally After a Cesarean or Two"
Here's a link on Amazon if you want to check it out. http://www.amazon.com/Birthing-Normally-Cesarean-American-Better/dp/1906619204
I am not an expert at all, but I would say your chances for a successful VBAC are quite good. I think you will need to keep track of growth and your fluids during pregnancy (to prevent or treat the polyhydroimos). Your body has proved that is can birth naturally. Every birth is different, but it seems that are competent to VBAC.
I don't have rates on rupture, but they are generally not as high as many make out. It is certainly a risk factor, but not the only factor to consider.
FYI: I had two vaginal births, then a CS due to breech presentation and then two VBAC births. The VBACs were quicker and easier than the first two!
Best of luck.
Considering that you've had two successful vaginal births and that your last labor may have had something "fluke-y" like a cord issue (that is not necessarily likely to happen again), I'd say your chances are as good as anyone's, assuming you have a supportive care provider.
Here are some helpful VBAC websites I found when I was pregnant with my VBAC baby. The first one is my favorite:
OB RN, partner to and mama to (2008, 31 weeker) and (2011)