Hi, we haven't heard an update yet, so I hope all is well with you!
I just wanted to weigh in that I went 42 weeks, 5 days and had a 9 lb. baby totally drug-free. I did have a 2nd degree tear but I believe that was more due to coached pushing than his size. I was scheduled for a hospital induction the following day and was seriously considering going unassisted at home at that point
This time I am planning a homebirth to avoid the due date pressure, but for now I think you are doing the right thing to refuse an unecessary induction.
Remember the average gestational length for first-time moms is 41 and a half weeks, about 10 days past your ESTIMATED due date.
People have already mentioned the inaccuracy of ultrasound. But remember, also, there is no way for your OB to determine how large of a baby you can deliver. Generally speaking, babies don't grow larger than their mamas can birth
So there's no arbitrary, 9-lbs-is-too-big rule (I'm 5'4" and was about 150 lbs before pregnancy)
I would also be careful about having a more non-stress tests or US. They will just use those tests to try to pressure you into inductions. Listen to your baby's movements and most importantly, your instincts about your body and your baby. If they do want to induce, make sure you make them give you ALL the information (not just baby size but position, bishop's score, etc) There is no point inducing if you're not "inducable"
Finally, be cautious as well about more "natural" methods of induction. I had my membranes swept several times and it didn't really help things along, and it HURT a LOT! (nobody told me how uncomfortable that could be) I also tried black/blue cohosh under MW supervision, acupressure, castor oil. I think those things made me feel as though I was in control in the short term, like I needed to be "doing something", but nothing really seemed to "work" so it ended up making me feel worse (feelings of failure, why wasn't my body working, etc.) What I really should have done was take it easy until the baby was darn tootin' ready
Which is the hardest thing in the world to do!!!!!
Also remember that