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#1 of 33 Old 03-24-2009, 10:02 AM - Thread Starter
 
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I love my T.V. Ontario.

I am posting a link to a video with host Steve Pakin interviewing Matthew Simmons on the coming oil shock.

http://www.tvo.org/TVO/WebObjects/TV...90317_779455_0

I hope this video is available in the US as well as I would love to discuss this here.

April
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#2 of 33 Old 03-24-2009, 10:20 AM
 
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Interesting. I liked the end part when he said we need to learn to stay home more, live in villages again.

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#3 of 33 Old 03-24-2009, 10:34 AM
 
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That was interesting. I don't disagree with his reasoning at all. Not sure about the time line.

I like how the audio streamed when I didn't have the page up. I have DSL so its nice not to have breaks in interview
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#4 of 33 Old 03-24-2009, 11:01 AM - Thread Starter
 
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Interesting. I liked the end part when he said we need to learn to stay home more, live in villages again.
LOL! My husband makes fun of me because when I have to travel to the "big city" a 30min drive away I make sure I am doing all my shopping and visiting for the whole month in one or two days. I have stayed over in town instead of driving home and back. He laughs because he has to drive into the "big city" every day to work. It's not that far he says, but he drives a company vehicle and they pay for gas. For me I think of the $15 bucks saved on gas not having to drive back and forth.

What do you think about the theory that once consumer spending goes up again the price of oil is going to return to summer 2008 levels or more? Is the only reason oil/gas is cheaper right now because we are not spending?
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#5 of 33 Old 03-24-2009, 11:15 AM
 
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I definitely think oil will go right back up (and higher) as the recession ends. Despite the low gas prices now, we are fully planning on them going way back up.

Suzan, mama to DS 9-18-07 and #2 EDD 3/4/10 GIRL!.
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#6 of 33 Old 03-24-2009, 12:24 PM
 
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LOL! My husband makes fun of me because when I have to travel to the "big city" a 30min drive away I make sure I am doing all my shopping and visiting for the whole month in one or two days. I have stayed over in town instead of driving home and back. He laughs because he has to drive into the "big city" every day to work. It's not that far he says, but he drives a company vehicle and they pay for gas. For me I think of the $15 bucks saved on gas not having to drive back and forth.

What do you think about the theory that once consumer spending goes up again the price of oil is going to return to summer 2008 levels or more? Is the only reason oil/gas is cheaper right now because we are not spending?
I think that is part of it. This "break" we've had from the high prices will not last forever.

I would LOVE to be able to stay home more, travel less. We're planning on ways to accomplish that.

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I definitely think oil will go right back up (and higher) as the recession ends. Despite the low gas prices now, we are fully planning on them going way back up.
So are we.

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#7 of 33 Old 03-24-2009, 01:53 PM
 
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The reason oil prices were so high to begin with is b/c of the stock market. When the real estate market tanked, investors turned to oil. The prices plummeted for a couple of reasons, the number one being an over supply. Yes, people were driving less, but we also had more oil.

I do not think the barrel of oil will ever reach as high as predicted. First of all, there is plenty of oil- we just need to drill for it. My dh works in the oil services industry and he looks at the reports all the time. There is oil there, but the price per barrel must be at a certain level or is doesn't pay to drill for it in this country. When oil was at $100.00 per barrel, lots of drilling was going on. Right now, many of the rigs have shut down. As supply dips, prices will rise and drilling will start again. If we have another major hurricane that shuts down the rigs and/or the refineries (as with Ike and Gustav) prices will go up again, quickly, because of speculation. If we have a quiet summer hurricane wise, prices should be fairly moderate.

In the 1970s, gas prices were very high when you figure inflation. People never believed they would be low again. However, gas was very cheap for 20 plus years.
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I think we have had a time to catch our breath in this right now. This summer I think it will go way up and how could that not stagnate the economy or make it worse?
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#9 of 33 Old 03-24-2009, 02:56 PM - Thread Starter
 
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The reason oil prices were so high to begin with is b/c of the stock market. When the real estate market tanked, investors turned to oil. The prices plummeted for a couple of reasons, the number one being an over supply. Yes, people were driving less, but we also had more oil.

I do not think the barrel of oil will ever reach as high as predicted. First of all, there is plenty of oil- we just need to drill for it. My dh works in the oil services industry and he looks at the reports all the time. There is oil there, but the price per barrel must be at a certain level or is doesn't pay to drill for it in this country. When oil was at $100.00 per barrel, lots of drilling was going on. Right now, many of the rigs have shut down. As supply dips, prices will rise and drilling will start again. If we have another major hurricane that shuts down the rigs and/or the refineries (as with Ike and Gustav) prices will go up again, quickly, because of speculation. If we have a quiet summer hurricane wise, prices should be fairly moderate.

In the 1970s, gas prices were very high when you figure inflation. People never believed they would be low again. However, gas was very cheap for 20 plus years.

However the oil we have left now is not spewing from the ground like it once use to all around the world. It is growing harder and harder to access the usable crude. The price has to go up.

Rigs on the sea are going to get damaged from storms forever that won't change. Just imagine how expensive oil would have to be to even attempt to drill for it in the Arctic! Yet here we are fighting about who owns it.

One barrel of oil from the Alberta Oil Sands costs around $75 dollars to produce. So we have a lot of unemployed Canadians sitting around right now in Alberta. (A good thing. IMO.) Add into that the fact that there is way too much pollution resulting from there and Obama and Harper are under a great deal of pressure to come up with ways to reduce the carbon output. Carbon capture is not going to be cheap.

I think gas prices are going to go up. I think they will because no one really knows exactly just how much oil there is in this world. No one knows for sure so there will always be speculations. I know gas prices will go up because the oil companies would never pass up an opportunity to make some money on those speculations.

I think in the end it will come down to, how much will we pay for it? How much can we afford to pay for it? How much environmental damage will we allow?
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#10 of 33 Old 03-24-2009, 03:11 PM
 
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Last year when gas was 4.00 a gallon, I kept reading that gas would never go below 2.00 a gallon. Here we sit with gas being 1.90 a gallon. Much of what is put out there is inflammatory for a reason- to suit someone's objective. I have a dh who works with the people looking for it and who are paying to look for it, drill it, and produce it. These are the same people who told him Katrina would hit us dead on 16 hours before anyone else said anything; they were right then.

My point was that gas prices will go up and they will go down- it is cyclical like everything else. There are many variables that control the cost. Most people don't realize that up to a dollar of what they pay at the pump is tax. .

You are correct in that it is not spewing out of the ground- but it is there. As long as there is profit to be made, there will be drilling. I don't think that is a bad thing either.
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#11 of 33 Old 03-24-2009, 04:10 PM
 
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We are in a deflationary period right now, but it is only a matter of time before EVERYTHING goes up. Plus, add in the trillions of dollars in bailout money being created by the Fed.

We only have a small window of deflation. I am using it to my advantage to make needed purchases, like appliances, that have dropped in price. Also, food and gardening supplies. Really, I am trying to plan and buy anything our family might need over the next few years.

Imagine the cost of a loaf of bread when oil is $150 or $200 a barrel and the dollar is worthless?!
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#12 of 33 Old 03-24-2009, 04:56 PM
 
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We are in a deflationary period right now, but it is only a matter of time before EVERYTHING goes up. Plus, add in the trillions of dollars in bailout money being created by the Fed.

We only have a small window of deflation. I am using it to my advantage to make needed purchases, like appliances, that have dropped in price. Also, food and gardening supplies. Really, I am trying to plan and buy anything our family might need over the next few years.

Imagine the cost of a loaf of bread when oil is $150 or $200 a barrel and the dollar is worthless?!
:

Tankers are being used to stock up on oil right now and output is being lowered...with demand around the world increasing.
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#13 of 33 Old 03-26-2009, 01:21 PM
 
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Bumping this.

I don't think people realize what is going on. We are in a deflationary window. A LOT of people are barely making it - imagine how bad it will be when inflation takes over. If you have ANY disposable income buy for the future now. The tighter your budget is now, the more you will need to buy before inflation kicks in. If you have a well stocked pantry - lots of beans, grains, basics - you will be in a much better position in the future. Plant as large a garden as you can and put up all the extra that you can.

If I did not have a solid plan of action I would be very frightened. As it is, I still get skittish thinking about feeding 8 people on an ever shrinking food budget.
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#14 of 33 Old 03-26-2009, 02:30 PM
 
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If gas gets as high as it was last summer or higher, we will be screwed. With gas down like it is, we can breathe again, but just barely. I'd like to say that we've been saving the difference in an account, but instead we've only just been able to catch up on bills.
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#15 of 33 Old 03-26-2009, 03:31 PM
 
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If gas gets as high as it was last summer or higher, we will be screwed. With gas down like it is, we can breathe again, but just barely. I'd like to say that we've been saving the difference in an account, but instead we've only just been able to catch up on bills.
You, us and everyone else! That's what is so frightening about it - so many live on the brink. Already, people have shifted from steaks and roasts to hamburger and chicken. We have shifted to meatless meals (we eat kosher and man, that's expensive meat).

If things are tight now, how tight will they be when a loaf bread is $5 or $10 (it's already $3.50 for the sawdust stuff at the store)?! What if WIC or FS programs run out of money?
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#16 of 33 Old 03-26-2009, 03:54 PM
 
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Analysts have struggled to explain the recent surge in energy prices, especially as reports continue to pour out from the federal government showing that the U.S. economy is shrinking and its oil inventories are bloated with surplus crude.

Investors seem to have shrugged off the government data and have been bidding up prices on the expectation of a future shortage of crude oil, analysts said.

Stephen Schork, an analyst and trader, said a lot of investors are getting swept into a new run on oil stocks even though there is little to support rising prices.

“With global demand in the doldrums and the world swimming in oil, the current price run in oil is an aberration,” Schork said in his daily oil report. “We do not think it will last ... in a logical world.”

Tom Kloza, publisher and chief oil analyst at Oil Price Information Service, said the traders are jumping to oil now, but it won’t be like last year.

“This is not the beginning of the next great oil price shock,” Kloza said.

The price of gasoline, however, is traveling along more traditional lines.

Gas prices usually increase in the spring as refiners slow down production to get ready for a summer gas blends, and gas is actually cheaper now than it was at the same point in the previous four years. Kloza said the recession will keep prices low as manufacturers retrench and millions of laid off people no longer commute to work.

“We’re on the trajectory where prices will top out between $2 and $2.25 a gallon in most markets,” he said.
This reflects what I am in hearing from people who are in the business and really know this stuff- not alarmists out to scare people.
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#17 of 33 Old 03-26-2009, 04:41 PM
 
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This reflects what I am in hearing from people who are in the business and really know this stuff- not alarmists out to scare people.
It's not only about the price of oil, though. This administration is hell bent on pushing us into hyperinflation. EVERYTHING will rise in price, not just petroleum products. It's really about the fall of the value of the dollar and how it affects every aspect of our lives in the next few years.

Think Weimar Republic ...
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#18 of 33 Old 03-26-2009, 05:20 PM
 
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Believe me, I am not happy about what the administration is doing. My point is that the price oil will not be going up because of low supply nor do I think it will go nearly as high as people seem to think. I do think gas prices will go up this summer, but to about 2.25, not 4.00 or higher.

I also remember reading a lot of things similair that were written in the 1960s/1970s- much of what was predicted never came to pass. Kind of like the second ice age predicted in Time magazine in the 1970s. A great book that discusses these types of things is State of Fear by Michael Chriton.
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#19 of 33 Old 03-26-2009, 06:17 PM
 
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The reason oil prices were so high to begin with is b/c of the stock market. When the real estate market tanked, investors turned to oil. The prices plummeted for a couple of reasons, the number one being an over supply. Yes, people were driving less, but we also had more oil.

I do not think the barrel of oil will ever reach as high as predicted. First of all, there is plenty of oil- we just need to drill for it. My dh works in the oil services industry and he looks at the reports all the time. There is oil there, but the price per barrel must be at a certain level or is doesn't pay to drill for it in this country. When oil was at $100.00 per barrel, lots of drilling was going on. Right now, many of the rigs have shut down. As supply dips, prices will rise and drilling will start again. If we have another major hurricane that shuts down the rigs and/or the refineries (as with Ike and Gustav) prices will go up again, quickly, because of speculation. If we have a quiet summer hurricane wise, prices should be fairly moderate.

In the 1970s, gas prices were very high when you figure inflation. People never believed they would be low again. However, gas was very cheap for 20 plus years.
This is kind of the definition of Peak Oil. When price point dictates whether or not we drill, that implies peak. If oil were readily available, we would not be having this conversation.

In the 1970s gas prices were high because US oil production peaked AND we were relying more and more on foreign oil.

We are not running out of oil, we are running out of cheap, easy oil.

Regardless of what happens or doesn't happen with oil production and price, inflation will cause us problems.

V

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#20 of 33 Old 03-26-2009, 07:40 PM
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It's not only about the price of oil, though. This administration is hell bent on pushing us into hyperinflation. EVERYTHING will rise in price, not just petroleum products. It's really about the fall of the value of the dollar and how it affects every aspect of our lives in the next few years.

Think Weimar Republic ...
So, a related question: What should I be buying NOW with my dollars to prepare for this? (I know this might be different for everyone, but help me out with some ideas.) And, would you go into debt to buy things now, since the dollar is stronger now than it will be in the future?

"Our task is not to see the future, but to enable it."
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#21 of 33 Old 03-26-2009, 08:42 PM
 
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The price of oil dictates whether or not we drill for it here because of how much Americans are paid compared to people over seas. It is the same reason so many things are made in China- people don't want to pay more. It is not that it costs that much to get the oil- it costs that much to pay the people who work on the rigs (also the price of insurance, etc). Also, the goverment taxes oil revenue at such a huge rate that the profit margin has to be pretty high for the company to justify it.
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The price of oil dictates whether or not we drill for it here because of how much Americans are paid compared to people over seas. It is the same reason so many things are made in China- people don't want to pay more. It is not that it costs that much to get the oil- it costs that much to pay the people who work on the rigs (also the price of insurance, etc). Also, the goverment taxes oil revenue at such a huge rate that the profit margin has to be pretty high for the company to justify it.
How can you make an argument like that and not see that the price of oil is going to go up and up and up. I don't understand.

As the oil gets harder to extract the price will go up. As world demand increases the price will go up. How could it not?
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#23 of 33 Old 03-26-2009, 10:24 PM
 
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It is not harder to get out. I never said it was. We have to pay people a certain amount in this country to do the work; that means that if oil is $10 a barrel as it was in the 1980s, we will be dependent on foreign oil. For us to be self sufficient, oil should be around 60-80 a barrel, not 300-500. When oil was 80-100 a barrel, the rigs were booming, drilling and exploration were happening. The supply increased and demand went down and so did the price. If oil ever went nearly as high as you are saying, so many people would be in the oil business that it would be insane- there would be so much supply and demand would be so low- then there would be no market for it. Oil will never be insanely priced because the market could never support it. It is a balancing act that I live with every day. I am very close to this subject and get annoyed when I read information that is twisted and meant to panic people.
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#24 of 33 Old 03-26-2009, 10:43 PM
 
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It is not harder to get out. I never said it was. We have to pay people a certain amount in this country to do the work; that means that if oil is $10 a barrel as it was in the 1980s, we will be dependent on foreign oil. For us to be self sufficient, oil should be around 60-80 a barrel, not 300-500. When oil was 80-100 a barrel, the rigs were booming, drilling and exploration were happening. The supply increased and demand went down and so did the price. If oil ever went nearly as high as you are saying, so many people would be in the oil business that it would be insane- there would be so much supply and demand would be so low- then there would be no market for it. Oil will never be insanely priced because the market could never support it. It is a balancing act that I live with every day. I am very close to this subject and get annoyed when I read information that is twisted and meant to panic people.
Do you have any factual references or articles for the above? I would be interested in reading them.

Per The Oil Drum world production likely peaked last year. Meaning, we can drill all we want but we will never produce as much oil as we did last year. Barring a big find, of course, but to date no large Saudi Arabia type field has been found.

I would also like to understand why gas is still double what it cost 2 years ago. If it's not speculators driving it up like they were, and the refinery limitations are the same, why am I still paying almost a dollar more than I used to?

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Do you have any factual references or articles for the above? I would be interested in reading them.

Per The Oil Drum world production likely peaked last year. Meaning, we can drill all we want but we will never produce as much oil as we did last year. Barring a big find, of course, but to date no large Saudi Arabia type field has been found.

I would also like to understand why gas is still double what it cost 2 years ago. If it's not speculators driving it up like they were, and the refinery limitations are the same, why am I still paying almost a dollar more than I used to?

V
Probably state taxes
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#26 of 33 Old 03-27-2009, 10:03 AM - Thread Starter
 
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It is not harder to get out. I never said it was. We have to pay people a certain amount in this country to do the work; that means that if oil is $10 a barrel as it was in the 1980s, we will be dependent on foreign oil. For us to be self sufficient, oil should be around 60-80 a barrel, not 300-500. When oil was 80-100 a barrel, the rigs were booming, drilling and exploration were happening. The supply increased and demand went down and so did the price. If oil ever went nearly as high as you are saying, so many people would be in the oil business that it would be insane- there would be so much supply and demand would be so low- then there would be no market for it. Oil will never be insanely priced because the market could never support it. It is a balancing act that I live with every day. I am very close to this subject and get annoyed when I read information that is twisted and meant to panic people.
No one is tring to cause a panic. What you are saying does not make sense to me at all. Especially the bolded part. Do the rules of supply and demand not apply to oil? If not, why?

Oil will never be insanely priced because the market could never support it. Do you mean that if oil gets too expensive people will simply not demand it anymore, therefore the price will stay low?
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#27 of 33 Old 03-27-2009, 11:03 AM
 
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So, a related question: What should I be buying NOW with my dollars to prepare for this? (I know this might be different for everyone, but help me out with some ideas.) And, would you go into debt to buy things now, since the dollar is stronger now than it will be in the future?


NO!

I'm replacing kitchen appliances sooner rather than later, but this is a personal situation for me.

I'm buying staples. Rice, beans, wheat, and basic ingredients for meals. I am putting in a super large garden and buying lots of seeds. I picked up a few extras on winter clearance, ie. coats for the little boys and wool sweaters. We had a wood-burning insert installed and will chop lots of wood this summer. I'm MENTALLY preparing to go without. I'm developing local sources for milk, eggs, etc. because we can't have animals where we live.

I am NOT buying anything that we can't wear, eat or use to keep warm/cool. (That's not entirely true, I just bought a new nose ring )

I'm putting up a couple of clotheslines. We just moved in November and I've been drying inside all winter. We are putting solid tires on all the bikes so we don't have to worry about flats. Any auto maintenance and tires will be taken care of soon.

I have five children, an adult disabled cousin, my dh and myself to feed. I'm not messing around when it comes to that! We may eat a lot of beans, rice and bread, but - Lord willing - we won't starve.

I have a friend who ate blades of grass and bark off of trees in post-WWII Germany. They ate ANYTHING they could get their hands on. Not a single grocery store was open in Berlin for a year. I pray that God will see us through if we ever face times like that.
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#28 of 33 Old 03-27-2009, 11:26 AM
 
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Probably state taxes


Actually my understanding is that it is a supply/demand issue. China is online and competing for world oil resources--there are more people after the same supply which can drive up price.

This idea that oil is too cheap to make drilling profitable is odd to me. I don't know any geologist who thinks the US has enough oil to be sustainable, the fact that US production peaked means that at any price we can't drill enough oil for our needs.

I know there are some people running around saying the Bakken field has enough oil for 40 years but that's not true--Snopes, among others, debunked it.

There seems to be consensus that Saudi Arabia's output has peaked leading to a consensus that world production has peaked so this idea that it's all price point related is a little off for me.

Like I said, if you have to wait for the price of oil to go up before you can economically justify drilling that is sort of the definition of Peak Oil. Easy oil has a pretty low price point and return on investment, while hard to reach, more work to refine oil requires higher prices.

But if there's credible info out there saying otherwise, I would love to read it.

V

Happy Momma to DD (almost 3) Fall Coleslaw -- Simple Italian Stuffed Peppers -- - Fall Toddler Activities.- We Made a Play Kitchen Selling gently used books on all topics here.
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#29 of 33 Old 03-27-2009, 11:36 AM - Thread Starter
 
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But if there's credible info out there saying otherwise, I would love to read it.
I would too.
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#30 of 33 Old 03-27-2009, 11:43 AM
 
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[/B]

NO!

I'm replacing kitchen appliances sooner rather than later, but this is a personal situation for me.

I'm buying staples. Rice, beans, wheat, and basic ingredients for meals. I am putting in a super large garden and buying lots of seeds. I picked up a few extras on winter clearance, ie. coats for the little boys and wool sweaters. We had a wood-burning insert installed and will chop lots of wood this summer. I'm MENTALLY preparing to go without. I'm developing local sources for milk, eggs, etc. because we can't have animals where we live.

I am NOT buying anything that we can't wear, eat or use to keep warm/cool. (That's not entirely true, I just bought a new nose ring )

I'm putting up a couple of clotheslines. We just moved in November and I've been drying inside all winter. We are putting solid tires on all the bikes so we don't have to worry about flats. Any auto maintenance and tires will be taken care of soon.

I have five children, an adult disabled cousin, my dh and myself to feed. I'm not messing around when it comes to that! We may eat a lot of beans, rice and bread, but - Lord willing - we won't starve.

I have a friend who ate blades of grass and bark off of trees in post-WWII Germany. They ate ANYTHING they could get their hands on. Not a single grocery store was open in Berlin for a year. I pray that God will see us through if we ever face times like that.

And here we are moving towards a contract for an upper level condo in the city.

People like us will be doomed if something like this happens. I wish we could move off the grid or at least to a place where we could have a garden.

At least we'll have a wood burning fireplace.

Mama to expecting Babe 2
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