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#1 of 107 Old 04-04-2009, 04:24 PM - Thread Starter
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Alright, most longtime posters here on F&F know I'm not a big food hoarder. now though, I don't know. What has been happening over the past 2 y is very worrying. Then I was sent some article on Gerald Celente, which I haven't yet found a link, and I'm not sure if I can copy and past. But the jist can be also seen here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9nJ7LM3iyNg
http://www.truthnews.us/?p=964
http://video.google.com/videoplay?do...54511319341405
thoughts? I'm thinking of Violet2's reference to sustainable economy.
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#2 of 107 Old 04-04-2009, 04:39 PM
 
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Yeah its not looking good. Celente does tend to be a doom and gloomer though on Coast to coast.

DH is an accountant and is switching over to the "International accounting standard" by 2016 ( though I think DH said 2012.

http://www.economist.com/finance/dis...ry_id=12010009
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#3 of 107 Old 04-04-2009, 04:58 PM
 
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I dunno, what makes you think it hasn't already hit? I mean, the GD wasn't like some horrible 9/11 event that everyone slowly recovered from, it was a long slow boil, y/k? In fact, I read on Market Watch that you could compare the recent bull rally to the last bull rally in 1933. And there were 7 more years of recovery after that.

I think we're already in the GD2. The employment numbers, for instance--total bs IMHO. It's way higher than 8%, since it's a national avg, and it only counts people who are actively collecting unemployment. If you've run out, or are working a part time job, or have taken a hiatus or early retirement, etc etc you don't show up. I read somewhere that the rate was more like 14%.

Anyway, I am not more worried than usual, b/c I've been worried since 2007! If you can keep your job, the deflation can work to your advantage. Unless you want to cash out something, of course.

I didn't read Violet2's post so I'm not sure what you mean about a sustainable economy. One would hope that's what would happen, but I don't think the oligarchs are going to let it. We shouldn't be afraid IMO but angry--why have we let 1% consolidate the wealth in this country? Why on earth would they voluntarily give it up? In France they're holding managers hostage b/c of layoffs--and that's in a country w/ excellent infrastructure, worker protections, a living wage, a good education system, health care and safety nets. And wth do we have??? Yet I read letters to the editor that we can't tax the wealthy (1%!!!) b/c they "give" us jobs.

You and I shouldn't be afraid, the 1% should. They should be afraid that we wake up and demand responsible use of our tax dollars and a more progressive tax system.

OK, my rant got sidetracked, sorry. I think if you have a frugal mindset, no debt and can keep your job(s), you will be fine.
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#4 of 107 Old 04-04-2009, 05:22 PM
 
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I dunno, what makes you think it hasn't already hit? I mean, the GD wasn't like some horrible 9/11 event that everyone slowly recovered from, it was a long slow boil, y/k? In fact, I read on Market Watch that you could compare the recent bull rally to the last bull rally in 1933. And there were 7 more years of recovery after that.

I think we're already in the GD2. The employment numbers, for instance--total bs IMHO. It's way higher than 8%, since it's a national avg, and it only counts people who are actively collecting unemployment. If you've run out, or are working a part time job, or have taken a hiatus or early retirement, etc etc you don't show up. I read somewhere that the rate was more like 14%.

Anyway, I am not more worried than usual, b/c I've been worried since 2007! If you can keep your job, the deflation can work to your advantage. Unless you want to cash out something, of course.

I didn't read Violet2's post so I'm not sure what you mean about a sustainable economy. One would hope that's what would happen, but I don't think the oligarchs are going to let it. We shouldn't be afraid IMO but angry--why have we let 1% consolidate the wealth in this country? Why on earth would they voluntarily give it up? In France they're holding managers hostage b/c of layoffs--and that's in a country w/ excellent infrastructure, worker protections, a living wage, a good education system, health care and safety nets. And wth do we have??? Yet I read letters to the editor that we can't tax the wealthy (1%!!!) b/c they "give" us jobs.

You and I shouldn't be afraid, the 1% should. They should be afraid that we wake up and demand responsible use of our tax dollars and a more progressive tax system.

OK, my rant got sidetracked, sorry. I think if you have a frugal mindset, no debt and can keep your job(s), you will be fine.
I agree with you!

As for the OP, no I don't think it's over. Nowhere near over. It is just starting. The only question I have is, are we going to have a stabilization of the status quo for the short term and how long will that be? Probably not long b/c the commercial real estate collapse is supposedly in the works. And Russia along with China are openly calling for a new world reserve currency (which would be bad for the US) AND they are starting to mention that inflation is coming on the nightly news (PBS at least).

In the mean time, I am going to be learning how to grow food, as much as I can fit on my suburban plot.

The storm is building, this is the lull.

HOWEVER, be careful to always operate with facts and try to fact check particularly salient or alarming tidbits before basing any decisions on them.

V

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#5 of 107 Old 04-04-2009, 08:43 PM
 
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My brain is on vacation today so I'll just ask. What does wtshtf mean...I know the shtf part but I can't figure out the wt part of it.
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#6 of 107 Old 04-04-2009, 09:05 PM
 
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My brain is on vacation today so I'll just ask. What does wtshtf mean...I know the shtf part but I can't figure out the wt part of it.
when the...

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#7 of 107 Old 04-04-2009, 09:10 PM
 
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eek and here DH and I are trying to buy a house....maybe we should just keep renting.

Mama to expecting Babe 2
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#8 of 107 Old 04-04-2009, 09:22 PM
 
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I definetly don't think this is "over" by any stretch of the imagination. IMO what needs to happen first of all is we *NEED* to nationalize the banks and split them up into a hundred little banks again - any bank (or company) thats "too big to fail" is, IMO, just flat out *TOO BIG*!!! If we, the taxpayers have to bail them out, then obviously we've let them get too frigging huge and if we *must* bail them out we should split them up while we're at it. But of course, we can't/won't do that, cause' that would hurt that top 1% you were talking about - they might loose some of their money! And wouldn't we all just feel *SO* bad for them!?!
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#9 of 107 Old 04-04-2009, 09:25 PM - Thread Starter
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lol, when the...
my apologies, i couldn't remember the extent of the abbreviation.

here's a link to the meltdown in Iceland: wonder if the US would handle such an event so *calmly.*
http://www.vanityfair.com/politics/f...urrentPage=all

and is the US headed in that direction?
http://blogs.ft.com/maverecon/2009/0...e-uk/#more-428
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#10 of 107 Old 04-04-2009, 09:39 PM - Thread Starter
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eek and here DH and I are trying to buy a house....maybe we should just keep renting.
yk, we are going through the same debate.
we are moving to the D.C. area, to an area of the area (lol), that we love. Really hard to decide what to do. Vacillating back and forth. Started looking 3 mo ago in earnest, initially only for sale properties. Even put a bid on a home, the first weekend it came on the market. Beautiful home from the '30's, beautiful stonework, gorgeous lot abutting non-developable woods. Since it was the first weekend, the sellers didn't want to budge much, and eventually we just decided to let it go.
Funny thing now, 2 mo later, I'm sure they would have take the original offer considering how much they have dropped. Scarey thought if they would have accepted, huh? We are now decidedly looking to rent.
Rents across the US are dropping. Google dropping rents and you'll get a ton of articles in all different metro areas, even SF and NYC.

Every day I get OL, and the drops in rent/ asking price is palpable. Literally from Sunday to Sunday. Watching the market (greater economy) and the RE market (which is supposedly always local), I feel like we (as a nation) are on the very precipice..... and over the edge is a steep long fall.
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#11 of 107 Old 04-05-2009, 08:38 AM
 
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I don't think anyone here is a food HOARDER. Hoarding is irrationally buying and keeping things you'll never use and will not give it up for any reason. Hoarding is buying things in bulk during a shortage just to own it. Hoarding is negative.

Stocking up is prudent no matter WHAT happens. Stocking up is positive.

I think that there are about 9 million people for whom the S has already HTF in the past 2 years and an additional 6 million who must be feeling a bit of despair as well (the UNDERemployed). I think that what we are seeing is a minor depression that will probably last at least 5-10 years. I don't think that the economy will completely disintegrate, even if the big automakers go belly up. I think we will see some variation of the 1930's. What worries me the most is the respected economists are worried. And I do NOT think that the citizens of the US will deal very well with the economic situation. The sense of entitlement is quite astounding in the US. A huge portion of the world's population is grateful for just clean water. The excesses of this country are staggering and TBH, I DO hope this economy will at least reset some of our values.

I think some people are really getting a wake up call and some people are still completely CLUELESS. Those that wake up and take proactive steps toward insulating themselves against the new hard times we're just starting to see will be much better off that those for whom it takes unawares. Those people who are prepared already have a sense of "Back to Basics" most likely because somewhere along the line they've learned (from friends, family, books, etc.) the art of what, in MHM, we call "Traditional" living skills.

You can only prepare for the worst and hope for the best. When is it coming? Who knows? Nobody, of course. But everyone better prepare for their own version of SHTF because it may be coming your way whether or not it is systemic, national, or global.
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#12 of 107 Old 04-05-2009, 08:48 AM
 
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I dunno if anyone's heard the survival podcast, but he refers to his planning as "how to live well if things get bad and even if they don't." I have to agree. I want to know how to handle things if things DO get bad. I don't want to get caught with my pants down, so to speak, but I actually think it adds to my life even if things don't get bad ever. It's NICE to have enough of a stockpile of food that if you use a can or two of tomatoes you don't need to run out and buy more, you HAVE some in your cupboard, you know? You don't get caught without something you wanted to use in your recipe, or whatever.

Anyway, this worries me. Printing money because there's not enough money in the world to pay for our debts = higher costs of living for us (inflation). I just hope it doesn't get too out of hand, but it still is not an encouraging picture, to me.

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#13 of 107 Old 04-05-2009, 12:02 PM
 
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I'm waiting for commercial real estate and the derivatives markets to collapse. That's when I think things will get much worse. The derivatives market alone is going to dwarf what's happened so far.

I do read Celente from time to time, and from what I've seen he's been pretty accurate so far. Honestly put, I just don't know any non-governmental long term forecaster who has a good track record that isn't glooming and dooming right now. That alone should be cause for people to pay closer attention.

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#14 of 107 Old 04-05-2009, 12:13 PM
 
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I'm waiting for commercial real estate and the derivatives markets to collapse. That's when I think things will get much worse. The derivatives market alone is going to dwarf what's happened so far.

I do read Celente from time to time, and from what I've seen he's been pretty accurate so far. Honestly put, I just don't know any non-governmental long term forecaster who has a good track record that isn't glooming and dooming right now. That alone should be cause for people to pay closer attention.


what's a derivative?


I'm quietly lurking and learning because I'm worried, being a person living on the edge right now.

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#15 of 107 Old 04-05-2009, 12:27 PM
 
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I'm waiting for commercial real estate and the derivatives markets to collapse.
The derivatives markets are collapsing already. That's what started this.
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#16 of 107 Old 04-05-2009, 12:32 PM
 
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Derivatives- http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Derivative_(finance)

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#17 of 107 Old 04-05-2009, 12:34 PM
 
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The derivatives markets are collapsing already. That's what started this.
There's collapse, then there's 'collapse.' They've really only dropped so far, not really collapsed yet, though I do see what you're saying. I'm waiting for a much bigger drop than what has already occurred.

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#18 of 107 Old 04-05-2009, 01:11 PM
 
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I dunno if anyone's heard the survival podcast, but he refers to his planning as "how to live well if things get bad and even if they don't." I have to agree. I want to know how to handle things if things DO get bad. I don't want to get caught with my pants down, so to speak, but I actually think it adds to my life even if things don't get bad ever. It's NICE to have enough of a stockpile of food that if you use a can or two of tomatoes you don't need to run out and buy more, you HAVE some in your cupboard, you know? You don't get caught without something you wanted to use in your recipe, or whatever.

Anyway, this worries me. Printing money because there's not enough money in the world to pay for our debts = higher costs of living for us (inflation). I just hope it doesn't get too out of hand, but it still is not an encouraging picture, to me.
IMO the inflation of printing money will be nothing compared to the inflation in price due to resource constraints and competition. Wait until heating our homes triples and quadruples along with the price of car gas and water. That is what worries me the most and it is coming/already happening.

An economic crisis along without any other factors is survivable and doesn't worry me, with time it will work itself out. BUT an economic crisis with declining oil production, increased demand, and a dash of climate change in the form of drought in the world's breadbaskets is really disturbing.

Personally, I sift all news through the economic, resource limits, and climate change filters to shake out the true impact of factoids/data. A lot of articles only talk about one angle and don't look at any of others, imo you need to take all three together to get a good picture of what might happen.

V

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#19 of 107 Old 04-05-2009, 01:15 PM
 
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IMO the inflation of printing money will be nothing compared to the inflation in price due to resource constraints and competition. Wait until heating our homes triples and quadruples along with the price of car gas and water. That is what worries me the most and it is coming/already happening.

An economic crisis along without any other factors is survivable and doesn't worry me, with time it will work itself out. BUT an economic crisis with declining oil production, increased demand, and a dash of climate change in the form of drought in the world's breadbaskets is really disturbing.

Personally, I sift all news through the economic, resource limits, and climate change filters to shake out the true impact of factoids/data. A lot of articles only talk about one angle and don't look at any of others, imo you need to take all three together to get a good picture of what might happen.

V
You're totally right. And honestly the money printing is only the most recent thing that worries me. But the declining oil production is definitely scary, too. That and the food production issues... like the one you said, or the possibilities of farmers not being able to get the credit they need so they can plant this year... :

I'm planning to try my hand at growing as much food as I can this year... Maybe it's silly, maybe it'll be useful, but definitely it'll be a learning experience and hopefully delicious

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#20 of 107 Old 04-05-2009, 01:30 PM
 
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IMO the inflation of printing money will be nothing compared to the inflation in price due to resource constraints and competition.
...

Personally, I sift all news through the economic, resource limits, and climate change filters to shake out the true impact of factoids/data. A lot of articles only talk about one angle and don't look at any of others, imo you need to take all three together to get a good picture of what might happen.

V
*bold mine* : ITA. I don't presume I can predict what will happen. Rather, DH and I have started to eliminate things that are no longer likely to happen. It is no longer reasonable to assume the current US standard of living is sustainable.

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#21 of 107 Old 04-05-2009, 01:57 PM
 
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Here is one opinion on what the collapse timeline will be: http://postcarbon.org/museletter_204

This guy is a peak oil, resource limit writer and has several books out.

BTW it's not just oil depletion we need to worry about, it's water too. Wait until we don't have enough water.

I'm currently reading 6 Degrees which talks about climate change. At 4 degrees we lose quite a bit of the water that feeds many of the world's river and many scientists think we are now locked into a 4 degree minimum increase.

V

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#23 of 107 Old 04-05-2009, 08:23 PM
 
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I'm not a peak oil maven, so I can't comment on that.

But my gut feeling is that the administration KNOWS that we're going to have inflation like craziness within the next 12-18 months, and are going to go their damnedest to try to have wage inflation that at least tracks with the price and money supply inflation. I don't know if they're going to be successful in that, but I do think they're considering inflation inevitable at this point.

That's what we're trying to price in to our family financial plan -- and honestly, we're far better set for an atmosphere of high inflation than we are of deflation. We're still keeping up with buying in bulk and storing food, growing and providing for ourselves as much as we can. But we're also not stressing saving as much as we would be if we thought deflation would be constant (inflation decreases the value of savings) and are chosing to take on some debt (mortgage, school for DH) that we probably wouldn't if we thought that we weren't in for major inflation.

I very seldom agree with Sharon Astyk -- I used to fangirl her intensely, but have fallen out of love -- but I do agree with what she says about the "collapse" or serious change in our society: that it's not going to be a crash, it's going to be a long spiral. I think we're currently in a relatively 'flat' period on that spiral, but that things will head downward again in the fall and winter.

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#24 of 107 Old 04-05-2009, 09:25 PM
 
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I don't know. I think things could get pretty bad pretty quick. Did anyone watch 60 minutes tonight, the segment on the clinic in NV that shut down chemo b/c they couldn't afford it and essentially denied life saving humane care to the down-on-their-luck-out-of-work middle class?

There but for the grace of God go I.

Warning: It is disturbing. I cried. We bail out the banks so that people can die.

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2009/...n4917055.shtml

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#25 of 107 Old 04-05-2009, 09:36 PM - Thread Starter
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re: the "flat" period of the spiral of change... the calm before the storm? a bear market rally?

I'm also thinking that we are going to see a seismic cultural/ economic shift, in the event the the US adopts an approach along the lines of Denmark, in dealing with our current economic crises. I think though, that if this administration and Congress, continue to pass stimulus pkg after bailout after more corporate handout, that we may enter a Japan-esque like situation. Propping up a unsastainable financial infrastructure and experiencing our own *lost decade.*

http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/200905/imf-advice
I think this guy was also interviewed by Terri Gross on Fresh Air.

Re: hoarding, vs. stockpiling, this is exactly what I am thinking. Here is an article hinting at more violent times: http://www.economist.com/opinion/dis...ry_id=13405314
And I consider the economist minimally tin-foil.
Stockpiling is for reasonable times, frugal practice during rational times.
Will we soon be facing chaos? Like not in 10 or more years, when peak water hits? Or later, when peak oil hits?
But in the next 1-2 y?
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#26 of 107 Old 04-05-2009, 10:03 PM
 
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re: the "flat" period of the spiral of change... the calm before the storm? a bear market rally?

I'm also thinking that we are going to see a seismic cultural/ economic shift, in the event the the US adopts an approach along the lines of Denmark, in dealing with our current economic crises. I think though, that if this administration and Congress, continue to pass stimulus pkg after bailout after more corporate handout, that we may enter a Japan-esque like situation. Propping up a unsastainable financial infrastructure and experiencing our own *lost decade.*

http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/200905/imf-advice
I think this guy was also interviewed by Terri Gross on Fresh Air.

Re: hoarding, vs. stockpiling, this is exactly what I am thinking. Here is an article hinting at more violent times: http://www.economist.com/opinion/dis...ry_id=13405314
And I consider the economist minimally tin-foil.
Stockpiling is for reasonable times, frugal practice during rational times.
Will we soon be facing chaos? Like not in 10 or more years, when peak water hits? Or later, when peak oil hits?
But in the next 1-2 y?
Well they think Saudi Arabia peaked in 2005 and that world oil production peaked in 2008 sooooo the only thing buffering us from peak oil is the demand destruction of the economic crisis. If Peak Oil theory is right, watch for us to get smacked down by high high oil prices the second the economy looks to be recovering and demand goes back up.

I am concerned that all this is going to unravel much faster than we realize.

Economically, stockpiling makes sense since, lately, it offers a higher return on investment than the stock market. So I am not surprised to see it mentioned, it has been mentioned in lots of non tin foil publications but no one has shouted it from the rooftops like the tin foiler group.

V

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#27 of 107 Old 04-05-2009, 10:18 PM
 
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OK, I'm doom and gloomy. I think we're already in the GD2. But that being said...I think some people are going overboard. Seriously, worrying about peak oil and water? I've read the peak oil literature and agree that it's convincing, but we're decades away from it. If anything, right now there's too much oil--OPEC can't even stop supply enough to boost the price back up, which they need to do to protect their own economies. I think we have AT LEAST a decade or more before you have to worry about that, so just buy some Vespa stock and relax.

Global warming and water, truly disturbing, but the US will fare better than most countries, and again, what can you do about it? Start saving for one of those low use washers and dryers. Because the US will have water--NASA has developed technology to produce potable water from urine and sweat for goodness sake--water will just cost more than it does now. Lawns and swimming pools may become luxuries, but we're not going to run out of water in the US in our lifetimes.

There will be food. I can't believe people are really worried about this. Will you be able to get cheap off-season produce flown in from Chile? Probably not. But to think you'll have to grow your own food is going too far IMHO. Food production in the turn of the century was a lot different. No fertilizers, no hybrid crops, primitive refrigeration/storage, no global transportation systems...A Dust Bowl drought affected the entire country. Now there's a global supply chain. Food is a LOT cheaper now. Back then food was something like 45% of people's budget.

Anyway, I think we're in for some bad times, but the US has gone through boom and bust since it's inception. Some say it's part of the economic cycle. And while we don't have 1/2 of the safety net as other countries, we have much more than we did in the 1930's or other recessions/depressions, and we've had them about every 30 years since the 1700's. Each time people thought the world was coming to an end, but here we are.

So write your representative about what you think their priorities should be, save, pay off debt, live frugally, enjoy the important things in life like love and family, but don't fear the world is coming to an end.
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#28 of 107 Old 04-05-2009, 10:27 PM
 
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Originally Posted by Violet2 View Post
Well they think Saudi Arabia peaked in 2005 and that world oil production peaked in 2008 sooooo the only thing buffering us from peak oil is the demand destruction of the economic crisis. If Peak Oil theory is right, watch for us to get smacked down by high high oil prices the second the economy looks to be recovering and demand goes back up.

I am concerned that all this is going to unravel much faster than we realize.

Economically, stockpiling makes sense since, lately, it offers a higher return on investment than the stock market. So I am not surprised to see it mentioned, it has been mentioned in lots of non tin foil publications but no one has shouted it from the rooftops like the tin foiler group.

V
Oil prices will go up once inflation finally kicks in. I don't think you can say it'll be because of peak oil.

Why do you think it's going to unravel quickly? Quickly to the point that stockpiling is a better return on your money? (I hope I don't sound argumentative, imagine we're having coffee and I'm genuinely interested in your take, which I am).

The banksters are moving Hell, high water, and the next generation's tax receipts to make sure the oligarchy stays in power. An orderly, slow unwinding that serves big biz is happening as we speak, which is why I'm not concerned about derivatives. And really, IMO say that people finally get fed up and said enough w/ these crazy bailouts and let the whole house of cards fall, the only people that would be hurt are the investors. So the top 1% would take a big hit and come down to our level, give or take a million, there would be a generation that couldn't retire when planned, and a generation of retired that had their income decimated, but for the rest of us, eh, tack on another decade of earning, but other than that, so what? Yes, that would be totally suck for each everyone, but it wouldn't be as sucky as zombies breaking into your house to eat your brains and/or hoarded stash of food.

But I'm not worried about that because the sheeple are watching Dancing With the Stars instead of thinking about it.
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#29 of 107 Old 04-05-2009, 11:16 PM
 
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Stockpiling actually *has* been a better return on your money than investing in the stock market for the past 6 months or so. Mostly because food costs are rising and the stock market is falling. There was an article in the Wall Street Journal (or ny times?) back in october or something about it.

ETA... maybe it was in April... http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120881517227532621.html

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#30 of 107 Old 04-05-2009, 11:35 PM
 
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I think it's going to go quickly because the attrition of human cost and cost to communities is going to reach critical mass. Watching the 60 min piece I linked to really drives that concept home imo. Unless someone has lots of wealth reserves, a job loss in a struggling local economy will devastate entire families. I am starting to believe we will see riots and social unrest, how can you not take to the street when your mother was literally murdered by a financial collapse that rewarded banks and the ultra elite?

I also wanted to mention food was pointed out to offer a better return well before the stock market crashed, that's how fast prices were going up. Because, if you recall, the price of oil spiked before the crash and drove prices up. PO became mainstream in 2008 and I find it interesting that it coincided with an awful lot of speculation.

I hope we are decades from PO but many, many respected geologists and engineers think it is now. And further I don't doubt that PO can make the price of oil outpace inflation--PO price spikes will be in addition to inflation imo. Plus, the last major oil find was something like 30-40 years ago in Saudi Arabia. There has been nothing big enough to matter since then. I highly recommend the documentaries End of Suburbia and Crude Awakening (which won several awards) as they are succinct and quick ways to learn about the issue.

You can watch most (all?) of End of Suburbia here for free.


I think the US has lots of resources and could well be better off than a lot of nations, but I also think it's a fallacy t think none of this is going to touch us. And I personally am disturbed that other people elsewhere will starve due to the way we wield power in this world and control the supply chain.

And I am not full up on all the water facts at the moment, but I think we have this tendency to think 100 years from now doesn't touch us. But it does. It touches me through my children and through the incremental changes that happen over time to get to the big change at the 100 year mark. A 100 years from now is happening today. We may not be around for its peak, but we're marching up the mountain.

FREX California shut down irrigation due to water shortages this year, $1 billion in lost revenue, 40,000 jobs gone. CA is 50% of the US's fruit and nut supply. In a 100 years they don't think CA will be able to support large scale agriculture. There won't be enough water. There isn't enough water today. It's all connected. You can't ignore 100 years, because it the impact of those future changes is already hitting. In India, they already have to drill an additional 20 feet for a well, the water line has dropped that much, that fast as demand has gone up. Climate change will thaw the source water for the world's major rivers, which supply billions of people with water.

Climate change will bring dust bowl drought alternated with badly timed deluges of water (i.e. floods that wipe out crops or rain that falls outside the growing season). Right now, today, demand outpaces supply for grain and world stockpiles are dwindling. Right now today, 1/2 of the world's top exporters of grain have limited exports because they are not sure they can feed their own people. A large portion of the world's breadbaskets are experiencing drought. China was recently in the news with the statistic that 43% of their wheat crop is affected by drought, meaning their yields will be way down.

If China has drought and the US has drought (and floods) and Argentina has drought as does Brazil and India has made it illegal to export rice...exactly who is going to pick up the slack on grain production for this crop season? Russia is the only major grain producer without any drought and yet they've limited grain exports, which I find very interesting.

So yeah, I think you do need to garden. It says something that the Obamas are gardening and the Dept of Agriculture started a garden outside their building.

I think we could easily return to food being 45% or more of family's budgets. Easily. Food may be on the shelves, but we will be able to afford it? It's not just about availability, it's about price as well. Ask the people in Zimbabwe.

If scientists think we're locked into a 4 degree increase over the next 100 years, this means that in my lifetime we will see more and more drought, more intense storms, the coral reefs will be gone, most of the ocean's fish will be gone. It's not like nothing happens until the 100 year mark and then *poof* it all goes to hell in a nanosecond. We will be living through some catastrophic ecological changes. Our children could see even worse.

What can I do about climate change? Reduce my carbon footprint, buy local food, reduce, reuse, recycle. I can help others reduce their carbon footprint. I can be sure my family lives in a sustainable place with readily available water because, while it may not be an issue today, it will be an issue in the future and owning land with water will be valuable.

The world is not coming to an end. A way of life is. And geopolitics are shifting meaning the power chips are falling and where they land is anyone's guess. There is profound change ahead and I don't think Nasa's ability to turn my urine into potable water is going to take the edge off.

V

Happy Momma to DD (almost 3) Fall Coleslaw -- Simple Italian Stuffed Peppers -- - Fall Toddler Activities.- We Made a Play Kitchen Selling gently used books on all topics here.
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