Please check my numbers on this:
Everything is based on CDC numbers at: http://www.cdc.gov/hiv/resources/fac...t-A-Glance.htm
Males diagnosed (2004): 28143
Injected drug: 14%
M2M / Injected drug: 5%
Females diagnosed (2004): 10410
Injected drug: 20%
-Male to male sexual contact will include anal and oral contact where there is no benefit to circumcision of the ‘receiver’
-Male to male sexual contact will have both men equally receiving, negating any benefit of circumcision for homosexual men.
-Circumcision has no affect on HIV transmission through injection drug use.
-Circumcision has no affect on HIV transmission to females.
-Sexual orientation was reported correctly.
-The (unpublished, un-peer-reviewed) report of a 60% reduction in HIV transmission in Africa is a realistic value.
-The African report can be directly related to North American culture and health practices.
-All males in the calculation are circumcised.
Calculation 1) If 73% of HIV diagnoses are male, if 16% of those are heterosexual, and if there is a possible 60% reduction in transmission of HIV in this group, then there is an overall reduction of 7.01% in HIV transmission.
73% x 0.16 (hetero men) = 11.68 men x 0.60 (HIV reduction) = 7.01 men or 7.01 / 100 diagnoses.
Calculation 2) If 16% of the 27143 men diagnosed are heterosexual, if 100% of the women are not in a male-to-male relationship, and if there is a possible 60% reduction in transmission of HIV in the male group, then there is an overall reduction of 18.1% in HIV transmission for heterosexuals as a group.
28143 men x 0.16 (hetero men) = 4502 men x 0.60 (HIV reduction) = 2701 HIV ‘protected’ men.
2701 HIV ‘protected’ men / (10410 women + 4502 hetero men) = 18.1% Protection factor for heterosexuals as a group.