Has anyone seen this report (re::swine flu peak Oct 15thish)? - Mothering Forums

Forum Jump: 
Reply
 
Thread Tools
#1 of 34 Old 08-27-2009, 11:27 AM - Thread Starter
 
highlandmum's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: SE OH
Posts: 627
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 0 Post(s)
This report got sent to me in my email today (my mom is our federal representatives' local rep)....I haven't read the whole thing but freaked when I saw this::

"Following a relatively steady or declining burden of cases in August, the number of new cases will begin to rise exponentially in the first week of September,[/b] growing 10-fold about every 10 to12 days. Hypothetically, the peak incidence of infection nationally will occur around October 15, with minor variations across the country such that peak incidence almost everywhere will occur during the month of October. At this peak, perhaps 1 to 2 percent of the population will become infected each day."

Not that these things can always be trusted (um, especially coming from the gov't) but I am just freaked out slightly because I am 8 mos pregnant, have two very small children, and am DUE Oct 7. I am already preparing for a new baby, and now I feel like I need to 'prepare' for flu season early--for at the same time as the baby! Blah.

UGH.

me, dd1, dd2, ds, and #4 due March 1. dbf has 2 of his own, so it will be an adventure!

i like making things. 

highlandmum is offline  
Sponsored Links
Advertisement
 
#2 of 34 Old 08-27-2009, 11:44 AM
 
Marnica's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2008
Posts: 5,470
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 1 Post(s)
Considering that in the southern hemisphere where it is flu season right now, the swine flu is proving no more virulent than it has been all along, I can't see how the governemtn can predict anything with certainty. I think they are putting out worst case scenario messages because the vaccine will be coming out soon and they want you to run out and get it.

I hear your fear and I am worried to. I don't think there is any way to know what will happen and what this flu will do. People can speculate and assume and make predictions all they want, but time is the only thing that can tell us what willl happen.

Personaly i think preparing for any exposure to anything is something we do every day anyway. Keep your immune system strong, get lots of sleep, wash your hands, stay away from sick people, eat a healthy diet, take various supplements to boost immunity and have some natural products stockpiled in case you do become ill with anything (cold, flu or otherwise). What else can you do? I suppose you can run out and get vaccinated, but personally I think that is a very bad idea!

If the people let government decide what foods they eat and what medicines they take, their bodies will soon be in as sorry a state as are the souls of those who live under tyranny." Thomas Jefferson.

Marnica is offline  
#3 of 34 Old 08-27-2009, 11:49 AM
 
AllyRae's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: Ohio
Posts: 6,192
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 0 Post(s)
It makes sense.... The first week of school, all children who attend public and private schools are back in close quarters with hundreds of other kids. The flu, like many other communicable diseases, will start circulating more frequently, especially as parents continue to send their children in to school with a "cough and sniffle". The children then pass it on to others in the home and community.

The same thing happens after Christmas break. The reason it would be happening this year in October is because the swine flu, unlike the seasonal flu, never really went away over the summer.

I know that around here, there was a cluster of swine flu cases a couple weeks ago among children who started band practice early and among children who stayed in dorms at the local fair because they were showing their animals. All it took was multiple children in close contact for it to start spreading...now those children that were exposed at practice and at the fair are in school...

~Brandon Michael (11/23/03), Jocelyn Lily Nữ (2/4/07, adopted 5/28/07 from Vietnam), Amelia Rylie (1/14/09), & Ryland Josef William (9/7/05-9/7/05 @ 41 wks). 
AllyRae is offline  
#4 of 34 Old 08-27-2009, 11:56 AM
 
tayndrewsmama's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2004
Location: WI
Posts: 10,472
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 0 Post(s)
Fantastic. I don't know how they can be so specific on this, but I suppose I had better start stocking up stuff in case anyone comes down with anything. Here's to hoping that there's nothing that sends me to the hospital when this little guy decides to come out in October. :
tayndrewsmama is offline  
#5 of 34 Old 08-27-2009, 12:14 PM - Thread Starter
 
highlandmum's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: SE OH
Posts: 627
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 0 Post(s)
Quote:
Originally Posted by Marnica View Post
Personaly i think preparing for any exposure to anything is something we do every day anyway. Keep your immune system strong, get lots of sleep, wash your hands, stay away from sick people, eat a healthy diet, take various supplements to boost immunity and have some natural products stockpiled in case you do become ill with anything (cold, flu or otherwise). What else can you do? I suppose you can run out and get vaccinated, but personally I think that is a very bad idea!
yeah, I suppose we do too, I was just thinking we'd get more 'serious' about it this year--doing things like making fire cider and theives oil, really doing well on nutrition and supplements, etc....I just put in an order to iherb for thing like sodium ascorbate, etc.....I guess I am just frustrated because I thought we had till AFTER the baby comes...at least (like till late Oct. before needing to actually be concerned).

Oh well....I guess I should stock my pantry a little now and get to! lol

me, dd1, dd2, ds, and #4 due March 1. dbf has 2 of his own, so it will be an adventure!

i like making things. 

highlandmum is offline  
#6 of 34 Old 08-27-2009, 01:35 PM
 
CarrieMF's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2004
Location: Alberta/Saskatchewan
Posts: 8,864
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 0 Post(s)
Quote:
The reason it would be happening this year in October is because the swine flu, unlike the seasonal flu, never really went away over the summer.
the season flu doesn't go away over the summer, there's just not as many people who get it.
CarrieMF is offline  
#7 of 34 Old 08-27-2009, 01:39 PM
 
tayndrewsmama's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2004
Location: WI
Posts: 10,472
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 0 Post(s)
Quote:
Originally Posted by CarrieMF View Post
the season flu doesn't go away over the summer, there's just not as many people who get it.
tayndrewsmama is offline  
#8 of 34 Old 08-27-2009, 02:31 PM
 
newmum35's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: Pennsylvania
Posts: 1,087
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 0 Post(s)
Is the president expected to actually read all 86 pages?

I didn't realize this was a book, at first I thought it was just a "report." lol

Got to love how Vitamin D is never mentioned once in the entire report.

Just think of what we could accomplish as a nation if we poured our time and resources into using less costly (and more effective) measures for influenza. We already have an epidemic of people in this country who are vitamin D deficient, setting them up for not only catching the flu, but for more serious chronic diseases like cancer... this isn't a "what if" scenario but something that is happening right now at this very moment... where's the report to the president about this?


Regarding the actual report, did anyone actually read the whole thing and does it say anything we don't know? lol

"All that is necessary for the triumph of evil is that good men do nothing." -Edmund Burke (1729-1797)
newmum35 is offline  
#9 of 34 Old 08-27-2009, 03:42 PM
 
dessismama's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 677
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 0 Post(s)
These predictions are actually conservative and based on solid modeling and evidence from the past. Both 1957 and 1918 peaked in mid-October. The deep South is already getting hit hard as per reports from GA, AL, and LA; so are many parts of the world like India who reported over 30 deaths in 5 hours yesterday...

Apparently though half of the infections will occur post-peak, since it is expected mostly children/young adults will get sick at first, with others following later.

And I do find it criminal that vitamin D is not mentioned--getting most people supplemented now could save hundreds of lives and it is the cheapest possible intervention available. That and sodium ascorbate!!
dessismama is offline  
#10 of 34 Old 08-27-2009, 03:45 PM
 
tayndrewsmama's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2004
Location: WI
Posts: 10,472
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 0 Post(s)
Quote:
Originally Posted by dessismama View Post
The deep South is already getting hit hard as per reports from GA, AL, and LA; so are many parts of the world like India who reported over 30 deaths in 5 hours yesterday...
Links to sources on this?
tayndrewsmama is offline  
#12 of 34 Old 08-27-2009, 05:17 PM
 
Metasequoia's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: In the village
Posts: 5,710
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 12 Post(s)
My only concern is that the gov't will push the vaccine on us before then.

Homeschoolin' Mama chicken3.gifto Dd1 2/3/00, Dd2 1/13/03, Ds1 3/11/06 & Ds2 11/18/10!!
Metasequoia is offline  
#13 of 34 Old 08-27-2009, 05:27 PM
 
tayndrewsmama's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2004
Location: WI
Posts: 10,472
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 0 Post(s)
Quote:
Originally Posted by Metasequoia View Post
My only concern is that the gov't will push the vaccine on us before then.
My mom called me last night to tell me that she saw a news report that was saying that they are trying to get the vaccine released before the trials are over because they "need it now". I don't know what network it was though.
tayndrewsmama is offline  
#14 of 34 Old 08-27-2009, 05:34 PM
 
midnightmommy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: Fort Wayne, IN
Posts: 542
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 0 Post(s)
So from what I'm reading it will peak just as the vaccine comes out? Then we will be getting natural immunity just as they trying to push people to inject their kids with the shot. From what I've been reading if less people gave their kids the flu shot to begin with they would have more immunity like us adults who got the flu as kids. The danger to them would be much lower.

Mama to Gabe 8-03 and Cyan 5-09
midnightmommy is offline  
#15 of 34 Old 08-27-2009, 05:42 PM
 
FrannieP's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: Seattle
Posts: 936
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 0 Post(s)
Quote:
Got to love how Vitamin D is never mentioned once in the entire report.
Ditto.
Just saw this this morning though -

Canada Looks at Vitamin D for Swine Flu Protection
FrannieP is offline  
#16 of 34 Old 08-27-2009, 06:13 PM
 
Marnica's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2008
Posts: 5,470
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 1 Post(s)
yup...along those same lines

http://www.naturalnews.com/026921_Vi...swine_flu.html

If the people let government decide what foods they eat and what medicines they take, their bodies will soon be in as sorry a state as are the souls of those who live under tyranny." Thomas Jefferson.

Marnica is offline  
#17 of 34 Old 08-27-2009, 06:52 PM
 
newmum35's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: Pennsylvania
Posts: 1,087
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 0 Post(s)
Regarding one of the links posted previously (http://www.myfoxal.com/Global/story.asp?S=10969447)

Quote:
H1N1 spreads at rapid pace across Alabama

During a morning news conference, State Health Officer Don Williamson said the number of those infected is growing by the hour.

Out of the last 1000 flu cases they have tested, all but four of them have tested positive for the H1N1 virus.

Williamson said the state will no longer test all flu cases for the swine flu virus and adds that almost all of the people infected with the flu right now are infected with H1N1.

...Experts revealed this morning that two vaccines will be needed, one in the fall and another in January.
Say what??? I thought they were planning to give the two shots 3 weeks apart.

This is really getting very strange.

On another note, as many people here already have figured out, by the time the vaccines are actually ready, the majority of schoolkids will already have been exposed to the virus, thus eliminating any need for the vaccine! Duh!

"All that is necessary for the triumph of evil is that good men do nothing." -Edmund Burke (1729-1797)
newmum35 is offline  
#18 of 34 Old 08-27-2009, 06:58 PM
 
tayndrewsmama's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2004
Location: WI
Posts: 10,472
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 0 Post(s)
Soooooooooooooooo what the heck happened to that Flu Watch website? Unless I am totally stupid...it seems to have vanished.
tayndrewsmama is offline  
#19 of 34 Old 08-27-2009, 07:07 PM
 
laohaire's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2005
Posts: 7,115
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 0 Post(s)
Quote:
Originally Posted by newmum35 View Post
Say what??? I thought they were planning to give the two shots 3 weeks apart.

This is really getting very strange.
I wonder if they mean that there will be two totally different vaccines, for different strains. Each vaccine might have 2 shots in the series. This is just a guess though. And very strange, either way.

Homeschooling mama to 6 year old DD.

laohaire is offline  
#20 of 34 Old 08-29-2009, 08:02 PM
 
Adamsmama's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2003
Posts: 4,264
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 0 Post(s)
Just out of curiousity ... how much vitamin D would an adult take to get up to a good level? I've never been tested for deficiency but I probably am because I'm not outside a lot due to very easy skin damage (and I do use sunscreen).
Adamsmama is offline  
#21 of 34 Old 08-29-2009, 11:30 PM
 
PiesandAbrosmama's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: Leadville CO
Posts: 1,001
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 0 Post(s)
where can you test for vitamin D levels?

Mama of 4 all born at home : Mothering
PiesandAbrosmama is offline  
#22 of 34 Old 08-29-2009, 11:51 PM
 
newmum35's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: Pennsylvania
Posts: 1,087
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 0 Post(s)
Quote:
Originally Posted by Adamsmama View Post
Just out of curiousity ... how much vitamin D would an adult take to get up to a good level? I've never been tested for deficiency but I probably am because I'm not outside a lot due to very easy skin damage (and I do use sunscreen).
Here are some vitamin D links everyone should read

http://www.vitamindcouncil.org/

http://www.lewrockwell.com/******/miller25.html

http://drbenkim.com/nutrient-vitamind.html

"All that is necessary for the triumph of evil is that good men do nothing." -Edmund Burke (1729-1797)
newmum35 is offline  
#23 of 34 Old 08-30-2009, 02:50 PM
 
mama1803's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2008
Posts: 635
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 0 Post(s)
Quote:
Originally Posted by tayndrewsmama View Post
My mom called me last night to tell me that she saw a news report that was saying that they are trying to get the vaccine released before the trials are over because they "need it now". I don't know what network it was though.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20090825/...lu_vaccine_usa
mama1803 is offline  
#24 of 34 Old 08-30-2009, 02:57 PM
 
tayndrewsmama's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2004
Location: WI
Posts: 10,472
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 0 Post(s)
Quote:
Originally Posted by mama1803 View Post
Awwwwwwwwwwww........what an unfortunate side effect of all of this doom and gloom.

Quote:
The news sent BioCryst's shares soaring more than 25 percent to $12.60 as trading closed on Nasdaq.
tayndrewsmama is offline  
#25 of 34 Old 08-30-2009, 05:17 PM
 
es1967's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2007
Location: Sunny South
Posts: 1,392
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 0 Post(s)
Okay, so if Vit D is so important wouldn't the southern areas where we get more sun be less affected w the virus? This may be a dumb question but I know a bunch of new swine flu cases have appeard at schools close by me.
es1967 is offline  
#26 of 34 Old 08-30-2009, 05:26 PM
 
tayndrewsmama's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2004
Location: WI
Posts: 10,472
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 0 Post(s)
Quote:
Originally Posted by es1967 View Post
Okay, so if Vit D is so important wouldn't the southern areas where we get more sun be less affected w the virus? This may be a dumb question but I know a bunch of new swine flu cases have appeard at schools close by me.
No, not really. The use of sunscreen blocks out the Vitamin D from the body. So it's really no different than getting no sun. Crappy hey?
tayndrewsmama is offline  
#27 of 34 Old 08-30-2009, 05:44 PM
 
es1967's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2007
Location: Sunny South
Posts: 1,392
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 0 Post(s)
Okay, but not everyone uses sunscreen all the time. The sun is so strong here- we go outside for walks, out w the dog, groceries,park etc and get exposed quite a bit. I don't think everyone is slathered in sunscreen all the time. If thats the case I'm going to the beach tomorrow to stock up on some vitamin D-without sunscreen if thats going to help us. : I totally get that you would not get enough up north but I know Florida is hit hard w the flu every year. I know alot of it is from people traveling here but still.
es1967 is offline  
#28 of 34 Old 08-30-2009, 05:51 PM
 
tayndrewsmama's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2004
Location: WI
Posts: 10,472
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 0 Post(s)
Oddly, all of my family in Florida puts sunscreen on after they shower in the morning. Maybe more people do it than you think? I don't know. I believe to get the proper amount you need to have at least 30% of your body exposed daily for 15 to 30 minutes. Otherwise, I don't believe that simply having an adequate store of Vit D will make people safe from the flu. If they eat like crap and don't take care of themselves I doubt the Vit D alone will prevent them from getting sick. Florida and other southern states have a higher population of the elderly and that stuff can spread like wildfire in a nursing/assisted living home.
tayndrewsmama is offline  
#29 of 34 Old 08-30-2009, 07:44 PM
 
es1967's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2007
Location: Sunny South
Posts: 1,392
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 0 Post(s)
Quote:
Originally Posted by tayndrewsmama View Post
Oddly, all of my family in Florida puts sunscreen on after they shower in the morning. Maybe more people do it than you think? I don't know. I believe to get the proper amount you need to have at least 30% of your body exposed daily for 15 to 30 minutes. Otherwise, I don't believe that simply having an adequate store of Vit D will make people safe from the flu. If they eat like crap and don't take care of themselves I doubt the Vit D alone will prevent them from getting sick. Florida and other southern states have a higher population of the elderly and that stuff can spread like wildfire in a nursing/assisted living home.
Interesting about your family-do they cover their entire body? I do moisturize my face and it has some sunscreen. I guess the 30% exposed is important. BTW we just got back from a walk to get some Vit D. I think it does make sense to get as much fresh air and sunshine to keep healthy.
es1967 is offline  
#30 of 34 Old 08-30-2009, 08:10 PM
 
sbgrace's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2004
Posts: 9,143
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 0 Post(s)
Quote:
Originally Posted by es1967 View Post
Okay, but not everyone uses sunscreen all the time. The sun is so strong here- we go outside for walks, out w the dog, groceries,park etc and get exposed quite a bit. I don't think everyone is slathered in sunscreen all the time. If thats the case I'm going to the beach tomorrow to stock up on some vitamin D-without sunscreen if thats going to help us. : I totally get that you would not get enough up north but I know Florida is hit hard w the flu every year. I know alot of it is from people traveling here but still.
I saw a study and more than half of heavy sun exposure (well over 20 hours per week on average) Hawaiins were vitamin D deficient. And their deficient standards were quite low. Many more were sub-optimal and in reality deficient when it comes to flu protection and optimal health. My point is clearly there is more to it for many people than just sun exposure.

There are controlled trials showing vitamin D levels prevent and treat flu and colds. I did some pubmed searches a while back on it. I know the Canadian govt is doing some studies now on Vitamin D and H1N1 specifically. But I don't think there is any doubt that vitamin D level (however you get that) is important in terms of flu prevention. It's important well beyond flu as well so worth getting checked.

Rachelle, mommy to 8 year old boys! 

My Blog-free homeschooling finds and my lesson plans and link to the new User Agreement

sbgrace is offline  
Reply

User Tag List

Thread Tools
Show Printable Version Show Printable Version
Email this Page Email this Page


Forum Jump: 

Posting Rules  
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are On
Pingbacks are On
Refbacks are Off