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#1 of 34 Old 04-08-2008, 12:18 PM - Thread Starter
 
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I am having a hard time sorting out just how dangerous measles is. I am sifting through very conflicting information AND opinion: it's no big deal, kids used to always get it, my grandmother had it and so did all her siblings, no big deal, my grandmother had it and was left deaf, my grandmother's child had seizures, complications rates ARE in fact very high, etc.

What I am having a hard time is interpreting the facts of measles. Is there a way it can be discussed without anecdotal information?

What I am really wanting to know is overall (there are always the exceptions of families who did just fine with measles) how do children fair with the disease? What are the risks?
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#2 of 34 Old 04-08-2008, 12:27 PM
 
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Here's some opinions from Dr. Mendelsohn. He wrote How to Raise a Health Child in Sprite of Your Doctor. They're older publications (mostly 80s) but it's highly recommended a lot on MDC. I think he has a good grasp on what allopathic medicine can and can't help with.

http://www.*********/vaccines/mendelsohn.html#MEASLES
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#3 of 34 Old 04-08-2008, 03:44 PM
 
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"The Truth" is somewhere in between. It's about 4 times as deadly as chickenpox, and has a death rate of somewhere between one in 3,000 and one in 7,500 cases. It seems like for every death, there's one case of non-fatal but devastating encephalitis. The complication rate is pretty high (maybe one in 10 or so), but most of those are ear infections and diarrhea.
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#4 of 34 Old 04-08-2008, 04:09 PM - Thread Starter
 
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I am not sure about Mendelsohn's observations.

Here is some interesting data on Switzerland's current outbreak:

http://www.eurosurveillance.org/edit...8/080221_1.asp


There certainly seems to be a surge of measles among unvaccinated.
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#5 of 34 Old 04-08-2008, 04:16 PM
 
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Someone had reported that the "surge" was due to measles parties?? Anyone have confirmation of that?
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#6 of 34 Old 04-08-2008, 04:25 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by anewmama View Post
I am not sure about Mendelsohn's observations.

Here is some interesting data on Switzerland's current outbreak:

http://www.eurosurveillance.org/edit...8/080221_1.asp


There certainly seems to be a surge of measles among unvaccinated.
The measles vaccine is definitely effective, so yeah...you're going to see a lot more in the unvaccinated.

When you look at reports like those, remember that the milder cases will often go undiagnosed and unreported, so the complication rate appears higher than it really is.
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#7 of 34 Old 04-08-2008, 05:21 PM - Thread Starter
 
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Can anyone verify these stats regarding the outbreak?

"Let me share with you our experience with measles at Childrens Hospital Los Angeles during the measles epidemic in 1990. We diagnosed 440 cases between January 1st and June 30th. Of these cases 195 (44%) had to be admitted for one or more complications of measles. We documented the complications in all 440 cases and they included 63% with ear infections, 45% with diarrhea, 39% with dehydration, 36% with pneumonia, 19% with croup, and about 3% with other bacterial infections. Three children died all of pneumonia. "
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#8 of 34 Old 04-08-2008, 05:34 PM
 
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The Dr. Sears book says that 1 out of every 1000 people die from the Measles. I wonder why it says that?

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#9 of 34 Old 04-08-2008, 05:34 PM
 
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Reporting from Europe - there are outbreaks in Switzerland, Austria, Germany and the Netherlands.

Out of 200 people in Austria, 15 hospitalized, all released. All the ones hospitalized are between 16 and 20 yo. No child has been hospitalized.

The outbreaks are mostly due to measles parties. Most in Austria came from a school called the Rudolph Steiner School, where the majority of kids are vaccine free because they believe in an anthroposophic lifestyle.
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#10 of 34 Old 04-08-2008, 05:53 PM
 
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Originally Posted by anewmama View Post
Can anyone verify these stats regarding the outbreak?

"Let me share with you our experience with measles at Childrens Hospital Los Angeles during the measles epidemic in 1990. We diagnosed 440 cases between January 1st and June 30th. Of these cases 195 (44%) had to be admitted for one or more complications of measles. We documented the complications in all 440 cases and they included 63% with ear infections, 45% with diarrhea, 39% with dehydration, 36% with pneumonia, 19% with croup, and about 3% with other bacterial infections. Three children died all of pneumonia. "
I'm sure that's right, but think about it...it was cases diagnosed at a hospital. It's a biased sample.
The mild cases of measles are a fever and a rash. People don't go to the hospital over a fever and a rash.
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#11 of 34 Old 04-08-2008, 05:55 PM
 
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Originally Posted by Genesis View Post
The Dr. Sears book says that 1 out of every 1000 people die from the Measles. I wonder why it says that?
Because a lot of his research was extremely shallow.
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#12 of 34 Old 04-08-2008, 05:57 PM
 
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Originally Posted by mamakay View Post
Because a lot of his research was extremely shallow.
What do you mean by that? A lot of it was incorrect?

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#13 of 34 Old 04-08-2008, 06:00 PM
 
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Originally Posted by Genesis View Post
What do you mean by that? A lot of it was incorrect?
I think his book sounds like an ok intro into the topic, but yeah...he gets a whole lot of stuff wrong. He only really scratched the surface of the issue.
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#14 of 34 Old 04-08-2008, 06:38 PM
 
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Originally Posted by Gitti View Post
Most in Austria came from a school called the Rudolph Steiner School, where the majority of kids are vaccine free because they believe in an anthroposophic lifestyle.
This is the Waldorf School (it's "proper" name is Rudolph Steiner). I'm hoping my daughter picks up some life long immunity at her Waldorf School, as well.

Also, why would you admit a child for an ear infection? Or diarrhea? That seems like "over kill" on something that can be handled at home...or am I missing something?
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#15 of 34 Old 04-08-2008, 07:04 PM
 
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Originally Posted by mamakay View Post
I think his book sounds like an ok intro into the topic, but yeah...he gets a whole lot of stuff wrong. He only really scratched the surface of the issue.

Oh, okay. I have only looked at a few chapters in his book, so I wasn't sure.

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#16 of 34 Old 04-08-2008, 07:06 PM
 
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Originally Posted by anewmama View Post
Can anyone verify these stats regarding the outbreak?

"Let me share with you our experience with measles at Childrens Hospital Los Angeles during the measles epidemic in 1990. We diagnosed 440 cases between January 1st and June 30th. Of these cases 195 (44%) had to be admitted for one or more complications of measles. We documented the complications in all 440 cases and they included 63% with ear infections, 45% with diarrhea, 39% with dehydration, 36% with pneumonia, 19% with croup, and about 3% with other bacterial infections. Three children died all of pneumonia. "
Balance that with this:

http://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi...01?cookieSet=1

Quote:
Measles surveillance is complex: the patient must seek health care, the diagnosis must be recognized by the
physician, and the case must be reported to health departments. The portion of total (incident) measles cases
that is reported to health departments is termed “completeness of reporting.”
Few studies describe this measure
of the quality of surveillance in the United States; these studies use different methods, but they are all limited
because the actual number of measles cases needed to derive completeness of reporting could not be determined.
Estimates of completeness of reporting from the 1980s and 1990s vary widely, from 3% to 58%. One study
suggests that 85% of patients with measles sought health care, the proportion of compatible illnesses for which
measles was considered varied from 13% to 75%, and the proportion of suspected cases that were reported
varied from 22% to 67%. Few cases were laboratory-confirmed, but all were reported. Surveillance in the
United States is responsive, and its sensitivity likely increases when measles is circulating. Continued efforts
to reinforce the clinical recognition and reporting of measles cases are warranted.
And this:

http://www.cdc.gov/mmwR/preview/mmwrhtml/00001522.htm

Quote:
In 1989, the number of measles-associated deaths and the case-fatality rate are higher than in any year since 1971 (CDC, unpublished data). The reason for this increase is not known but could be associated with underreporting of cases, resulting in spuriously high case-fatality rates.
When only the more severe cases are diagnosed and reported, it artifically inflates the apparent severity of the disease.

ANY pathogen will appear really, really nasty if you just go by the % of complications with cases diagnosed in an ER.
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#17 of 34 Old 04-08-2008, 07:43 PM
 
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i don't understand why people worry about measels in the US--aren't outbreaks super rare?
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#18 of 34 Old 04-08-2008, 07:50 PM
 
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Well, there are moral issues with herd immunity...
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#19 of 34 Old 04-08-2008, 08:59 PM
 
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Philosophically and morally, vaccinating for herd immunity is a tricky proposition. There is currently no method of vaccination which isn't invasive. Forcing invasive medical procedures on people is a very questionable thing to do. Even if it could be proved to be totally beneficial with no side-effects whatsoever.

Consider some of the other things that society enforces for the general welfare:
traffic laws
taxation
food safety laws
seat belt laws, motorcycle helmet laws

I'm sure other folks could come up with more examples.

There aren't very many situations where it is considered okay to FORCE someone to undergo a medical procedure against their will.

Not too long ago it was okay. Remember eugenics? This the idea that the human race could be improved by getting high quality people to have lots of babies and sterilizing the poor quality people. It was very popular in the U.S. and many states had laws permitting the forced sterilization of the "unfit". Hitler thought the U.S. was super advanced and smart for having eugenics laws and used some of our laws as examples of the new statutes set up in Germany.

The history of forced medical treatment is not heart-warming.

This is why those who promote vaccination mostly prefer to use fear of disease to encourage people to volunteer themselves and their children rather than bringing out the guns and the dogs...
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#20 of 34 Old 04-09-2008, 12:04 AM - Thread Starter
 
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I appreciate the herd immunity discussion but wonder if for this thread we can just stick to looking just at measles and whether it is the threat it it made out to be.

Mamakay, some of the things you said made sense in terms of diagnoses and those that make it to hospital don't represent "all cases" so to speak. In otherwords, as i understand you, many more milder cases of measles or those not following the diagnoses path go unreported thereby making the number of reported cases seem to be substantially higher. Is this what you meant?
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#21 of 34 Old 04-09-2008, 12:51 PM
 
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newmama, you went the opposite way with it.

Quote:
In otherwords, as i understand you, many more milder cases of measles or those not following the diagnoses path go unreported thereby making the number of reported cases seem to be substantially higher.
If the milder cases or atypical cases are not reported...the reported cases would not only be LOWER than what really exists, they would represent the portion of cases that are more SERIOUS.

Thus skewing the data to appear that measles is much more serious to a smaller population segment than is the reality.
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#22 of 34 Old 04-09-2008, 01:27 PM - Thread Starter
 
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I think (*lol*) that is what i meant. I should have said that "those not following the diagnoses path go unreported thereby making the number of reported cases seem to be substantially MORE DEADLY"

By deadly, I don't mean it in terms of the morbidity rate being higher but those cases that do exist to be more dangerous. If only 10 cases follow the proper diagnoses and of those 8 land in the hospital, it looks like a very serious dangerous disease. However, if 10 cases get reported but 50 cases are not properly diagnosed, then 8 out of 58 looks a whole lot different.

Is this what I mean? *lol* and what you both mean?
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#23 of 34 Old 04-09-2008, 01:32 PM
 
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Exactly!

hahaha it's funny how what you want to say on the computer sometimes comes across as something totally different.
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#24 of 34 Old 04-09-2008, 01:39 PM - Thread Starter
 
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So back to this quote:
Quote:
"Let me share with you our experience with measles at Childrens Hospital Los Angeles during the measles epidemic in 1990. We diagnosed 440 cases between January 1st and June 30th. Of these cases 195 (44%) had to be admitted for one or more complications of measles. We documented the complications in all 440 cases and they included 63% with ear infections, 45% with diarrhea, 39% with dehydration, 36% with pneumonia, 19% with croup, and about 3% with other bacterial infections. Three children died all of pneumonia. "
Due to the high vaccination rate with MMR, I am wondering how many could have actually gone undiagnosed. Because if there weren't that many, the complications rate does seem very high to me. Although as someone pointed out, it's questionable as children are not usually admitted to the hospital with ear infections. And nothing was said about the nature of diarrhea and dehydration - how serious the cases were and if they were responding to treatment easily which to me would make a huge difference in qualifying the cases allegedly admitted to the hospital.
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#25 of 34 Old 04-09-2008, 03:31 PM
 
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Due to the high vaccination rate with MMR, I am wondering how many could have actually gone undiagnosed
That paper I linked to on the first page said it could have been as low as only 3% that were diagnosed/reported. This was in the days of one dose of the MMR, which might only be about 50% effective. So there might have been hundreds of thousands or millions of cases during the late 80's-early 90's epidemic.
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#26 of 34 Old 04-09-2008, 05:19 PM
 
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Originally Posted by ZoeyZoo View Post
Here's some opinions from Dr. Mendelsohn. He wrote How to Raise a Health Child in Sprite of Your Doctor. They're older publications (mostly 80s) but it's highly recommended a lot on MDC. I think he has a good grasp on what allopathic medicine can and can't help with.

http://www.*********/vaccines/mendelsohn.html#MEASLES
I thought this was pretty interesting.
Quote:
"Why," you may ask, "in the face of these facts, do doctors continue to give the shots?" The answer may lie in an episode that occurred in California fourteen years after the measles vaccine was introduced. Los Angeles suffered a severe measles epidemic during that year, and parents were urged to vaccinate all children six months of age and older-despite a Public Health Service warning that vaccinating children below the age of one year was useless and potentially harmful.

Although Los Angeles doctors responded by routinely shooting measles vaccine into very kid they could get their hands on, several local physicians familiar with the suspected problems of immunologic failure and "slow virus" dangers chose not to vaccinate their own infant children. Unlike their patients, who weren't told, they realized that "slow viruses" found in all live vaccines, and particularly in the measles vaccine, can hide in human tissue for years. They may emerge later in the form of encephalitis, multiple sclerosis, and as potential seeds for the development and growth of cancer.

One Los Angeles physician who refused to vaccinate his own seven-month-old baby said: "I'm worried about what happens when the vaccine virus may not only offer little protection against measles but may also stay around in the body, working in a way we don't know much about." His concern about the possibility of these consequences for his own child, however, did not cause him to stop vaccinating his infant patients. He rationalized this contradictory behaviour with the comment that "As a parent, I have the luxury of making a choice for my child. As a physician... legally and professionally I have to accept the recommendations of the profession, which is what we also had to do with the whole Swine flu business."
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#27 of 34 Old 04-09-2008, 05:24 PM - Thread Starter
 
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Mamakay, so for the original quote, even though the reference was for LA, this LA outbreak was part of the outbreak that occurred between 1980 and 1990. So the part of the quote you posted
Quote:
Estimates of completeness of reporting from the 1980s and 1990s vary widely, from 3% to 58%
would apply if you look at the LA hospital rates in relation to what was happening nationally at the time. ?
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#28 of 34 Old 04-09-2008, 05:27 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by anewmama View Post
Mamakay, so for the original quote, even though the reference was for LA, this LA outbreak was part of the outbreak that occurred between 1980 and 1990. So the part of the quote you posted would apply if you look at the LA hospital rates in relation to what was happening nationally at the time. ?
Right.
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#29 of 34 Old 04-09-2008, 05:38 PM
 
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Okay, so they are saying we have an outbreak of measles in the Milwaukee area. One adult and one child. They are thinking the adult was sick about a week or more before the child. 12 or more exposed childred are in quarantine for two weeks.

They have frequently refered to the '89-'90 outbreak in the state. If IRC, they said that about 1,600 people became ill with the measles, 200 people were hospitalized and 5 died. What got me was the 5 out 1,600 died. That is much higher than the 1 in 1,000 rate. I am thinking, as mentioned before, that there are a lot of people who aren't going to seek medical attention for a rash and a fever if they are managing to get through it. I am also wondering what role the poor state of healthcare coverage might play in the stats as well. We know there are people who get sick and really should see a doc and don't because they can't afford it. So, they suffer through it. I am sure there are plenty more who are moderately sick at times who either have no insurance or poor insurance who deal with it. And what about the people who are smart enough to figure out what they are sick with and know the media will have a hayday with it and choose to self-medicate behind closed doors?
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#30 of 34 Old 04-09-2008, 08:32 PM
 
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Death from Measles (going to Wendy Lydall's book, mayoclinic.com, and I believe Aviva Jill Romm's book) comes from a few things complications (usually from improper treatment but not always), or it hits in an immunocompromised person, or an infant. Remember that people have had Measles for decades as a "rite of passage," same with Mumps. THe majority came out okay because back in those days, a lot of natural wisdom knew how to deal with it properly. A lot more people came through well vs. those who died, same with Chicken Pox. Personally, I wouldn't mind ds contracting Measles, as long as he was older....5 and up maybe. Measles parties are no different then CP parties, exposure can lead to natural immunity and as long as the parents are educated on what to expect and how to treat, the vast majority will come out well.

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