New York Times Article on the Whooping Cough Outbreack in Washington State. - Page 2 - Mothering Forums

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#31 of 49 Old 05-15-2012, 08:39 AM
 
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lol.gif  No problem. It all makes sense now. 
 

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#32 of 49 Old 05-15-2012, 10:43 AM
 
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The plural of anecdote is not data.

At some point, many anecdotes that tell the same thing might be worth considering.  You have to consider the source, blah,blah, blah, but I do not dismiss all anecdotes.

 

Ex:  Dh works in an office with about 40 people.  These are people who vaccinate their kids and are pretty mainstream.  Many of then noticed that every time they got a flu shot they became sick afterwards (and most got the shot 2 or 3 year running - thinking the other "time" was a coincidence")
 

Is that good enough for the scientific community?  Probably not.  I understand why and the burden of proof (which should involve large scale double blind studies) is not met.

 

Is it good enough to give me pause?  Absolutely.

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#33 of 49 Old 05-15-2012, 10:49 AM
 
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The statistic that "most people who get infected are fully vaccinated" is completely worthless, a total red herring, and akin to saying "the sky is blue.". It belies a total misunderstanding of statistics and relative risk at best and is intentionally misleading at worst.

 

Why the nasty tone above?

 

I think the below point illustrates what you are trying to say (which I mostly agree with, btw) without being so dismissive.  

 

 

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I'm not saying the statement is wrong, it's just not very meaningful. It's absolutely expected that the majority of people who get infected in an outbreak are vaccinated. Even with highly effective vaccines that's the case.
Think about a 1000 student high school. Someone comes to school with pertussis. Assume the pertussis vaccine is 90% effective (in reality I think it's 80-95%, but that's from memory so take it with a grain of salt.). Say 95% of the students are vaccinated.
Of the 950 vaccinated students we would expect around ten percent, or 95 of them to still get pertussis. Even I all 50 unvaccinated students get it, still the majority of cases are in vaccinated students. 

 

I think part of the reason non-vaxxers like to point out that more vaxxers have the disease than unvaxxed often stems from the fact that disease outbreaks in mainstream media are often blamed on the unvaxxed.  With pertussis in particular, this is not the case.  Most of the people who spread the disease are vaxxed.  It is no one fault, really (and this whole trying to find out whose fault it is for a disease outbreak strikes me as witch-hunty anyways).  Pertussis is simply not a very effective vaccine.  It is 59-89% percent effective:     http://www.immunizationinfo.org/vaccines/pertussis-whooping-cough

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#34 of 49 Old 05-15-2012, 01:14 PM
 
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At some point, many anecdotes that tell the same thing might be worth considering.  You have to consider the source, blah,blah, blah, but I do not dismiss all anecdotes.

 

Ex:  Dh works in an office with about 40 people.  These are people who vaccinate their kids and are pretty mainstream.  Many of then noticed that every time they got a flu shot they became sick afterwards (and most got the shot 2 or 3 year running - thinking the other "time" was a coincidence")
 

Is that good enough for the scientific community?  Probably not.  I understand why and the burden of proof (which should involve large scale double blind studies) is not met.

 

Is it good enough to give me pause?  Absolutely.

That happened to my husband. EVERY time he got the flu shot he ended up sick with actual flu. Finally he stopped getting the shot and he hasn't had the flu since (its been @ 6 years too!). It would be interesting to find out why this happens to some but not others.


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#35 of 49 Old 05-15-2012, 01:28 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kathymuggle View Post

At some point, many anecdotes that tell the same thing might be worth considering.  You have to consider the source, blah,blah, blah, but I do not dismiss all anecdotes.

 

Ex:  Dh works in an office with about 40 people.  These are people who vaccinate their kids and are pretty mainstream.  Many of then noticed that every time they got a flu shot they became sick afterwards (and most got the shot 2 or 3 year running - thinking the other "time" was a coincidence")
 

Is that good enough for the scientific community?  Probably not.  I understand why and the burden of proof (which should involve large scale double blind studies) is not met.

 

Is it good enough to give me pause?  Absolutely.

That happened to my husband. EVERY time he got the flu shot he ended up sick with actual flu. Finally he stopped getting the shot and he hasn't had the flu since (its been @ 6 years too!). It would be interesting to find out why this happens to some but not others.

 

Eh. Not all vaxers get the flu vax. I don't, neither does my ds. We just skip it and take our chances.

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#36 of 49 Old 05-15-2012, 05:18 PM
 
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Eh. Not all vaxers get the flu vax. I don't, neither does my ds. We just skip it and take our chances.

 

Why?  I mean, you're pretty vehement about herd immunity, the safety of vaxes, and the efficacy of them, so why is all that applicable to everything BUT the flu shot?  I'm genuinely curious why "we just skip it and take our chances" is ok for you, but seemingly unacceptable for everyone else who says that about different vaccines.

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#37 of 49 Old 05-15-2012, 05:21 PM
 
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Lots of people feel the flu shot is different. The efficacy is much more hit or miss, for one. For another, right or wrong, I think it's kind of how our brain handles the risks of flying vs riding in a car. We're used to the flu and are more comfortable with the risk than other diseases.

I haven seen anyone say someone else's choices were unacceptable.
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#38 of 49 Old 05-15-2012, 05:37 PM
 
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Lots of people feel the flu shot is different. The efficacy is much more hit or miss, for one. For another, right or wrong, I think it's kind of how our brain handles the risks of flying vs riding in a car. We're used to the flu and are more comfortable with the risk than other diseases.
I haven seen anyone say someone else's choices were unacceptable.

 

I wasn't asking you.

 

"We're used to the flu", and yet we're told year after year that tens of thousands of Americans DIE every year from the flu!  So get your flu shot!  From the same companies and organizations that push every other shot.  Tens of thousands die, and we're more comfortable with the risk than other diseases where the risk is practically zero (polio, diphtheria)?  Sorry, that reeks of hypocrisy to me.

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#39 of 49 Old 05-15-2012, 05:49 PM
 
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I wasn't claiming it was rational, hence the comparison to Flying vs driving. I dont know about hypocritical, but i can see how you would think it was inconsistent.

and no need to be rude. I assume questions on a public discussion forum are up for grabs.
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#40 of 49 Old 05-15-2012, 05:56 PM
 
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I wasn't claiming it was rational, hence the comparison to Flying vs driving. I dont know about hypocritical, but i can see how you would think it was inconsistent.
and no need to be rude. I assume questions on a public discussion forum are up for grabs.

 

Yes, but I think it was pretty obvious that I was asking a specific poster a question.

 

It IS hypocritical, and "lots of people feel the flu shot is different" is an anecdote, isn't it?

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#41 of 49 Old 05-15-2012, 06:01 PM
 
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And I assume they can still answer, right?

No, it's not an anecdote. It's a summary of data, although a rather off the cuff one. I'm also not prescribing any value that those people are right or wrong, but the coverage rate for the flu shot is drastically different than other vaccines. Lots of people obviously think its different.
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#42 of 49 Old 05-16-2012, 02:43 AM - Thread Starter
 
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In the UK flu vaccines are only recommended for those at particular risk if they got flu (the elderly, asthmatics etc - not sure of the full list). 

 

I shouldn't add to the anecdotes, but every time I got the flu shot (when I lived in the and could easilly get it) I was much healthier for that winter season. 


Mother of two living in UK. Daughter (2007) born in USA, son (2010) born here. I'm pro natural birth, midwife care, breastfeeding, co-sleeping, baby wearing and a keen advocate of cloth diapering. I'm a full time working research scientist (physical sciences) and I'm pro-vaccine.

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#43 of 49 Old 05-16-2012, 06:02 AM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Super~Single~Mama View Post

 

Eh. Not all vaxers get the flu vax. I don't, neither does my ds. We just skip it and take our chances.

 

Why?  I mean, you're pretty vehement about herd immunity, the safety of vaxes, and the efficacy of them, so why is all that applicable to everything BUT the flu shot?  I'm genuinely curious why "we just skip it and take our chances" is ok for you, but seemingly unacceptable for everyone else who says that about different vaccines.

 

Because herd immunity from Strain of the year doesn't protect anyone from Uh Oh We Didn't Know THAT Strain was coming!

 

Measles is measles is measles. Polio is polio is polio. I want there to be herd immunity from those and other illnesses that are vaxed for. We get all other vaxes. The flu vax is different most years (this year being the exception), and doesn't always accurately predict which flu virus is going to go around. So we skip it and take our chances (been a long time since we got the flu).

 

And, for the record, I have said a million times (ON THIS FORUM) that I don't give a damn if anyone else vaxes or not, for whatever reasons they have, I believe in freedom of choice. I believe herd immunity works, and I think those who choose not to vax benefit from it. But I don't care if you vax or not. I'm a vaxer, not a vax dictator.

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#44 of 49 Old 05-16-2012, 06:56 AM
 
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Because herd immunity from Strain of the year doesn't protect anyone from Uh oh We Didn't Know THAT Strain was coming!

I don't agree with the herd immunity theory, but I REALLY like the way you put this! orngbiggrin.gif
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.But I don't care if you vax or not. I'm a vaxer, not a vax dictator.

I really like this, too.
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#45 of 49 Old 05-16-2012, 07:08 AM
 
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Because herd immunity from Strain of the year doesn't protect anyone from Uh Oh We Didn't Know THAT Strain was coming!

 

Measles is measles is measles. Polio is polio is polio. I want there to be herd immunity from those and other illnesses that are vaxed for. We get all other vaxes. The flu vax is different most years (this year being the exception), and doesn't always accurately predict which flu virus is going to go around. So we skip it and take our chances (been a long time since we got the flu).

 

And, for the record, I have said a million times (ON THIS FORUM) that I don't give a damn if anyone else vaxes or not, for whatever reasons they have, I believe in freedom of choice. I believe herd immunity works, and I think those who choose not to vax benefit from it. But I don't care if you vax or not. I'm a vaxer, not a vax dictator.

 

This all makes a lot of sense.  Thank you for explaining.


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#46 of 49 Old 05-16-2012, 07:27 AM
 
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I'm coming into this late, and just wanted to point out that the article's comments from state officials focussing the blame on unvaccinated individuals seems to contradict the Skagit county official who said that it seemed 80-90% of the cases she is seeing in her county seem to be up-to-date on their immunizations.   Still haven't tried posting links, maybe someone else can do it.


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#47 of 49 Old 05-16-2012, 07:37 AM
 
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I think those comments are related to the idea that pertussis persists because vaccination rates are to low and that unvaccinated people are more likely to pass it on that vaccinated people, even if vaccinated people get sick.  I realize those statements are contentious, but I believe that is the reason for the conflict.

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#48 of 49 Old 05-16-2012, 07:55 AM
 
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It seems then, though, that mass vaccinations aren't necessarily the best response, if so many people with the vaccinations are also developing cases of it as well.  

 

This is an entirely anecdotal comment, but I think people can put too much stock in the their immunity from vaccinations or from having had a disease.  Vaccinated folks (or those who have had the disease) might be less careful when faced with an outbreak.  I would *assume* that folks that intentional not vax would be very, very careful in those cases (chicken pox excepting).  

 

And just in case this comes up, like in another thread, WA has a relatively liberal Medicaid program for kids.  (I'm a WA resident, and my kids are on Medicaid.)

 

BTW, I'm not a non-vaxxer in practice, just a raging skeptic.... and I'm not satisfied with the state's bottom line on this one.

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#49 of 49 Old 05-16-2012, 08:06 AM
 
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Mass vaccinations are an effective way of controlling the disease. Thats why outbreaks often correlate geographically with clusters of unvaccinated people. I agree that it would be best if people understood risk better and took proper precautions with all illnesses, regardless of vaccine status, but I don't think that means we should throw the baby out with the bath water.
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