When 1 in 88 is really 1 in 29 - Mothering Forums

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#1 of 4 Old 06-28-2012, 10:15 AM - Thread Starter
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Estimated rates of autism among U.S. children in 2012:

  • 7 year olds – 1 in 48
  • 6 year olds – 1 in 42
  • 5 year olds – 1 in 37
  • 4 year olds – 1 in 33
  • 3 year olds – 1 in 29

Extrapolating out for the next ten years at the same 13% yearly increase, the predicted rate of autism among 3 year-olds…

  • 2013 = 1 in 26
  • 2014 = 1 in 23
  • 2015 = 1 in 20
  • 2016 = 1 in 18
  • 2017 = 1 in 16
  • 2018 = 1 in 14
  • 2019 = 1 in 12
  • 2020 = 1 in 11
  • 2021 = 1 in 10
  • 2022 = 1 in 9

Sobering.  Isn’t it?





"If you find from your own experience that something is a fact and it contradicts what some authority has written down, then you must abandon the authority and base your reasoning on your own findings"~ Leonardo da Vinci

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#2 of 4 Old 06-28-2012, 11:44 AM
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#3 of 4 Old 06-28-2012, 12:24 PM
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The maths in that article is very "inventive" (which is me trying to be polite when I point out it's nonesense).


You can't extrapolate figures like that. You can't take a percentage increase over 6 years, divide it by 6 to get an annual increase and then use it to extrapolate 10 years into the future.  

Mother of two living in UK. Daughter (2007) born in USA, son (2010) born here. I'm pro natural birth, midwife care, breastfeeding, co-sleeping, baby wearing and a keen advocate of cloth diapering. I'm a full time working research scientist (physical sciences) and I'm pro-vaccine.

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#4 of 4 Old 06-29-2012, 09:55 AM
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Originally Posted by Mirzam View Post



  • 2021 = 1 in 10
  • 2022 = 1 in 9

Sobering.  Isn’t it?


If there is any "good news" in this engineered tragedy it may be this.


"As the children go to sleep the parents wake up."

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