Chicken pox down 80% since 2000 - Page 2 - Mothering Forums
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#31 of 43 Old 09-27-2012, 09:00 AM
 
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Question if the chicken pox vaccine supposedly reduce kids getting chicken pox like up to 18. So would it down the road show more of an increase in chicken pox in adults between both vaccinated and not vaccinated kids ?

 

Would the kids who were vaccinated and it comes ineffective at an certain age would they end up with just shingles ?

 

Also,with less kids being around to expose other kids to chicken pox the natural way are they going to be more likely to avoid shingles because no exposure or will they have a risk of pox happening as adults once the other vaxes wear off.

 

I do know with a cousin of mine whose niece had the vax she still got pox and then that same cousin ended up with pox at age 19. A very bad case of it.

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#32 of 43 Old 09-27-2012, 11:52 AM - Thread Starter
 
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I don't think disease rates are as simple as collectinng statistics of diagnosis from every single doctor in the country. I think it's a lot more complicated (and therefore I agree prone to error), based on representative samples of the population. Not my field though. 


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#33 of 43 Old 09-27-2012, 12:01 PM - Thread Starter
 
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This report from 2000 cites a US study which showed varicella vaccine lasted at least 11 years, and a Japanese study that suggests it last 20 years. 

 

http://pediatrics.aappublications.org/content/105/1/136.full.pdf

 

However it does discuss that this may be due to "boosters" from wild CP circulating in the population (which would also help maintain immunity gained from catching the full disease) so may not be applicable now in the US where there is much less wild CP around. 


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#34 of 43 Old 09-27-2012, 12:13 PM - Thread Starter
 
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It also talks about the risks of increasing shingles - particularly that the research shows if immunization rates are high varicella is reduced in both children and adults (although relatively more adults will be effected). It's only at relativelt low vaccination take-up rates that you get more adults susceptible to getting varicella and a significant increase in adult shingles occurs.  Or at least so this argues: http://pediatrics.aappublications.org/content/105/1/136.full.pdf


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#35 of 43 Old 09-27-2012, 08:55 PM
 
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My son's elementary school had a chicken pox outbreak. When I spoke with the nurse from the county health department, she told me that I was the 67th parent she had had to contact for questionnaires (how many pock marks, how high the fever was, how long the illness lasted, etc.). THIS WAS OUT OF A SCHOOL WITH FEWER THAN 180 CHILDREN.  And when she talked with me, the outbreak was not yet over, so who knows how many children were actually affected.

 

Nearly every child in that school (including my son) had been vaccinated for chicken pox.  Since this was an elementary school, obviously immunity did not last 11 years.

 

In addition, this was completely hushed up.  The news did not report it.  The school did not contact parents to warn them that such an outbreak was occurring until a group of parents went to see the principal, and insisted that she do so for the safety of family members who might be undergoing chemo or steroid treatment for autoimmune disorders.  

The communique that was finally sent said, "A few children have come down with mild cases of chicken pox, but there is nothing to worry about."

 

A few children?  Well over a third of the school, and they said, "a few children?"  And the news refused to cover it?  Do you think there were any scientific studies that acknowledged those cases, if it was never even reported in the news?

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#36 of 43 Old 09-27-2012, 09:01 PM
 
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A few children?  Well over a third of the school, and they said, "a few children?"  And the news refused to cover it?  Do you think there were any scientific studies that acknowledged those cases, if it was never even reported in the news?

 

How do you know that they refused to cover it?  Were they notified?  Are you in an area where that would be considered news-worthy?  Was anyone specifically told that it was not to be covered by the local media?

 

Personally, if I was in charge of a news station I would not put on an article about chicken pox unless it was a horrendously slow news day. 

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#37 of 43 Old 09-28-2012, 06:22 AM
 
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How do you know that they refused to cover it?  Were they notified?  Are you in an area where that would be considered news-worthy?  Was anyone specifically told that it was not to be covered by the local media?

 

Personally, if I was in charge of a news station I would not put on an article about chicken pox unless it was a horrendously slow news day. 

I know two reporters. I personally notified both of them.  They each said that they were told not to cover it.  They were not told why. They were as taken aback as I was.

 

In our town, over 1/3 of an elementary school coming down with chicken pox would be news, especially considering that, at the time, the local news stations and newspapers were reporting FLU cases--and then adding that flu shots were available at grocery stores, pharmacy chain stores, K-Mart, Wal-Mart, Target, and various school "flu shot clinics."

 

in other words, they were fear-mongering about flu cases in order to sell flu shots, but NOT reporting on chicken pox cases (which vastly outnumbered the confirmed flu cases) which were occuring in children who'd been vaccinated for chicken pox.

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#38 of 43 Old 09-28-2012, 06:44 AM
 
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Did anyone ever write anything in the 'Opinion" section of the local newspaper to make the public aware of this?  If not, it's never too late. 

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I know two reporters. I personally notified both of them.  They each said that they were told not to cover it.  They were not told why. They were as taken aback as I was.

 

In our town, over 1/3 of an elementary school coming down with chicken pox would be news, especially considering that, at the time, the local news stations and newspapers were reporting FLU cases--and then adding that flu shots were available at grocery stores, pharmacy chain stores, K-Mart, Wal-Mart, Target, and various school "flu shot clinics."

 

in other words, they were fear-mongering about flu cases in order to sell flu shots, but NOT reporting on chicken pox cases (which vastly outnumbered the confirmed flu cases) which were occuring in children who'd been vaccinated for chicken pox.

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#39 of 43 Old 09-28-2012, 10:53 AM
 
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Did anyone ever write anything in the 'Opinion" section of the local newspaper to make the public aware of this?  If not, it's never too late. 

I agree it's worth a try, but the problem is that media outlets operate on advertising revenue, and the medical community likes to play dirty. I know this from personal experience. My husband has been in the newspaper publishing business for 16 years, in several cities. The doctors and hospitals are a huge source of profits, and they do not hesitate to threaten to pull whenever the content conflicts with their marketing messages.

In other words, write all the opinion pieces you want, but don't expect it to get published if it casts a negative light on mainstream medicine. You might luck out.

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#40 of 43 Old 09-29-2012, 12:49 PM
 
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Doctors dont even diagnose chicken pox anymore. My friends DD had it, and it took 2 doctors and 3 visits to diagnose the chicken pox. They didnt want to believe she had it because she was vaccinated. They said allergies, or some other viral illness. I saw the marks, it was clearly chicken pox. So I dont know how true that 80% reduction really is. 

 

I've heard of this happening with measles, too. I have no idea how often it happens, or how much it affects the stats. (Actually, there was a lot of diagnostic weirdness with H1N1, too, but in the opposite direction...people were diagnosed without there being any solid evidence that it was H1N1.)

 

I do think the varicella vaccine works (not 100%, but nobody seriously believes vaccine are 100% effective, no matter how much the marketing strategy glosses over that and makes it sound that way). I just would have rather had my chlidren catch wild pox than get the vaccine. I'll be honest, though - I didn't get there through science. I got there through my strong belief that we don't know enough, and we don't know what we don't know. I prefer not to mess with things, unless I have to. I know I'm rolling the dice with trying for wild pox, and my kids could be one of the small fraction that have serious complications, but I know what dice I'm rolling. I don't know what the dice are with vaccines. That's really what it boils down to, for me.


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#41 of 43 Old 09-29-2012, 01:23 PM
 
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Ey
I agree it's worth a try, but the problem is that media outlets operate on advertising revenue, and the medical community likes to play dirty. I know this from personal experience. My husband has been in the newspaper publishing business for 16 years, in several cities. The doctors and hospitals are a huge source of profits, and they do not hesitate to threaten to pull whenever the content conflicts with their marketing messages.
In other words, write all the opinion pieces you want, but don't expect it to get published if it casts a negative light on mainstream medicine. You might luck out.

yes i experienced this bias when i wrote a rhetoric to the local paper   about their whooping cough article...i included links and all, but my comment never appeared.  

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#42 of 43 Old 10-09-2012, 09:01 AM
 
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What is this belief based on?

 

I expect I'm going to end up getting the varicella vax for my kids, because they haven't, despite repeated attempts, caught wild chickenpox. I'd much rather they had, but I do want to reduce the odds of them catching chickenpox as adults. So, while pro-vaccine people get upset about non-vaccinators messing with herd immunity, I'm upset that herd immunity has kept my kids from catching wild chickenpox at an early age. What was that quote upthread? "You win some, you lose some".

 

There was study from Kaiser a couple years ago that looked at the CP vaccinted popultion for one of it's health regions and found the rate of pediatric shingles to be lower than expected:  http://www.medpagetoday.com/Pediatrics/Vaccines/17337

 

There is also a much older study which I am too lazy to track down just now which looked at kids undergoing chemo for cancer (leukemia, I think?), a population in which pediatric shingles is fairly common, and found that shingles was occurred much more frequently in those who had had natural chickenpox than in those who had had the vax for it. 

 

Of course this is not enough information to reach a solid conclusion about the long term effects of CP vax on shingles rates, and more studies are needed, but it gives a bit of hope.  

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#43 of 43 Old 10-09-2012, 11:43 AM - Thread Starter
 
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pers - interesting thanks. 


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