Studies demonstrating HPV vaccine is both safe and effective - Page 5 - Mothering Forums

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Old 11-16-2012, 05:54 PM
 
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Pek, I keep trying to explain this, I don't know if you have any statistical training, but that's just not true.

Perhaps an example can show the error.
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Old 11-16-2012, 06:03 PM
 
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Unfortunately in the statistics classes I teach which start in May we don't get to that topic until after Christmas, so it's not that simple.

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Old 11-16-2012, 06:17 PM
 
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More avoidance.

Well, I've enjoyed playing tonight, but I must go now. Maybe next time we can be on a new thread, with a new topic, and actual data. That would be refreshing!
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Old 11-16-2012, 06:18 PM
 
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Pek, it's not avoidance to say I can't boil down a junior level undergraduate statistics course to a succinct little forum post for you.  

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Old 11-16-2012, 06:33 PM
 
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Here's some actual data to read: http://www.fda.gov/downloads/biologicsbloodvaccines/vaccines/approvedproducts/ucm111263.pdf


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Old 11-16-2012, 06:48 PM
 
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More avoidance.
Well, I've enjoyed playing tonight, but I must go now. Maybe next time we can be on a new thread, with a new topic, and actual data. That would be refreshing!

 

There's plenty of data on this thread. It just has to be read and understood.

 

Here's a primer regarding statistical power.  You know, they don't just pull these sample sizes out their asses. 

And the point is not to make all groups the same size.  That means nothing.

 

 

http://www.indiana.edu/~statmath/stat/all/power/power.html

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Old 11-16-2012, 08:01 PM
 
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This is not true. The insert shows the rate for the vax, alum control, and saline placebo all broken out separately.

If we are looking at the link you cited (which yes, I read) in some areas reactions are broken out separately, and in some areas they stick the rates for AAHS and saline together.  They seem to separate out the milder reactions, but some of the more severe reactions they lump together.  I get one of the reasons they may do this (the saline group is pretty small - and actually getting data out of that small group on severe reactions might be hard as severe reactions are rarer) - but it still does not give us much information on reaction rate in HPV vaxxed versus unvaxxed. 

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There's no reason that the difference in numbers would stack the odds in favor of gardasil at all. 

 

It could.

 

Some made up numbers to illustrate the point.

 

Incidence of fever in 10 day period following injection:

 

saline - 10%

AAHS - 45%

Gardasil - 60%

 

In the study in question, those in the saline group only made up about 10% of the AAHS/saline contingent.

 

The math on the combined AAHS/Saline group is 41.5 %. (10% of 10%, plus 90% of 45%).

 

Gardasil still has a 60% fever rate, but it looks safer when you compare it to a AAHS/Saline control than when you compare it to Saline alone.


There is a battle of two wolves inside us.  One is good and the other is evil.  The wolf that wins is the one you feed.

 

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Old 11-16-2012, 08:10 PM
 
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Right but aahs is a control. We've already addressed that.
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Old 11-16-2012, 08:14 PM
 
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Right but aahs is a control. We've already addressed that.

Yes - but I think we have also established that some of us are interested in numbers in a saline control group (not a AAHS/saline control group)  

 

I think that has been the bone of contention over the last page.


There is a battle of two wolves inside us.  One is good and the other is evil.  The wolf that wins is the one you feed.

 

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Old 11-16-2012, 08:26 PM
 
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Sure, but you not getting the number you're interested in every single break down you want it in in the summary that has to fit on the insert and not even talking about the full study is not the same as being intentionally mislead or the deck stacked.
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Old 11-16-2012, 08:31 PM
 
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I'm jumping to help Mosaic and HHM to remind everyone to talk issues, not individuals. 


Mama to DD September 2001 and DD April 2011 *Winner for most typos* eat.gif
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Old 11-16-2012, 08:43 PM
 
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Sure, but you not getting the number you're interested in every single break down you want it in in the summary that has to fit on the insert and not even talking about the full study is not the same as being intentionally mislead or the deck stacked.

I read the link you posted, and my critique was of it:

 

http://www.fda.gov/downloads/BiologicsBloodVaccines/Vaccines/ApprovedProducts/UCM111263.pdf

 

Not parsing out the saline/AAHS does not give me the info I want.

 

As per the bolded, I did not say they intentionally mislead or stacked the deck.  I suspect they put the saline and AAHS together as the saline sample size was small.  None the less - putting AAHS and Saline together does affect the numbers, and it makes it difficult for me to say there was a "saline trial."  

 

It is possible the full study completely parses out AAHS and Saline (although I suspect it is doubtful as the saline sample size was small) but I will eat my words with a fork and knife if I am wrong eat.gif

 

Have you read the full clinical trials study and do you have a link?


There is a battle of two wolves inside us.  One is good and the other is evil.  The wolf that wins is the one you feed.

 

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Old 11-16-2012, 08:46 PM
 
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No, unfortunately I dont have an institutional log in that will let me access them. I just thought it was interesting that its said over and over around here that it was never tested with a true saline placebo, but it actually was.
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Old 11-18-2012, 05:57 PM
 
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No, unfortunately I dont have an institutional log in that will let me access them. I just thought it was interesting that its said over and over around here that it was never tested with a true saline placebo, but it actually was.

Oh, for heaven's sake.

It was NOT tested against a true saline placebo.

It was tested against a combination of mostly AAHS "placebo" vaccines, with a very small number of true saline placebos thrown into the mix.

It was never tested against ONLY a true placebo. Neither was the AAHS "placebo."

And you now as well as I do that Merck would never allow the results for both placebos to be released individually., because the results would too obviously point to harmful effects from both Garasil and from e AAHS "placebo."
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Old 11-18-2012, 06:00 PM
 
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Yes it was,taxi. The inserthas the breakdown for several adverse events with aahs and saline separated. Not all studies even used aahs as a control.
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Old 11-18-2012, 06:00 PM
 
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And no aahs was not a placebo. It was a control.
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Old 11-18-2012, 07:28 PM
 
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They did not separate the incidence of systemic autoimmune disorder between saline, AAHS, and Gardasil.

Funny, they don't supply a breakdown for the severe side effect that is most likely caused by aluminum-adjuvanted vaccines, and NOT caused by saline.

Oh, wait, that's right, it's not funny at all, because they did it this way on purpose.
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Old 11-18-2012, 08:04 PM
 
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They don't supply a breakdown in the insert. I'm not sure why that is. Have you read the full studies?
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Old 11-18-2012, 08:55 PM
 
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No. Have you?

 

Perhaps it would be more accurate to say that Merck has not publicized data specifically comparing ALL serious reactions to Gardasil vs AAHS vs true saline placebo/control.

 

Given their track record of hiding data that shows lower efficacy and/or higher rates of serious adverse reactions, it's probable that they've tested these things years ago and decided to hide all unacceptable results from any tests that they've conducted on Gardasil.

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Old 11-19-2012, 08:06 AM
 
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I don't know that they haven't published those results, though, because I haven't seen the full study. Neither have you. Seems like a lot of jumping to conclusions.
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Old 11-19-2012, 10:13 AM
 
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I don't know that they haven't published those results, though, because I haven't seen the full study. Neither have you. Seems like a lot of jumping to conclusions.

The point is, the assumption that HPV is both safe and effective is jumping to conclusions, and ignores the most recent research indicating that aluminum adjuvanted vaccines are causing autoimmune disorders.

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Old 11-19-2012, 10:24 AM
 
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I "jump" to these kinds of conclusions because they do lovely things like test the HPV and other vaccines on unwitting subjects in the third world without informed consent. 

 

The Independent – Without Consent: How Drug Companies Exploit Indian ‘Guinea Pigs’

 

 

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When The Independent visited the pink-painted Government Girls' Ashram and High School in the nearby town of Bhadrachalam, the hostel warden confirmed that health officials had come to the hostel and outlined their plan to vaccinate 300 girls [with Gardasil]. He said that because it was a government project, he had been told he could authorise the trials without parental permission. "
 

 

I wouldn't be surprised if they've hidden data, or done whatever they can to make their product look good. 


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Old 11-19-2012, 11:23 AM
 
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The point is, the assumption that HPV is both safe and effective is jumping to conclusions, and ignores the most recent research indicating that aluminum adjuvanted vaccines are causing autoimmune disorders.

According to you.
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Old 11-19-2012, 11:45 AM
 
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Jumping to conclusions or assuming that data must be hidden just because is about as valid a discussion/debate strategy as my saying "I trust vaccine manufacturers because they want to help the world".


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Old 11-19-2012, 11:49 AM
 
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*Shrug* Where there's smoke there's usually fire.

 

ETA: As far as hypothetically "trusting vaccine manufacturers because they want to help the world" goes so far the data points to corruption and profit motive more than altruism.

 

So "jumping" to conclusions about them is legitimate.


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Old 11-19-2012, 12:27 PM
 
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Pssst, chickabiddy was, I believe, using hyperbole. The fact that the idea is so naive as to be redo cultus is kind of the point.
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Old 11-19-2012, 12:53 PM
 
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Pssst, chickabiddy was, I believe, using hyperbole. The fact that the idea is so naive as to be redo cultus is kind of the point.

 

What idea? That some people " trust vaccine manufacturers because they want to help the world"? 

 

Actually, I bet a lot of the unaware masses who tend to not research this subject like we do very much agree with that statement.

 

But because of its unethical track record (which most of the unknowledgeable public doesn't know about or else they would lose that trust), I will continue to be skeptical about this industry.


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Old 11-19-2012, 01:10 PM
 
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On never mind.
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Old 11-19-2012, 01:23 PM
 
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Pssst, chickabiddy was, I believe, using hyperbole. The fact that the idea is so naive as to be redo cultus is kind of the point.

 

Yes, Rachel gets it!

 

Jumping to conclusions is either legitimate and fair and a sound debate strategy, or it isn't.


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Old 11-19-2012, 02:26 PM
 
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Yes, Rachel gets it!

 

Jumping to conclusions is either legitimate and fair and a sound debate strategy, or it isn't.

Well, then what we are we left with?  Dismissing the clinical trials as discussed in the link because we do not have the full study?   Okay by me.  It hardly changes the real issues that exist with HPV.


There is a battle of two wolves inside us.  One is good and the other is evil.  The wolf that wins is the one you feed.

 

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