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#61 of 83 Old 11-27-2012, 04:23 PM
 
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I think this is the reference you're referring to following and finding good information at?

 

http://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/4/2/98-0210_article.htm

 

Again, just so people can see things for themselves.

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#62 of 83 Old 11-27-2012, 05:27 PM
 
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I think this is the reference you're referring to following and finding good information at?

http://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/4/2/98-0210_article.htm

Again, just so people can see things for themselves.

Actually, this is the link: http://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/pubs/pinkbook/hib.html.

What's interesting is that I followed it from your link the first time but that was didn't see to happen second time around. I'm not sure now how I got to it originally.
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#63 of 83 Old 11-27-2012, 06:36 PM
 
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I did find some more graphs.  They are from a blog so try to avoid reading the commentary if it offends you.

 

http://www.drwile.com/lnkpages/render.asp?vac_effective

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#64 of 83 Old 11-27-2012, 06:40 PM
 
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#65 of 83 Old 11-27-2012, 08:04 PM
 
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Hi All, Thanks for a lively debate. Please remember that if you disagree with the content in a post, you need to respond to and discuss rather then just label it as "fiction." Mirzam, edit your post. (I will send a PM so it's clear which one.) Thanks, HHM


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#66 of 83 Old 11-28-2012, 11:16 AM
 
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TB is not declining on its own. In the US, it is declining due to screening and treatment of latent TB infections with antibiotics. Unfortunately, among immigrant populations in the US, there is no decline.

My point was that it's a highly contagious disease that is declining without mandatory vaccination.
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#67 of 83 Old 11-28-2012, 11:27 AM
 
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These are from australia, but maybe still interesting to you.

http://www.health.gov.au/internet/publications/publishing.nsf/Content/cda-cdi34suppl.htm~cda-cdi34suppl-appendix-6-1.htm

These are interesting graphs. It is definitely helpful to look at other countries. I wonder why chunks of the data are missing from some of them during the 1950s, 60s, and 70s.

When looking at vaccination/disease graphs, I wonder about the peaks and valleys especially after vaccine implementation. It would be interesting for someone to plot vaccination rates against some of these. For example, when I look at the CDC's report on vaccination rates among the various states, it doesn't seem to correlate to states that are having outbreaks. You'd think that areas with low vaccination rates would have higher incidence of disease, or is that flawed thinking?
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#68 of 83 Old 11-28-2012, 11:55 AM
 
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I did find some more graphs.  They are from a blog so try to avoid reading the commentary if it offends you.

http://www.drwile.com/lnkpages/render.asp?vac_effective

This is helpful. Thank you. I'm still fishing around -- trying to follow references. Unfortunately, the reference for one of the more compelling things-- the pertussis graphs that show vaccination rates against incidence -- are not available. In fact, the reference is very vague. It only says "10. Data from the Public Health Laboratory Service Communicable Diseases Surveillance Centre, 61 Colindale Avenue, London NW9 5DF. " Do you have ideas about how to verify that graph? I'm especially lost because it's data from the UK.
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#69 of 83 Old 11-28-2012, 12:17 PM
 
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Suvroc,

Welcome to MDC!

Have you seen these figures from:
Trends in Infectious Disease Mortality in the United States During the 20th Century
http://jama.jamanetwork.com/article.aspx?articleid=768249

I think the link that Rrrrachel sent had a decent argument about looking too much at mortality (http://www.drwile.com/lnkpages/render.asp?vac_effective). I was particularly interested in why polio was increasing prior to 1953 and I think he made a good argument for that, also. For the most part, we are now better able to treat these diseases. But that makes me wonder why we don't focus more on testing, treating, preventive measures, etc.? There are so many vaccines now in such a relatively short time. Our immune system is exactly that -- a system. It's a very complicated system that I'm certain we don't understand nearly enough for us to be messing with it preemptively like we do. Has anyone read about the potential that the chickenpox vaccine may be causing an increase in shingles because they theorize that adults would naturally get 'boosters' by being around children with chickenpox? I guess it doesn't matter so much because now we have a vaccine for shingles but when does it stop?
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#70 of 83 Old 11-28-2012, 05:34 PM
 
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My point was that it's a highly contagious disease that is declining without mandatory vaccination.

 

It's not highly contagious at all.  That's one of the reasons that there is not mandatory vaccination.  It takes very close contact with secretions, and usually household contacts are the main people at risk.  You're very unlikely to catch TB from casual contact with someone.

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#71 of 83 Old 11-28-2012, 05:39 PM
 
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It's not highly contagious at all.  That's one of the reasons that there is not mandatory vaccination.  It takes very close contact with secretions, and usually household contacts are the main people at risk.  You're very unlikely to catch TB from casual contact with someone.

 

I didn't realize this.  Why does my school district require a negative TB test to volunteer in the classroom if it's not likely to be spread by casual contact?  I have issues with the requirement anyway (just because I'm negative today doesn't mean I won't be exposed to TB any time in the next 4 years before another test is required, after all), but if it's not highly contagious, then I really don't get it.


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#72 of 83 Old 11-28-2012, 05:43 PM
 
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I didn't realize this.  Why does my school district require a negative TB test to volunteer in the classroom if it's not likely to be spread by casual contact?  I have issues with the requirement anyway (just because I'm negative today doesn't mean I won't be exposed to TB any time in the next 4 years before another test is required, after all), but if it's not highly contagious, then I really don't get it.

 

Because they're not at all up to date on the latest recommendations.

 

There is no reason in the world why you should need a TB test (I'm assuming you're not a recent immigrant from a country where TB is endemic).

 

Here are the latest recommendations for TB tests:

 

 

Risk Persons at risk
Increased risk due to exposure of infectious cases Persons with recent close contact with person known to have active TB Children <4 years of age
Tuberculin converters*
  Health care workers employed at facilities where persons receive treatment for TB
Increased risk due to individual characteristics Foreign-born persons from countries with high prevalence of TB (Asia, Africa and Latin America)
  Homeless persons
  Persons living or working in a long-term care facility (e.g., nursing home, prison, health care facility, etc.)
Increased risk of active TB once infection has occurred Persons infected with HIV
  Intravenous drug abusers
  Persons with the following medical risk factors
  • End stage renal disease
  • Silicosis
  • Diabetes mellitus
  • Immunosuppressive therapy
  • Hematological malignancy
  • Malnourished or who lost more than 10% of their ideal body weight
  • Gastrectomy or jejunoileal bypass

 

 

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1069093/

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#73 of 83 Old 11-28-2012, 05:45 PM
 
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Interesting.  Sorry to take this OT!

 

Maybe it's a requirement because of our proximity to Mexico?  My kids' school district is probably less likely to be affected than others in the area because we're further north of the border, but perhaps it's a county recommendation rather than by school district.


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#74 of 83 Old 11-28-2012, 05:46 PM
 
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I've had to get to tests for all my teaching jobs, and I'm nowhere near Mexico!
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#75 of 83 Old 11-28-2012, 05:46 PM
 
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It seems the experts are not in agreement about whether or not tuberculosis is highly contagious:

http://www.oxfordimmunotec.com/About_Tuberculosis_North_America
Human tuberculosis (TB) is a highly contagious bacterial infection that is passed from person to person through droplets in the air. It is usually spread by coming in contact with an infected person who is actively coughing or talking. Infection is caused by the bacteria multiplying inside the body, causing tissue and organ damage. Without treatment, half of those with active TB infection will die.

http://www.everydayhealth.com/tuberculosis/how-does-it-spread.aspx
TB is a highly contagious bacterial infection that can quickly spread if not caught, isolated, and treated early. Tuberculosis is an airborne disease, and can be caught by breathing in the air that an infected person has contaminated through:

Breathing
Coughing
Talking
Singing
Sneezing
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#76 of 83 Old 11-28-2012, 05:50 PM
 
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Originally Posted by Bokonon View Post

Interesting.  Sorry to take this OT!

 

Maybe it's a requirement because of our proximity to Mexico?  My kids' school district is probably less likely to be affected than others in the area because we're further north of the border, but perhaps it's a county recommendation rather than by school district.

 

Maybe.  They might be concerned about being accused of discrimination if they only have people who might be recent immigrants from Mexico get tested.

 

However, I see a ton of inappropriate TB testing done.  I think it's mostly done out of habit and not wanting to revise outdated requirements.  A lot of the schools where I live require it, and I'm in New Hampshire, for God's sake.  Not exactly a hotbed of TB activity.

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#77 of 83 Old 11-28-2012, 05:55 PM
 
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It seems the experts are not in agreement about whether or not tuberculosis is highly contagious:
http://www.oxfordimmunotec.com/About_Tuberculosis_North_America
Human tuberculosis (TB) is a highly contagious bacterial infection that is passed from person to person through droplets in the air. It is usually spread by coming in contact with an infected person who is actively coughing or talking. Infection is caused by the bacteria multiplying inside the body, causing tissue and organ damage. Without treatment, half of those with active TB infection will die.
http://www.everydayhealth.com/tuberculosis/how-does-it-spread.aspx
TB is a highly contagious bacterial infection that can quickly spread if not caught, isolated, and treated early. Tuberculosis is an airborne disease, and can be caught by breathing in the air that an infected person has contaminated through:
Breathing
Coughing
Talking
Singing
Sneezing

 

Wait, you're looking to someone who is trying to SELL a TB test for information about how contagious TB is?????  Talk about an unreliable source!!!

 

As for your everyday health site- well, I don't know who the "experts" are that you are claiming there.  Possible the same ones trying to sell the TB test.

 

Here, try this.  http://www.health.ny.gov/diseases/communicable/tuberculosis/fact_sheet.htm

 

And this:  http://www.mayoclinic.com/health/tuberculosis/DS00372/DSECTION=causes

 

 

Or you can look at the case of Andrew Speaker, the guy who flew from Europe with active MDR TB on a jet full of people.  No one else got it.

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#78 of 83 Old 11-28-2012, 06:14 PM
 
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I apologize if I mis-spoke but I could have sworn that I read that at the CDC as I have been spending most of my time on government sites. I can visualize the page but can no longer find it. Though, it's interesting to me that TB is spread through the air (form the CDC) and is one of the most common infectious diseases in the world (from the CDC), yet is not very contagious
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#79 of 83 Old 11-28-2012, 06:23 PM
 
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I apologize if I mis-spoke but I could have sworn that I read that at the CDC as I have been spending most of my time on government sites. I can visualize the page but can no longer find it. Though, it's interesting to me that TB is spread through the air (form the CDC) and is one of the most common infectious diseases in the world (from the CDC), yet is not very contagious

 

TB is fascinating.  It is spread through the air.  However, it is not all that pathogenic.  It often goes into a latent phase (that's what TB tests check for) when it is not contagious at all.  However, under certain conditions of immunosuppression, or just long-term infection, it can become active, at which time it can be spread.  Even so, it usually takes prolonged contact to spread it.  

 

Many countries in the developing world have a big problem with TB for several reasons.  First of all, it has that long latent period where it can not be spread.  Second, in the developing world people are more likely to be living in very close quarters.  Third, and this is the biggie, proper treatment of TB requires up to 18 months of daily medication.  Miss a few pills, you get resistance.  Proper access to medical care and a strong public health sector to ensure compliance with the treatment regimen is key.  THIS is why rates of TB are falling in the US, but rising in other parts of the world.

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#80 of 83 Old 11-28-2012, 06:25 PM
 
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I apologize if I mis-spoke but I could have sworn that I read that at the CDC as I have been spending most of my time on government sites. I can visualize the page but can no longer find it. Though, it's interesting to me that TB is spread through the air (form the CDC) and is one of the most common infectious diseases in the world (from the CDC), yet is not very contagious

Okay, according to CDC, TB infection is not contagious. TB disease IS contagious. I'm new so I apologize for taking this off topic but I do think it is relevant to vaccine conversation but not relevant to the topic of this particular board.
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#81 of 83 Old 11-28-2012, 08:03 PM
 
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Wait, you're looking to someone who is trying to SELL a TB test for information about how contagious TB is?????  Talk about an unreliable source!!!

 

 

 

And this is different from looking to someone who is trying to SELL vaccines for information on how safe and effective vaccines are?  Well, golly gee whiz, what an unreliable source!!!

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#82 of 83 Old 11-28-2012, 09:40 PM
 
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If the drop in disease were due to hygiene and sanitation, you would expect all diseases to start going away at about the same time. But if you were to look at the graph for polio, for example, you would see the number of cases start to drop around 1955 – the year the first polio vaccine was licensed. If you look at the graph for Hib, the number drops around 1990, for pneumococcal disease around 2000 — corresponding to the introduction of vaccines for those diseases.”

 

I believe this point is worthy of a debate thread of its own - polio and improved hygiene ... starting a new thread ...


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#83 of 83 Old 11-29-2012, 04:24 AM
 
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And this is different from looking to someone who is trying to SELL vaccines for information on how safe and effective vaccines are?  Well, golly gee whiz, what an unreliable source!!!

 

Do you not see the difference between a scientific study that is industry-funded and ad copy?

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