Influenza outbreak in 99% vaccinated population - Mothering Forums

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#1 of 19 Old 10-29-2014, 09:07 AM - Thread Starter
 
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Influenza outbreak in 99% vaccinated population

.... so much for herd immunity.

http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/mm6342a3.htm
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#2 of 19 Old 10-29-2014, 09:32 AM
 
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Herd immunity, in theory, is when a high percentage of the population is protected through vaccination/wild cases thus making it difficult for a disease to spread because there are so few susceptible people left to infect.

The flu vaccine is around 50-60% effective in an average year according to most studies.

That efficacy is not high enough to have any sort of "herd immunity" kick in, even with high vaccination rates. I don't think we can discuss flu vaccine and herd immunity in the same breath.
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#3 of 19 Old 10-29-2014, 10:07 AM - Thread Starter
 
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Herd immunity, in theory, is when a high percentage of the population is protected through vaccination/wild cases thus making it difficult for a disease to spread because there are so few susceptible people left to infect.

The flu vaccine is around 50-60% effective in an average year according to most studies.

That efficacy is not high enough to have any sort of "herd immunity" kick in, even with high vaccination rates. I don't think we can discuss flu vaccine and herd immunity in the same breath.
It was a tongue in cheek remark, Kathy. However you are very generous to the flu vaccine with regard to its efficacy. Have you read Peter Doshi's BMJ's report?

http://sellingsickness.com/wp-conten...eter-Doshi.pdf

http://www.newsmaxhealth.com/Headlin.../16/id/504942/
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#4 of 19 Old 10-29-2014, 10:27 AM
 
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It was a tongue in cheek remark, Kathy.

Yes, I got that I was just putting in defintions and PSA's for newbies.


However you are very generous to the flu vaccine with regard to its efficacy. Have you read Peter Doshi's BMJ's report?

Maybe? The name sounds very familiar. I will check it out in a second.

Honestly, I think the flu vaccine and how it is used is crapola. The 50-60% is in healthy older children and healthy adults. It is less effective by quite a lot in young children, the elderly, the immuno-compromised or the obese. It may only last 3-4 months. Although people are told to get it yearly, there is some evidence it is more effective if you get it every other year. There is some evidence that getting the flu shot makes you more susceptible to other illnesses floating around.


http://sellingsickness.com/wp-conten...eter-Doshi.pdf

http://www.newsmaxhealth.com/Headlin.../16/id/504942/
>>>
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#5 of 19 Old 10-31-2014, 09:33 PM
 
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Kathy, the "50-60% efficacy" does NOT mean that a vaccine protects 50-60% of the time.

That figure compares the number of vaccinated who get the disease vs the number of unvaccinated who get the disease.

With flu, according to Doshi, and the Cochrane Review, and Cidrap, the percentage of vaccinated who get the flu is something like 1.4%, which sounds like the flu shot is really effective, until you realize that the percentage of unvaccinated who get the flu is around 2.37%.

1.4 is 59% of 2.37.

Or, as Doshi put it, you have to vaccinate 100 people in order to prevent ONE CASE of flu in a typical year.

The best scenario is, if the vaccine strains are an exact match the circulating strains, you'd still have to vaccinate 30 people to prevent one case of flu. One out of 30.

Yeah, I see why they like to say "60% efficacy!" Sounds much better, doesn't it?
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#6 of 19 Old 11-01-2014, 05:30 AM
 
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I am well aware of what 50-60% efficacy means, thanks.

I agree they deliberately muddle things by discussing efficacy without prevalence.

If this is just a FYI for anyone new to vaccine research, that is fine then.


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Originally Posted by Taximom5 View Post
Kathy, the "50-60% efficacy" does NOT mean that a vaccine protects 50-60% of the time.

That figure compares the number of vaccinated who get the disease vs the number of unvaccinated who get the disease.

With flu, according to Doshi, and the Cochrane Review, and Cidrap, the percentage of vaccinated who get the flu is something like 1.4%, which sounds like the flu shot is really effective, until you realize that the percentage of unvaccinated who get the flu is around 2.37%.

1.4 is 59% of 2.37.

Or, as Doshi put it, you have to vaccinate 100 people in order to prevent ONE CASE of flu in a typical year.

The best scenario is, if the vaccine strains are an exact match the circulating strains, you'd still have to vaccinate 30 people to prevent one case of flu. One out of 30.

Yeah, I see why they like to say "60% efficacy!" Sounds much better, doesn't it?
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#7 of 19 Old 11-03-2014, 08:57 AM
 
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Speaking of Peter Doshi, this was posted today and is a good read. http://www.forbes.com/sites/stevensa...g-nor-correct/

As this blogger and other science bloggers have pointed out, he has no qualifications in vaccination or immunology. He's "an anthropologist who studies comparative effectiveness research" who has never conducted any influenza research at John Hopkins. He's also an HIV/AIDS denier, which many other bloggers have also pointed out.

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#8 of 19 Old 11-03-2014, 09:02 AM
 
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Speaking of Peter Doshi, this was posted today and is a good read. http://www.forbes.com/sites/stevensa...g-nor-correct/

As this blogger and other science bloggers have pointed out, he has no qualifications in vaccination or immunology. He's "an anthropologist who studies comparative effectiveness research" who has never conducted any influenza research at John Hopkins. He's also an HIV/AIDS denier, which many other bloggers have also pointed out.

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#9 of 19 Old 11-03-2014, 09:03 AM - Thread Starter
 
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Originally Posted by teacozy View Post
Speaking of Peter Doshi, this was posted today and is a good read.

As this blogger and other science bloggers have pointed out, he has no qualifications in vaccination or immunology. He's also an HIV/AIDS denier, so there's that.
Straight from the Vaccine Proponents Playbook again - if you have nothing to back up your view, then try and assassinate with groupthink.

And Dr Gorski is a breast surgeon.

Nothing wrong with being an AIDs denier, it show that someone has a brain and can think for themselves. The BMJ seemed to be okay with publishing a paper by him.


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#10 of 19 Old 11-03-2014, 09:07 AM
 
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This is another good read on Doshi for those interested.

http://thepoxesblog.wordpress.com/20...ine-activists/

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#11 of 19 Old 11-03-2014, 09:11 AM
 
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Straight from the Vaccine Proponents Playbook again - if you have nothing to back up your view, then try and assassinate with groupthink.

And Dr Gorski is a breast surgeon.

Nothing wrong with being an AIDs denier, it show that someone has a brain and can think for themselves. The BMJ seemed to be okay with publishing a paper by him.
His 2013 BMJ article was an opinion piece, not an original research article.

And yes, it probably matters to a lot of people (or it should) that he has no qualifications in vaccines or immunology and that he signed a petition disputing the fact that HIV causes AIDS. It sure as heck would matter to me.

It may not bother you, but lurkers might feel otherwise.

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#12 of 19 Old 11-03-2014, 09:13 AM - Thread Starter
 
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Here's a good read on "Dr" Gorski, for those interested.

http://childhealthsafety.wordpress.c...rsk_is_a_liar/


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#13 of 19 Old 11-03-2014, 09:26 AM
 
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Speaking of Peter Doshi, this was posted today and is a good read. http://www.forbes.com/sites/stevensa...g-nor-correct/

As this blogger and other science bloggers have pointed out, he has no qualifications in vaccination or immunology. He's "an anthropologist who studies comparative effectiveness research" who has never conducted any influenza research at John Hopkins. He's also an HIV/AIDS denier, which many other bloggers have also pointed out.

I really am ok with reading the writings of an anthropologist who studies comparative effectiveness research. I find the gambit of "he is not qualified enough!" a game some people (not necessarily you) play when they do not like what the other person has to say. I also think there is some value in reading across disciplines on issues.


I will look up whether he is an AIDS denier. I personally am not, although I am hardly an expert or even a lay expert on the topic. In any event, I am sure people are perfectly capable of getting it right in one area and not in another.


The Forbes link did not work for me and the Poxes did not discuss any Aids denial. Got any other evidence? Preferably primary source (really would not trust Orac or the like to interpret statements properly)

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#14 of 19 Old 11-03-2014, 09:43 AM
 
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@Kathy , that's weird that the Forbes article doesn't work for you.

He doesn't deny that he signed this petition http://aras.ab.ca/rethinkers.php

It sounds like he doesn't like what it has done to his reputation. From the forbes link:

"Perhaps even more disturbing is that Doshi signed a petition arguing that the HIV virus is not the cause of AIDS, joining the ranks of HIV denialists. He signed this statement while still a graduate student, so I contacted him to ask if he still doubted the link between HIV and AIDS. I also asked him if he supports flu vaccination, if he agrees with the anti-vaccine movement’s use of his statements, and if he believes the flu is a serious public health threat.

On the question of signing the HIV/AIDS petition, Doshi responded that “Seeing how my name was published and people have misconstrued this as some kind of endorsement, I have written the list owner and asked for my name to be removed.” He declined to state directly that he agrees that the HIV virus causes AIDS—though I gave him ample opportunity."

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#15 of 19 Old 11-03-2014, 09:52 AM - Thread Starter
 
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Forbes...

Obviously Doshi has learned that if you go against group think you suffer the professional consequences. It takes a lot a courage for a scientist to speak out against the HIV/AIDS hypothesis.

Anyway, merely diversion tactics teacozy. Not playing.
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#16 of 19 Old 11-03-2014, 09:54 AM - Thread Starter
 
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So where does this leave the policy of hospitals that require staff to be vaccinated for the flu (or get fired) to protect patients, when the flu vaccine clearly does not work?
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#17 of 19 Old 11-03-2014, 10:05 AM
 
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It takes a lot a courage for a scientist to speak out against the HIV/AIDS hypothesis.
As of today (or within the last 2-3 days), it looks like he has removed his name from the list.

I checked the petition just a few days ago when I read your post on this thread and his name was there. Was going to write a response but ran out of time. Now it looks like it's gone.

Meryl Dorey's name is still there, however

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#18 of 19 Old 11-03-2014, 10:17 AM - Thread Starter
 
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As of today (or within the last 2-3 days), it looks like he has removed his name from the list.

I checked the petition just a few days ago when I read your post on this thread and his name was there. Was going to write a response but ran out of time. Now it looks like it's gone.

Meryl Dorey's name is still there, however
Good for Meryl! Where can I sign.


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#19 of 19 Old 11-03-2014, 10:48 AM
 
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Sued for discrimination would be nice


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So where does this leave the policy of hospitals that require staff to be vaccinated for the flu (or get fired) to protect patients, when the flu vaccine clearly does not work?
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