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#1 of 648 Old 01-17-2015, 02:05 AM - Thread Starter
 
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Measles at DisneyLand

I'm surprised there's been no discussion of the measles outbreak at Disneyland here…

http://www.npr.org/blogs/health/2015...-to-disneyland

From the NPR article (now slightly out of date as I believe now there are many more cases)

Quote:
The patients range in age from 8 months to 21 years. Of the seven California cases, six had not been vaccinated. Two were too young to have been vaccinated; the first of two recommended measles vaccine doses is typically given at 1 year of age.

Just one of the cases was fully vaccinated. Harriman said that while the measles vaccine is highly effective, conferring lifelong immunity in 99 percent of people who receive two doses, there will always be a small number of people who can get infected despite being vaccinated.
Updated stats on number of infections here: http://www.cbsnews.com/news/disney-m...s-and-answers/

Come on then non-vax crow - how is that the fault of vaccinations and/or vaccinators? Perhaps it is a Big-Pharma conspiracy to scare people into getting the MMR vaccine...?

Mother of two living in UK. Daughter (2007) born in USA, son (2010) born here. I'm pro natural birth, midwife care, breastfeeding, co-sleeping, baby wearing and a keen advocate of cloth diapering. I'm a full time working research scientist (physical sciences). Vaccines save lives.
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#2 of 648 Old 01-17-2015, 02:27 AM
 
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Originally Posted by prosciencemum View Post
I'm surprised there's been no discussion of the measles outbreak at Disneyland here…

http://www.npr.org/blogs/health/2015...-to-disneyland

From the NPR article (now slightly out of date as I believe now there are many more cases)



Updated stats on number of infections here: http://www.cbsnews.com/news/disney-m...s-and-answers/

Come on then non-vax crow - how is that the fault of vaccinations and/or vaccinators? Perhaps it is a Big-Pharma conspiracy to scare people into getting the MMR vaccine...?
There was/is a whole thread on this in the other section.
Yea. Non-vaccers are just filled with measles ready to pop out at any moment! I did post links since its documented that one can be vaccinated and still spear the disease.
It originated some place, I know it's easy to push all the blame on non-vaccers first.
CDC has not released if this is wild or vaccine related and since they did do testing blaming the non-vac isn't accurate with out that information-IMO
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#3 of 648 Old 01-17-2015, 06:06 AM
 
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Actually, the best discussion of this that I've seen is one on hospital spread infections, which infect 2 million a year and kill at least 23,000.

Very little news coverage. It isn't treated as an epidemic. There isn't a huge drive to control this health care disaster.

Strikes me as very weird. How about you?

And yes, infants and adults coming down with measles is entirely due to the vaccination program. The vast majority of cases, back when I was a kid, were in children. School age children. Vaccination programs change illness demographics and increase the risk to groups where the illness is higher-risk.
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#4 of 648 Old 01-17-2015, 06:36 AM
 
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Originally Posted by prosciencemum View Post
I'm surprised there's been no discussion of the measles outbreak at Disneyland here…

http://www.npr.org/blogs/health/2015...-to-disneyland

From the NPR article (now slightly out of date as I believe now there are many more cases)



Updated stats on number of infections here: http://www.cbsnews.com/news/disney-m...s-and-answers/

Come on then non-vax crow - how is that the fault of vaccinations and/or vaccinators? Perhaps it is a Big-Pharma conspiracy to scare people into getting the MMR vaccine...?
I don't think it is anyones fault. Measles is highly contagious. Someone, vaxxed or not, was exposed somewhere and in all likelihood went to Disneyland pre symptoms, not even realising they had measles. A bunch of people, vaxxed or not, got the disease. In the case of the non-vaxxed, that is a chance they willingly take. As per the vaxxed... no vaccine is 100% effective.

I said this on INV, but it is worth repeating here:

"Diseases exist. Not everyone can vax, not everyone wants to vax, and no vaccine has 100% efficacy. Most communicable diseases do not have vaccines. Going out in public means you risk getting a contagious disease of some sort. Some places are worse than others - and Disneyland, with its crowds, is certainly a hotspot for transmission. There are things you can do to reduce the likelihood of a disease being transmitted to you, but if you cannot tolerate any risk then you should not be there."

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#5 of 648 Old 01-17-2015, 07:18 AM
 
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I don't really think it's accurate to describe children as "willingly" accepting risk. They are children. Their parents made the choice to vax or not.

Statistically, the issue with measles is that the vaccine is highly effective at preventing the spread (over 95% who get vaxxed have immunity) whereas the disease spreads extremely quickly among non vaccinated. Some other vaccines are not nearly as effective, such as the flu vaccine.

I for one am not taking my kid to Disneyland any time soon.
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#6 of 648 Old 01-17-2015, 07:31 AM
 
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[QUOTE=marsupial-mom;18367522]I don't really think it's accurate to describe children as "willingly" accepting risk. They are children. Their parents made the choice to vax or not.

Statistically, the issue with measles is that the vaccine is highly effective at preventing the spread /QUOTE]

There is proof the vaccine does shed-I had posted those links in the other section.

It's slso accurate to say if your child is immune compromised and you take them to a populated public place you are placing them at risk. Are those children willingly as risk? IMO yes, those parents are negliant for taking their children out. Immune compromised ALSO can and do spread diseases.

No idea why the quote didn't work?!
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#7 of 648 Old 01-17-2015, 07:48 AM
 
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Kathleen Harriman, chief of vaccine preventable diseases for the state, said that "it's our speculation that there was an [infected] international visitor at one of the parks, and that person or persons was able to infect a lot of people."
I wonder why they suspected an international visitor. Also, I wonder how these measles patients will fare--will they all die or will they recover without incident?

 
 
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#8 of 648 Old 01-17-2015, 08:11 AM
 
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I don't really think it's accurate to describe children as "willingly" accepting risk. They are children. Their parents made the choice to vax or not.

.
I assumed that would be understood.


Yes, parents are the ones who choose to risk vaccine damage or disease.
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#9 of 648 Old 01-17-2015, 08:19 AM
 
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I wonder why they suspected an international visitor. Also, I wonder how these measles patients will fare--will they all die or will they recover without incident?

Well, it is possible they really do suspect an international visitor based on some evidence.


It is also possible it is a xenophobic, anti foreigner thing. We never see that (snort).


I predict all will recover. If anyone doesn't (and I hope that is not the case) it will be the first time on USA soil someone has died of measles in a very long time. Decades, perhaps...but I would need to Google it. On the other hand, about 15 people a year die in the USA from falling icicles.

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#10 of 648 Old 01-17-2015, 08:45 AM
 
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Do we know who patient zero is?

Because...

http://www.eurosurveillance.org/View...rticleId=20649

Quote:
In this report we describe a case of measles-mumps-rubella (MMR) vaccine-associated measles illness that was positive by both PCR and IgM, five weeks after administration of the MMR vaccine....
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Maurice Hillman speaking on the live virus measles vaccine approved in 1963: "It provides high level and lasting immunity and is a paradigm for solving major medical problems without really understanding them."
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#11 of 648 Old 01-17-2015, 04:56 PM
 
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Originally Posted by prosciencemum View Post
Perhaps it is a Big-Pharma conspiracy to scare people into getting the MMR vaccine...?
Knock it off.
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#12 of 648 Old 01-17-2015, 05:27 PM
 
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Yeah, that's pretty snarky isn't it?

 
 
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#13 of 648 Old 01-17-2015, 06:08 PM
 
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That is the latest pro-vaccine game which I've been seeing all over the place.

Claiming that the anti-vaccine movement is actually a pharmaceutical ploy. Usually the story is that dropping vaccination rates benefit pharma by providing more people who need drugs. This is the same idea, but a slightly modified twist--a faked outbreak to raise vaccination rates.

Oh well. If one sort of nonsense doesn't work, just try some other sort of nonsense.

But I'll assume in this case that you are joking, pro.
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#14 of 648 Old 01-17-2015, 06:57 PM
 
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Supposedly, there are now 51 children with measles.
http://touch.latimes.com/#section/-1.../p2p-82562307/

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All children? That seems odd.
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#16 of 648 Old 01-17-2015, 07:40 PM
 
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Applejuice, that article is suggesting that
Quote:
the virus spread from perhaps a single infected person or an ill family.
First an immigrant, now this. I guess the single infected person or family could be immigrants, but it's entertaining how they jump from assumption to assumption. Of course nobody would ever suspect a vaccinated person, nope. Let's keep an eye out for any mainstream news article that entertains that possibility!
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All children? That seems odd.
Yes it is odd.

There should be some adults with measles for whom the vaccine has worn off.
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When you think about how many hundreds if not thousands of people were exposed to patient zero there, it really is remarkable that so far there only seems to be one or two fully vaccinated people that have come down with measles.

A person only has to breathe the same air as someone contagious with measles within 2 hours of them being in the room to contract it. Think about the many gift shops, restaurants, and indoor attractions this person likely went to. Then when you add in the hundreds of people you come into close contact with waiting in long lines for multiple rides it really is an amazing testament to how effective the vaccine is that more fully vaccinated people haven't become infected.



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When you think about how many hundreds if not thousands of people were exposed to patient zero there, it really is remarkable that so far there only seems to be one or two fully vaccinated people that have come down with measles.
Where is the official breakdown you are referring to? Did the CDC or the Calf/Utah dept of health officially release this info? Wild strain or vaccine induced? Links??

I have seen no official reports that show who did or did not have the vaccine.
Some reports (in news outlets) use "partially" vaccinated (one dose?) and each initial report states 2 that were not of the age to receive the first does. I see no calls to immunize those under the current recommend age to get vaccinated either, seems odd if this is an outbreak they aren't recommending doing that.

Why someone takes a child to a place dominated by children, many within the one dose threshold is beyond me, but what ever. One dose, 75% immunity plus throw in those who are immune comprised and bring along those too young to be vaccinated, comes off as irresponsible IMO

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Supposedly, there are now 51 children with measles.
http://touch.latimes.com/#section/-1.../p2p-82562307/
I have seen reports patient zero is 20.

Without official documents it's just speculation.
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Where is the official breakdown you are referring to? Did the CDC or the Calf/Utah dept of health officially release this info? Wild strain or vaccine induced? Links??

I have seen no official reports that show who did or did not have the vaccine.
Some reports (in news outlets) use "partially" vaccinated (one dose?) and each initial report states 2 that were not of the age to receive the first does. I see no calls to immunize those under the current recommend age to get vaccinated either, seems odd if this is an outbreak they aren't recommending doing that.

Why someone takes a child to a place dominated by children, many within the one dose threshold is beyond me, but what ever. One dose, 75% immunity plus throw in those who are immune comprised and bring along those too young to be vaccinated, comes off as irresponsible IMO
"Most of the children and young adults in California who contracted measles in an outbreak linked to Disneyland and Disney California Adventure Park hadn’t been fully vaccinated against the disease, state health regulators said.

Twenty-eight people in California have come down with measles linked to the adjoining Walt Disney Co. parks and just three were fully vaccinated, the state’s Department of Public Health said in an e-mail Thursday."

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2015-0...tate-says.html

One dose is over 95 percent effective, not 75%.

"How effective is MMR vaccine?
More than 95% of the people who receive a single dose of MMR will develop immunity to all 3 viruses. A second vaccine dose gives immunity to almost all of those who did not respond to the first dose."
http://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/vpd-vac/...-vac-risks.htm

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Do we know who patient zero is?

Because...

http://www.eurosurveillance.org/View...rticleId=20649
We know she is an unvaccinated "young woman".

"A measles outbreak at Disneyland, stemming from an unvaccinated young woman dubbed patient zero, has shone a light on such dichotomies. Officials have confirmed at least 32 cases, almost all of them unvaccinated.

Patient zero became sick and contagious on 28 December, while at Disneyland. She flew to Snohomish County in Washington state for a few days, then returned to Orange County on 3 January. Health officials announced the outbreak on 7 January.

Her proximity to crowds at the theme park and airports and on planes helped spread the the extremely contagious virus: state health departments in Colorado, Utah and Washington have confirmed cases."

http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2...cination-trend

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#23 of 648 Old 01-18-2015, 10:23 AM
 
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We also know she is a California resident.

"A wave of measles cases traced to Disneyland threatens to spread farther. An unvaccinated California resident infected in the outbreak traveled by plane between Orange County and Seattle-Tacoma International Airport during the holidays, health officials said.

The number of measles cases stemming from the outbreak has risen to 26 and now involves Washington state, Utah and Colorado.

The airline passenger, a woman in her 20s, fell ill after visiting Disneyland in December and became contagious on Dec. 28. She flew from Orange County to Seattle on Dec. 29, stayed with family in Washington’s Snohomish County and returned to Orange County on Jan. 3. She wasn’t diagnosed until Jan. 8 in California, health officials in Washington state said.

The passenger flew to Seattle on Alaska Airlines Flight 505 on Dec. 29, a Washington health official said. She returned to Orange County on Jan. 3 on Virgin America Flight 1780."

http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/l...113-story.html

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"Most of the children and young adults in California who contracted measles in an outbreak linked to Disneyland and Disney California Adventure Park hadn’t been fully vaccinated against the disease, state health regulators said.
that still does't answer what I'm asking, this is not an official release, not a CDC release and no information on the clinical confirmation as to the strain

fully meaning not the two dose- that still doesn't add up to 99% effectiveness rate for one dose - the math isn't there
if 2 are unvaccinated (meaning no vaccine at all) the rest either had one dose and it didn't reach the 99% effectiveness rate and the other(s) had a total vaccine failure

we are not so far even looking at one hundred people, that's not a hip hip raw raw for vaccine effectiveness IMO

http://www.wsj.com/articles/six-more...eak-1421352063

Of the 10 total cases in San Diego, only one patient had been vaccinated, Mr. Sturak said. Exact figures weren’t immediately available for other areas.
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20 is an adult last time I checked, news reports of all kids is not factually accurate, imagine that - misinformation!

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#26 of 648 Old 01-18-2015, 10:39 AM
 
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One dose is not 99% effective. Two doses are 99% effective.

I'll have to look later for more precise numbers, but one dose is not considered fully vaccinated against measles. We obviously expect more one dose people to get measles than two dose people, hence the second dose being added to the schedule.

In San Diego county alone, there have been 10 confirmed cases. Nine were unvaccinated.

http://health.usnews.com/health-news...isney-outbreak

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#27 of 648 Old 01-18-2015, 11:17 AM
 
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One dose is not 99% effective. Two doses are 99% effective.

I'll have to look later for more precise numbers, but one dose is not considered fully vaccinated against measles. We obviously expect more one dose people to get measles than two dose people, hence the second dose being added to the schedule.

In San Diego county alone, there have been 10 confirmed cases. Nine were unvaccinated.

http://health.usnews.com/health-news...isney-outbreak

One out of 10, that would mean 10 out of 100 not reaching immunity, that is not 95-99% effective last time I did math!

95-99% for one dose, doesn't seem to compute

You stated previously 95-99% for one dose - meaning low end 5 out of 100 would not get immunity, 50 people that makes it 2.5, 25 people 1.5 - we are talking 39 thus far, two (all ccounts of news seem to indicate about the same, says under the age) so 37 and reports do not show how many of those 37 are not fully/partially but they DO use that term, they are NOT saying 37 UN-vaccinated - It should mean at best 2 would not have immunity and that is even a stretch saying two had not reached immunity after one dose but if one out of 10 that is not adding up to even 95%

IF it was 37 and all were UN-vaccinated I'm sure that would have come out and it didn't.

I like how the 20/21 year old is being viewed, a child?? Funny I can't find any Jenny comments from 19 years ago where she was pushing not to vac! and we are so lead to think this is "new" and that celebrities have everything to do with it!


Without a full accounting of just how many had only one dose (not fully/partially vaccinated) it's pure speculation IMO that this is what is expected as "normal" for vaccine immunity.

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#28 of 648 Old 01-18-2015, 11:37 AM
 
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Do they know where from she was exposed to measles?

Serenbat, you made some very important points.

What strain was the measles?

Was she really never vaccinated? How about the others? The term "unvaccinated" seems to be used interchangeably with "not vaccinated with today's standard which is two or more doses of MMR".

I just read elsewhere how the Scottish Health dept. is not recognizing monovalent measles vaccines as vaccination at all. So even if you've had a couple single measles vaccine, you are still considered "unvaccinated".
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Maurice Hillman speaking on the live virus measles vaccine approved in 1963: "It provides high level and lasting immunity and is a paradigm for solving major medical problems without really understanding them."
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#29 of 648 Old 01-18-2015, 11:52 AM
 
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Do they know where from she was exposed to measles?

Serenbat, you made some very important points.

What strain was the measles?

Was she really never vaccinated? How about the others? The term "unvaccinated" seems to be used interchangeably with "not vaccinated with today's standard which is two or more doses of MMR".

I just read elsewhere how the Scottish Health dept. is not recognizing monovalent measles vaccines as vaccination at all. So even if you've had a couple single measles vaccine, you are still considered "unvaccinated".
Not officially releasing a statement IMO is quite concerning. An "email" sent to a reporter is simply not proof, not when headline state "children" and patient ZERO is 20 or 21!

I really think there are key words, like I said, they certainly have not come out and said these (kids, children, what ever) are ALL totally void of ANY MMR. Dance around it all you can, IMO

Odd, they are not pushing to vaccinated under 12 months either.
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#30 of 648 Old 01-18-2015, 01:42 PM
 
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One out of 10, that would mean 10 out of 100 not reaching immunity, that is not 95-99% effective last time I did math!

95-99% for one dose, doesn't seem to compute

You stated previously 95-99% for one dose - meaning low end 5 out of 100 would not get immunity, 50 people that makes it 2.5, 25 people 1.5 - we are talking 39 thus far, two (all ccounts of news seem to indicate about the same, says under the age) so 37 and reports do not show how many of those 37 are not fully/partially but they DO use that term, they are NOT saying 37 UN-vaccinated - It should mean at best 2 would not have immunity and that is even a stretch saying two had not reached immunity after one dose but if one out of 10 that is not adding up to even 95%
That's actually not how statistics work.

It's not just how many people who came down with measles were vaxxed, unvaxxed or partially vaxxed. It also matters how many people in each group were exposed. And it matters how exposed they were (did they have close personal contact or were they merely within 500 feet?).

When the CDC says that the measles vaccine is 95% effective after just one dose, that means that only 5% of people who have received one dose AND who are exposed to the virus are likely to get it. It does NOT mean that 5% of the people who come down with measles will have been vaccinated with one dose.
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